AC Milan will be back in action on Sunday evening, taking on Napoli away from home. After two disappointing defeats, the Rossoneri are aiming to bounce back with a strong performance and send a message to their rivals.
Stefano Pioli and his men are still second in the league with 21 points, one point behind Inter, but their form hasn’t been great in the last week. Tomorrow’s encounter with Napoli is the third game in seven days and after two defeats, a win is almost a must.
During today’s press conference, Pioli stated that tomorrow’s game is a chance for Milan to show their true value, even if it won’t be easy. He also made it clear that he doesn’t intend to change the way the Rossoneri play, staying true to the set identity.
Game date: Sunday, October 29
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET)
Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Referee: Daniele Orsato (VAR: Marini)
Team news
There are quite a few absences for Pioli to deal with, but Luka Jovic and Noah Okafor have both recovered from muscle fatigue and will be available tomorrow. That leaves the following five players on the injury list: Marco Sportiello, Mattia Caldara, Ismael Bennacer, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Samuel Chukwueze.
Malick Thiaw will also miss out on the action due to his suspension, following the red card against Juventus last week. In short, the situation is far from ideal for Pioli especially considering that this is the third game in just seven days.
Compared to the game against PSG, Pioli is expected to make just one change to the XI, as per Sky Italia. Davide Calabria will be back from start after doing well off the bench last time out, with Pierre Kalulu moving into the centre of the defence instead.
The midfield and the attack will stay the same, which some Milan fans may not be too happy about. Rade Krunic had a very tough evening against PSG and will be looking to redeem himself, while Olivier Giroud needs to show that he still can make a difference at this level.
Simon Kjaer is still in the running for a starting spot, but Kalulu is currently ahead and a change of heart appears unlikely for Pioli.
Probable Milan XI (4-3-3): Maignan; Calabria, Kalulu, Tomori, Hernandez; Musah, Krunic, Reijnders; Pulisic, Giroud, Leao.
The opponents
Napoli have had a strange start to the season with ups and downs not just on the pitch, but also off it. The whole debacle regarding Victor Osimhen – which stemmed from some controversial TikTok videos – emerged off the back of two wins, two draws and one loss in the league and certainly didn’t make the situation any better.
However, Rudi Garcia’s men have impressed since then with three wins out of four, even if the anomaly was a disappointing 3-1 loss against Fiorentina. A win tomorrow would bring them back to the very top, currently just four points behind Milan in the standings, and would increase their chances of defending the Scudetto.
Just like Milan, Garcia is dealing with a couple of absences and the main one is obviously Osimhen. The star striker is struggling with a hamstring injury and will thus be replaced by Giacomo Raspadori, who scored the winner against Union Berlin earlier this week.
Zambo Anguissa has recovered from his recent injury struggles but will not be in the starting eleven tomorrow. He will be replaced by the Swede Jens Cajuste and you only need a quick look to understand that he’s the weak link in an otherwise very strong midfield.
Probable Napoli XI (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrhamani, Natan, Mario Rui; Cajuste, Lobotka, Zielinski; Politano, Raspadori, Kvaratskhelia.
Head to head
Milan have been rather successful away at Napoli in recent years. In fact, they have won the last three games there and could reach four consecutive wins for the first time in the club’s history. Having said that, the overall H2H is even as the Partenopei have won the last three league games at San Siro.
Last season, Pioli’s men really asserted themselves in the games against Napoli. They battered them in the league clash away from home, scoring four goals, and also knocked them out of the Champions League quarter-finals.
Leao’s solo run in the UCL tie comes to mind, setting up Giroud for a decisive goal, and the winger also scored two lovely goals in that league trashing.
Match facts…
➤ Napoli have lost only three of their last nine league matches against Milan (W3 D3), however did lose the most recent match (0-4 last April); they last lost consecutive matches against the Rossoneri in Serie A back in February 2011, under Walter Mazzarri.
➤ Milan have won their last three Serie A away matches against Napoli; in their history they have never recorded more consecutive victories against the Partenopei on the road in the top-flight.
➤ Napoli have won on three of the last four occasions in which they’ve faced Milan having fewer points than them in the table at the start of the matchday (17 compared to the Rossoneri’s 21 in 2023-24), with the most recent such win back in December 2021 (1-0); Milan’s only win in that time was in November 2020 (3-1).
➤ Despite their defeat to Juventus last time out, Milan have won seven of their first nine matches in Serie A this term and they could record as many as eight victories in the first 10 games played in a single Serie A season for the third time in the last four league seasons, as many times as they did in the previous 63 campaigns.
➤ Napoli have lost two of their last three home games in Serie A (W1), as many defeats as in their previous 23 home league games. After the defeat against Fiorentina, the Partenopei could record two home defeats in a row in the competition for the first time since December 2021 (a run of three, against Atalanta, Empoli and Spezia).
➤ Milan are, along with Burnley and Aston Villa, one of the three teams that have neither scored nor conceded a headed goal in the big five European leagues this season.
➤ Napoli (7) and Milan (9) are the two teams to have scored the most goals in the second third of the match (between the 31st and 60th minute of play) in Serie A this term. Indeed, the Neapolitan team are the only side to have scored 10 goals in both first and second half of the matches in the current league season.
➤ Piotr Zielinski has scored four Serie A goals against Milan, his joint-most against an opponent in the competition (also against Udinese, including his first brace in the competition (August 2018, Napoli 3-2 Milan). The Napoli player is the only midfielder with double figures for assists since the start of last season in Serie A (10), while overall only Rafael Leão (11) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (13) have more.
➤ Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has had 14 shot-ending carries and seven chance-creating ending caries in Serie A this season (21 combined), only Ousmane Dembelé has a higher such tally (22) across the big five European leagues for 2023-24.
➤ Rafael Leão has been involved in seven goals in his last eight matches against opponents starting the matchday in the top five positions of the Serie A table (5 goals and 2 assists), including a brace at Napoli in April – prior to then he had been involved in just four goals in 19 previous matches against these teams in the competition.
Ones to watch
Rafael Leao needs to be at his best tomorrow as Milan have lacked creativity up front in the last few games. He knows how to punish Napoli but the Rossoneri fans are right to be worried, as the winger’s recent form has been poor.
Another player to keep an eye on is Theo Hernandez, who also has been quite underwhelming in the last few weeks. Just like Leao, he can decide a game on his own and Milan need him to assert himself on that left-hand side, occupying the opponents.
For the home side, Giacomo Raspadori will have a lot of responsibility in Victor Osimhen’s absence. On the other hand, his mid-week goal is surely a boost ahead of the clash. He’s a player with quick feet and Milan don’t want to give him too much space on the edge of the box.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will also have to step up in the Nigerian’s absence, currently on three goals and four assists for the season. He had big problems against the Rossoneri and above all Davide Calabria last season, so that battle will be interesting.
Prediction
It’s a very tough game to predict given Milan’s recent form and their recent success away at Napoli. It really hasn’t looked good for Pioli’s men lately, though, and the feeling is that the Partenopei could come out on top this time out.
Napoli 2-1 AC Milan
This has draw written all over it, Napoli is without Osimhen, and now they are heavily dependent on Kvara for their goals. So I will go with an easy 1-1 draw.
Of course Piolis baby boy Krunic is starting. Spider Rico over here…
This Web page has very good prediction rate. Usually they make good guess on who will win
I hope this time they will not guess. This is most important game for our season.
Champions league is not important.
Napoli 5 milan 1.
Lol – I think it will have goals though, 2-3..
Napoli 7-0, Pioli to be sacked and Abate to takeover eventually winning the treble for the first time in our history and Giroud scoops up the Balon d’Or. My prediction
2-0 for napoli. We will enter a goal scoring crisis and our midfield and defense will fail today. Expect a total failure result for the week of fire