AC Milan will host Napoli in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League quarter-final tie at San Siro on Wednesday night.
Milan will play in their first Champions League quarter-final since the 2011-12 campaign tomorrow as they welcome Napoli in an all-Italian battle between the current champions and the team now almost certain to take the crown.
Stefano Pioli said in his pre-match press conference that he believes that dreaming is good for his side ahead of what will be a ‘180-minute match’ against the Partenopei, with a spot in the final four of the competition on the line.
Game date: Wednesday, April 12
Kick-off time: 21:00 (CEST)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Istvan Kovacs (VAR: Fritz)
Team news
Though Luciano Spalletti’s men are over 20 points ahead in the league and will soon win only their second Scudetto, Milan provided a reminder of how good they can be by beating them 4-0 in Naples 10 days ago.
There is some positive news on the injury front for Milan as well, with Sky among the sources to confirm that every player in the Champions League squad list will be available to Pioli tomorrow night.
Not only does that mean that Junior Messias is back to full fitness, but also that Pierre Kalulu has fully recovered from the muscle problem in his calf that he sustained while with the France U21 national team as he did the whole session with the rest of the group on Tuesday.
According to what is being reported by Sky, Pioli should stick with the XI that won 4-0 at the Maradona which means Mike Maignan will be in goal with Davide Calabria, Simon Kjaer, Fikayo Tomori and Theo Hernandez as the back four.
Sandro Tonali and Rade Krunic should be the deeper midfielders with Ismael Bennacer ahead of them tasked with pinning Stanislav Lobotka, while Rafael Leao, Brahim Diaz and Olivier Giroud complete the attack.
Pioli opted to rotate on Friday night as Malick Thiaw, Tommaso Pobega, Alexis Saelemaekers, Ante Rebic and Divock Origi all came into the side but failed to deliver three points, so they will be back on the bench.
Probable Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Krunic, Tonali; Brahim Diaz, Bennacer, Leao; Giroud.
The opponents
Napoli rebounded with three points after their embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Rossoneri just over a week ago as they beat Lecce 2-1 in what was far from a dazzling performance but was one that took them three points closer to the league title.
However, that win came at a cost. According to reports from Sky’s correspondent at the Napoli training camp (via MilanNews), Osimhen left the Castel Volturno sports centre early on Tuesday and therefore he will not be called up for the first leg against Milan.
The forward has not yet recovered from the muscle problem he sustained with the Nigerian national team, but it gets worse. Giovanni Simeone underwent a scan after the injury he picked up against Lecce in the league which showed a first degree strain of the right hamstring.
The Argentine striker will be out for two to three weeks and therefore will miss not only tomorrow’s Champions League quarter-final first leg against Milan, but also the return leg on April 18.
Moreover, Giacomo Raspadori trained individually on Tuesday leading to suggestions from local media that a ‘false nine’ adaptation could be used such as Elif Elmas, given the lack of available centre-forwards.
Nevertheless, Sky believe Raspadori will be given the start in attack with Lozano and Kvaratskhelia either side of him. The midfield trio should remain unchanged from the 4-0 defeat earlier in the month with Anguissa, Lobotka and Zielinski tipped to start.
Meret is virtually certain to get the nod in goal with Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Kim and Oliveira expected to form the back four, meaning Mario Rui – who had a torrid time in the last game – would miss out.
Probable Napoli XI (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Kim, Oliveira; Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski; Lozano, Raspadori, Kvaratskhelia.
Our squad for Milan 🫵#UCL #MilanNapoli pic.twitter.com/d8mrArGdCz
— Official SSC Napoli (@en_sscnapoli) April 11, 2023
Head to head
Milan have played against Napoli 171 times in their history across all competitions, winning 68 of them with 52 draws and 51 losses. That’s a win rate of just 39.8%, the lowest against any opponent they have played over 100 times barring Torino, Inter and Juventus.
The Rossoneri’s record against the Neapolitans is better when it comes to knockout ties however. The teams have squared off 17 times in the Coppa Italia, with Milan winning nine games, losing four and drawing four.
The most recent one-off game resulted in a 2-0 home win for Gennaro Gattuso’s Milan in 2018-19 in the quarter-finals of the cup (brace from Piatek), while over two legs it was back in 1989-90 when the Diavolo reached the final with a 3-1 aggregate win.
Match facts…
➤ This will be the first meeting between Milan and Napoli in European competition. Milan have only lost one of their nine all-Italian matchups in Europe (W4 D4), while Napoli have one win and one defeat against fellow Italian clubs outside of domestic football.
➤ Milan have won just one of their last nine home games against Napoli in all competitions (D3 L5), with that victory coming in the Coppa Italia quarter final in 2018-19. Indeed, Napoli have won each of their last three away games against Milan (all in Serie A), including a 2-1 victory earlier this season.
➤ Napoli have won each of their last three away matches against AC Milan, their best ever such run against them. Nonetheless, Napoli have failed to win any of their last five away games against Milan in cup competitions (D2 L3).
➤ Milan have reached the quarter-final stage of the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 2011-12 when they were eliminated by Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona. They last went beyond the quarter-finals in 2006-07 when they last won the competition.
➤ Napoli have reached the quarter-final stage of the European Cup/Champions League for the first time in their history. They were eliminated by Arsenal in their last European quarter-final appearance in the 2018-19 UEFA Europa League.
➤ Milan have stopped the opposition from scoring in each of their last four matches in the UEFA Champions League. They last recorded five or more consecutive clean sheets in Europe during the 2004-05 campaign, when they eventually finished as runners-up to Liverpool.
➤ Napoli are the top scorers in this season’s UEFA Champions League with 25 goals, while only FC Bayern München (8) have won more matches in the competition this term (7). Their average of 3.1 goals per game is currently the fifth-best in a single campaign, after Bayern in 2019-20 (3.9), PSG in 2017-18 (3.4), Real Madrid in 2013-14 (3.2) and Liverpool in 2017-18 (3.2).
➤ Milan have won just three of their most recent 16 knockout stage matches in the UEFA Champions League (D4 L9), failing to score in 10 of those 16 matches (63%). Milan lost six of their 37 knockout matches in the competition between 1992-93 and 2006-07, while they have lost nine of 16 since 2007-08.
➤ Napoli have four joint-top scorers in the UEFA Champions League this term: Victor Osimhen, Piotr Zielinski, Giovanni Simeone and Giacomo Raspadori (4). The last Italian side with as many different players scoring 4+ goals in a single edition was 2002-03 finalists Juventus (Del Piero, Nedved, Di Vaio and Trézéguet).
➤ Olivier Giroud has scored four goals in the UEFA Champions League this season for AC Milan – the last player to score 5+ goals in a single edition of the competition for the club was Zlatan Ibrahimovic in 2011-12 (5).
Ones to watch
Milan’s midfield was described as having ‘asphyxiated’ Napoli during the 4-0 win in Naples, so how the trio of Bennacer, Krunic and Tonali operate will be crucial in winning the battle for supremacy, especially if the Algerian plays more advanced to disrupt Lobotka again.
Leao and Brahim are the main threats in attack and will look to provide for Giroud, but it feels as though if Calabria and Kjaer can stop Kvaratskhelia again – with help from the midfield – it would go a long way towards a first leg win.
Speaking of the Georgian, the fact he has 30 goal contributions in 32 games this season domestically and in Europe shows that he really will be tasked with leading the Napoli attack, especially if they are forced to play without a recognised striker.
Spalletti will also be banking on Anguissa and Lobotka not struggling as much as they did in the recent meeting, while Di Lorenzo and Rrahmani must do a better job limiting the space Leao has to operate in.
Prediction
It feels like – given what is on the line – this could be worlds away from the match at the Maradona which produced four goals one way. A real cat and mouse game could develop with Napoli hoping to take care of business at home in the second leg, with Milan having to push but not too much.
Of course, it is possible both sides might be happy to take the game to a one-off second leg shootout because a blowout either way this time around feels very unlikely.
AC Milan 1-1 Napoli
Milan didn’t won at home against Napoli for a many games now… So this is big opportunity for Milan to win home game. Good defence and only 1 goal is enough.
no, we need more than 1 goal. We need atleast 2 or 3 goal margin against them. We have to beat them more than 1 goal and that’s for sure.