There is little room for error in this November 28 matchup between two clubs frantic to make it out from the most difficult group of the UEFA Champions League this season.
These two teams last met in Group F on October 4 at Signal Iduna Park, where they played to a spirited 0-0 draw.
Borussia Dortmund faces AC Milan in the rematch at the renowned San Siro Stadium in Italy next week. A victory is crucial for Dortmund and AC Milan to avoid being eliminated early from this season’s competition.
Form guide
Milan may have been more relieved than the majority when international football was interrupted earlier this month; despite a strong Champions League performance, they had fallen from the Serie A summit and were once again in pursuit.
Similar to their German adversaries, the seven-time European champions will be in a crucial position to secure victory in front of an anticipatory home audience, having advanced to the semi-finals of the previous season.
Their last encounter with Dortmund in the Champions League group stage occurred in 2002-03, and both teams advanced one game each prior to Milan’s tournament victory.
The 2023/24 Serie A campaign commenced with impressive victories for Stefano Pioli’s squad over Bologna, Torino, and Roma. However, that perfect start was short-lived as they suffered a humiliating 5-1 loss to rivals Inter Milan.
The derby loss prompted the Rossoneri to produce the required response, as they went unblemished until November, with five games featuring clean sheets during this time.
Milan must now prepare for their Champions League match against Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday, which could ultimately determine who advances to the quarterfinal round. Three days prior, the club must host a formidable opponent in Fiorentina. A loss would result in three consecutive league home losses, which the Rossoneri’s discerning proprietors could not tolerate before an all-important European match.
AC Milan: Previous 6 Matches
|
7.10.2023 |
Lecce |
2-2 |
Milan |
It1 |
|
30.9.2023 |
Milan |
2-1 |
PSG |
UCL |
|
24.9.2023 |
Milan |
0-1 |
Udinese |
It1 |
|
16.9.2023 |
Napoli |
2-2 |
Milan |
It1 |
|
2.9.2023 |
PSG |
3-0 |
Milan |
UCL |
|
29.8.2023 |
Milan |
0-1 |
Juventus |
EFL Cup |
Despite possessing a youthful squad, Borussia Dortmund has effectively implemented a robust system that even seasoned players can respect.
BVB, who failed to secure their first league championship in eleven years on the final day of the previous campaign, have suffered two domestic defeats and currently occupy the fourth position, two points behind the Bundesliga leaders.
Since their UCL debut loss of 2-0 at Paris Saint-Germain, Dortmund has gone unblemished in their subsequent European meetings, including consecutive victories over Newcastle and a scoreless draw at the hands of AC Milan on Matchday 2.
By fusing the tenacity of youth with the sturdiness of experience, BVB will be well-positioned to make a splash in this formidable group and possibly advance to the Europa League by securing third place.
Undoubtedly, attention must be paid to the goalscoring department, as they have scored just three goals in three games during the competition. They will not have an easier time against a parsimonious Milan defence; therefore, they must maximise the number of errors they force and seize the opportunities that present themselves.
Borussia Dortmund: Previous 6 Matches
|
11.11.2023 |
Stuttgart |
2-1 |
Dortmund |
De1 |
|
07.11.2023 |
Dortmund |
2-0 |
Newcastle |
UCL |
|
04.11.2023 |
Dortmund |
0-4 |
Bayern Munich |
De1 |
|
01.11.2023 |
Dortmund |
1-0 |
Hoffenheim |
DFB |
|
29.10.2023 |
Frankfurt |
3-3 |
Dortmund |
De1 |
|
25.10.2023 |
Newcastle |
0-1 |
Dortmund |
UCL |
The odds
Milan 21/20
Draw 11/4
Dortmund 3/1
Unsurprisingly, the established sports betting sites for the UK have positioned The Rossoneri as next week’s UCL favourites versus Dortmund. With the home advantage and an impressive 2-1 success over PSG on home soil last time out, it’s hard to argue against this pricing.
AC Milan vs. Borussia Dortmund: Head-to-Head
|
04.10.2023 |
Dortmund |
0-0 |
Milan |
UCL |
|
18.07.2017 |
Milan |
1-3 |
Dortmund |
Champs Cup |
|
18.03.2003 |
Milan |
0-1 |
Dortmund |
UCL |
|
11.12.2002 |
Dortmund |
0-1 |
Milan |
UCL |
Prediction
Given the significant consequences at stake and their respective positions in the UCL group stage, Milan is more adept at managing the pressures of this match while maintaining the support of the home crowd. However, Dortmund will employ a well-thought-out strategy to frustrate and drive their hosts to the limit.
Because goals are crucial, the game has the potential to flow openly, and while I believe Pioli’s side is the rightful favourites, backing over 2.5 goals is the most viable wagering option.
Milan vs. Dortmund Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 9/10
Milan vs. Dortmund Score Prediction: 2-1
