AC Milan will be looking to give a much better account of themselves than they did in London when they welcome Chelsea to San Siro on Tuesday night.
Milan were a long way from their best in the return fixture as Graham Potter got his first Champions League win thanks to goals from Wesley Fofana, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Reece James, with the Blues running out comfortable 3-0 winners.
As Stefano Pioli said in his pre-match press conference, the loss at Stamford Bridge must act as nothing other than a motivation to spur his side on given that Group E is becoming increasingly compact.
Game date: Tuesday, 12 October
Kick-off time: 21:00 (CEST)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Sieber (VAR: Fritz)
Team news
As mentioned above, the loss against Chelsea combined with Red Bull Salzburg getting a win over Dinamo Zagreb means that the group is now very crowded, with the Austrian side leading the way on five points, then Milan and Chelsea each on four and Dinamo on three.
There is still an injury crisis for Stefano Pioli to deal with compared to the first leg as the treatment room seems to be a revolving door at the moment, with more players sustaining problems just as others recover.
Charles De Ketelaere did a workout in the gym rather than on the field on Monday as he is struggling with a muscle strain. The Belgian will therefore not be available.
That means the list of absences has grown to include Davide Calabria, Simon Kjaer, De Ketelaere, Alexis Saelemaekers, Alessandro Florenzi, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Mike Maignan.
Junior Messias did do some work on the pitch, but it was away from the rest of the squad and therefore it is almost certain that he will miss the match too.
We saw somewhat of a hybrid of a 4-2-3-1 and a 4-3-3 during the win over Juventus, and it seems Pioli will stick with that thinking. As has been reported by Sky Sport Italia on Monday evening, it seems likely that Rade Krunic will come into the starting eleven in place of Tommaso Pobega and that will be the only change to the starting XI.
Milan got a very impressive 2-0 win against a lacklustre Juventus side on Saturday evening which was the perfect prep for the match against Chelsea at San Siro which takes place at 21:00 local time on Tuesday.
That means that Ciprian Tatarusanu will continue to deputise for the injured Mike Maignan, and Matteo Gabbia will keep his place in the back four along with Fikayo Tomori, Pierre Kalulu and Theo Hernandez.
The midfield three will be Ismael Bennacer, Sandro Tonali, and Krunic. The forwards will be Rafael Leao, Olivier Giroud and Brahim Diaz.
Probable Milan XI (4-3-3): Tatarusanu; Kalulu, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Tonali, Bennacer, Krunic; Brahim Diaz, Leao, Giroud.
The opponents
Chelsea are coming into the game off the back of three wins in a row, with the run started by a last-minute league victory over Crystal Palace and the 3-0 victory over Milan then followed up on Saturday by the same scoreline against Wolves.
Potter is now on a roll, and what will have made him even happier is that such a comfortable victory against Wolves came after he made seven changes to the team that beat Milan in midweek as he admitted to taking precautions ahead of the visit to the San Siro.
“Thiago [Silva] had a heavy cold at the start of the week but played against Milan,” Potter said
“Two days to recover is really short for him, so we didn’t want to take the chance there. Ben Chilwell playing three games in a week recovering from an ACL injury, that wouldn’t have been the smartest thing to do to put him out there, especially when we’ve got Marc Cucurella.
“Reece James had a dead leg that wasn’t fully recovered yesterday, so we wanted to give him a bit of extra time and use him at the back end of the game rather than the start.
A struggling Wolves side were no match and reported Milan target Armando Broja scored his first senior goal for Chelsea, who will be eyeing the potential of securing a double over the Rossoneri plus taking top spot in the group depending on the score in Zagreb.
As reported by the official Chelsea website, there were three Chelsea players who skipped the last training session before the squad left for Milano. The players are Wesley Fofana – who came off with a knee injury during the win over Milan – as well as midfielder N’Golo Kantè and winger Hakim Ziyech.
It can be tough to predict Potter teams, but reports are suggesting Kepa Arrizabalaga will stay in goal as a reward for back-to-back clean sheets, with Reece James and Ben Chilwell as the wing-backs either side of Trevoh Chalobah, Thiago Silva and Kalidou Koulibaly as the back three.
Jorginho and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are tipped to be the starting double pivot with doubts about Mateo Kovacic’s condition, then Mason Mount and Raheem Sterling should supply Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Probable Chelsea XI (3-4-2-1): Kepa; Chalobah, Thiago Silva, Koulibaly; James, Loftus-Cheek, Jorginho, Chilwell; Sterling, Mount; Aubameyang.
Head to head
Chelsea and Milan were even heading into the first meeting last week when it comes to the head-to-head meetings between the two sides as each had won one game apiece out of the five games played, but the Premier League side now have the advantage given their victory.
The first three games between the Rossoneri and the Blues came back in the 1965-66 edition of the InterCities Fairs Cup, where Chelsea went through via a coin toss after a 3-3 draw on aggregate after two leads and a 1-1 after extra-time in a play-off.
Both games in the 1999-00 Champions League group stages were draws, with no goals at Stamford Bridge and a 1-1 tie in the return leg at San Siro.
Match facts…
➤ Milan are winless in five meetings against Chelsea in Europe (D3 L2) since winning the very first match between the two sides in the Fairs Cup in February 1966. Having lost last week, Milan have never previously lost consecutive games against the Blues.
➤ Chelsea only allowed four shots against Milan last time out. Since Opta have this data available for the UEFA Champions League, the Blues have only faced fewer in a game in the competition twice, doing so vs Malmö FF in October 2021 (two) and vs Galatasaray in March 2014 (three).
➤ Milan have lost four of the last five games when hosting an English team in the UEFA Champions League, with their only victory coming against Arsenal in February 2012 (4-0). The only previous time they hosted Chelsea in the competition was in a 1-1 draw in the first group stage in October 1999.
➤ Chelsea’s last away win against an Italian side in the UEFA Champions League was against Lazio back in November 2003 (4-0). Since then, the Blues are winless in their last seven away trips to face Italian teams in the competition (D1 L6), losing each of the last five in a row between 2010 and 2021.
➤ Milan ended a run of six UEFA Champions League home matches without victory (D3 L3) on MD2, beating Dinamo Zagreb at San Siro. The Rossoneri could win consecutive home matches in a single season in the competition for the first time since 2011-12 against Viktoria Plzen and BATE Barisov.
➤ This is Chelsea’s second away game in Europe this season, losing the first against Dinamo Zagreb on MD1 in what Thomas Tuchel’s final game in charge of the club. The Blues have never previously lost each of their first two away games in a European campaign.
➤ Rafael Leão has been directly involved in four goals in seven games to date for AC Milan in the UEFA Champions League, scoring once while setting up three goals. Leão leads all Milan players in the competition this season for assists (2), touches in the opposition box (18) and dribbles completed (8).
➤ Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling has been directly involved in 23 goals in his last 30 starts in the group stages of the UEFA Champions League (15 goals, 8 assists), including scoring or assisting in each of his last two starts this season.
➤ Fikayo Tomori has initiated more sequences of play than any other player in the UEFA Champions League this season, with the AC Milan defender regaining possession for his side 47 times in three games.
➤ Chelsea defender Thiago Silva could make his 100th UEFA Champions League appearance in this game (currently on 99), becoming the fifth Brazilian player to reach this milestone in the competition, after Roberto Carlos (120), Dani Alves (111), Fernandinho (103) and Marcelo (102).
Ones to watch
With Wesley Fofana out injured, Milan’s danger man Rafael Leao will have a new opponent to battle in Trevoh Chalobah (or potentially Cesar Azpilicueta) and with Theo Hernandez also back available, the battle between Milan’s left side of Leao-Theo versus Chelsea’s right with James-Chalobah will be crucial.
One area that Milan lost the game in west London was the midfield as Tonali and Bennacer often found themselves overrun by the quick ball movement and the inability of the forwards to provide an outlet, and then Tomori must respond with a big performance after a shaky one back at his former club.
Speaking of playing against an old side, Aubameyang will be looking to cause damage to his ex-club Milan just as he did last week when he netted the second goal, with Sterling key to feeding him in transition.
Loftus-Cheek had a good performance against Milan but with Jorginho next to him rather than Kovacic there feels more of a chance to target the middle, while finally Thiago Silva vs. Giroud will be another duel between wise veterans.
Prediction
Last week’s game exposed some of Milan’s shortcomings in terms of squad depth and being able to cope with a side that couple quick vertical movement of the ball with quality. There is more optimism after the win over Juve, but the Diavolo will have to be much more streetwise and ultimately avoiding another defeat could be a positive result.
AC Milan 1-1 Chelsea
I’m fully confident that Milan will win, it’s hard to win in San siro.
2-0 Ac Milan