AC Milan will make the trip to the French capital to take on Paris Saint-Germain in the third game of their Champions League group stage campaign on Wednesday night.
For Milan the mission is simple: to try and put the 1-0 defeat to Juventus on Sunday behind them by getting a first win in Europe in 2023-24, but it is far easier said than done against a PSG side stacked full of talent.
Stefano Pioli said in his pre-match press conference that while their hosts have a plethora of attacking talent he is aware that they play as a unit, but that sitting and waiting would be dangerous.
Game date: Wednesday, October 25
Kick-off time: 21:00 (CEST)
Venue: Parc des Princes
Referee: Slavko Vinčić (VAR: Kajtazovic)
As mentioned, Milan come into the game off the back of a frustrating 1-0 defeat against Juventus which was heavily conditioned by the first half red card that Malick Thiaw got.
Pioli had to battle having eight absentees for the match against the Bianconeri, and there are at least a couple of positive notes heading into the trip to France with at least two players certain to return.
Mike Maignan and Theo Hernandez were out at the weekend due to suspension and will come back into the side after serving that ban, with the two Frenchmen no doubt keen to make an impression on home soil.
Rade Krunic and Pierre Kalulu recovered over the break, while Ruben Loftus-Cheek is not 100% and has not been called up after training individually all week.
Loftus-Cheek joins the known long-term absentees Ismael Bennacer and Mattia Caldara who are both recovering from surgeries on their knee and ankle respectively.
Samuel Chukwueze returned early from international duty with Nigeria because of a hamstring injury which will keep him out a month, while Marco Sportiello developed a calf issue in training and will be out for eight weeks.
Davide Bartesaghi suffered an ankle injury just before the Juve game and was not be called up, meaning there are doubts about whether he will be available, but he did leave with the team.
Alongside Theo and Maignan, the rearguard is likely to be completed by Fikayo Tomori and Malick Thiaw as well as Pierre Kalulu on the right, given he has greater speed and physicality to try to contain Mbappé.
Tijjani Reijnders and Yunus Musah are expected to keep their place in midfield with Rade Krunic preferred to Yacine Adli. The attacking trident will almost certainly be made up of Christian Pulisic, Olivier Giroud and Rafael Leao.
Probable Milan XI (4-3-3): Maignan; Kalulu, Thiaw, Tomori, Theo; Musah, Krunic, Reijnders; Pulisic, Giroud, Leao.
The opponents
Last season was a familiar one for PSG as they again managed to scoop domestic honours by winning Ligue 1 and the Trophée des Champions, but they fell short of their ultimate goal which was European glory, losing 3-0 on aggregate to Bayern Munich in the Champions League last 16.
There were plenty of changes that took place as a result. Lionel Messi departed for the United States, while this is the first season since 2016–17 without Neymar – who left for Saudi Arabian club Al Hilal – and the first since 2011–12 without Italian midfielder Marco Verratti, who went to Qatari club Al-Arabi SC.
Luis Enrique was also hired as the head coach, and if you aren’t familiar with his type of football then expect a high line, a lot of possession and rapid circulation of the ball, which a recent article we published went into more depth on.
In terms of transfer business, there was an obvious aim to try and get a younger and deeper squad, with big investments made in each department.
Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola, Ousmane Dembele and Gonzalo Ramos arrived to replenish the attack. Marco Asensio, Manuel Urgarte and Lee Kang-in joined the midfield, while Lucas Hernandez and Milan Skriniar were the big defensive additions.
There were plenty of exits too, like Neymar and Verratti but also Julian Draxler, Abdou Diallo, El Chadaille Bitshiabu, Georginio Wijnaldum, Mauro Icardi and Leandro Paredes.
PSG so far have 18 points from their nine league games having won five, drawn three and lost once, but they currently sit behind both Monaco and OGC Nice in the table.
The defeat came against Nice at home, while in their most recent game they won 3-0 at home against Strasbourg with both Mbappe and Ramos scoring.
In the Champions League the Parisians won 2-0 at home against Dortmund in the first group game but then got hammered 4-1 away against Newcastle in what was a counter-attacking masterclass from Eddie Howe’s side.
In terms of injury problems, Enrique is currently without left-back Nuno Mendes, centre-back Fresnel Kimpembe, goalkeeper Sergio Rico and forward Marco Asensio.
There was some rotation during the win at the weekend as the likes of Soler, Pereira, Lee and Barcola were all given a start.
In terms of the current predicted side, Gianluigi Donnarumma should be in net against his old side while Achraf Hakimi and Milan Skriniar – two former Inter players – plus the ex-Roma man Marquinhos and Theo’s brother Lucas Hernandez will be the back four.
In the midfield three, Manuel Ugarte is likely to start in the middle, flanked by Zaire-Emery and Vitina. The front three will probably be Kylian Mbappé, Goncalo Ramos and Dembele.
Probable PSG XI (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Skriniar, Marquinhos, L. Hernandez; Zaire-Emery, Ugarte, Vitinha; Dembele, G. Ramos, Mbappé.
Head to head
Milan have played PSG four times in their history across all competitions and are so far yet to lose a game against them, with two wins and two draws.
The first two meetings came in the semi-finals of the 1994-95 Champions League, in which the Rossoneri won the first leg in Paris 1-0 thanks to Zvonimir Boban’s injury-time goal, then finished the job 2-0 at San Siro with Dejan Savicevic scoring both.
Fabio Capello’s side would go on to lose the final that year against Ajax, with Patrick Kluivert’s 85th-minute winner the only goal in Vienna as Milan were unable to defend their title.
The other two games against PSG were in the 2000-01 group stages and both ended 1-1. Anelka cancelled out Leonardo’s opener at San Siro, while at the Parc des Princes Jose Mari’s 90th-minute goal denied PSG after Laurent Robert’s opener.
Match facts…
➤ No side have Paris Saint-Germain faced more in the Champions League without ever winning than Milan (4), losing twice in 1994-95 (semi-final), and drawing twice in 2000-01 (second group stage).
➤ Paris have won their last three meetings with Italian sides in all competitions, beating Juventus home and away in the Champions League group stages last season. They’d only won two of their first 20 against such sides before this (D9 L9).
➤ Milan have lost just three of their 16 Champions League games against French sides (W8, D5) – the 1993 final against Marseille, a 2002-03 group stage game at Lens, and at home to Lille in the 2006-07 group stages. This is their first such match since winning both games against Auxerre in 2010-11.
➤ Paris Saint-Germain lost 4-1 at Newcastle last time out – they’ve not lost consecutive games in the same Champions League group stage since their first two matches in the 2004-05 campaign, which was the last time they failed to progress to the knockout rounds of the competition.
➤ Both of Milan’s Champions League games this season have finished 0-0. In the competition’s history, only Club Brugge between November 2018 and September 2019 have had three consecutive goalless draws, while the last time a team had three 0-0s in the same group stage was back in 2005-06 (Lille, Liverpool, Man Utd and Villarreal).
➤ Since their return to the competition regularly in 2012, Paris have lost just one of their 34 Champions League group stage home games (W27 D6), going down 2-1 against Manchester United in October 2020.
➤ Following a 3-0 aggregate defeat to Inter in last season’s semi-final, and two goalless draws so far this season, Milan have failed to score in their last four Champions League matches. It’s their longest run without a goal in all European club competition history.
➤ So far this season only Manchester City (55) and Real Madrid (50) have had more shots in the Champions League than Milan (39), though the Rossoneri remain without a goal so far.
➤ Only Manchester City (71.8%) have a higher average possession so far in this season’s Champions League than Paris Saint-Germain (70.5%). Their 73.1% possession against Newcastle as their third highest total on record (since 2003-04) in a single match in the competition.
➤ Since the start of 2017-18, PSG’s Kylian Mbappé has been involved in more Champions League group stage goals than any other player (46 – 26 goals, 20 assists), with the Frenchman averaging a goal or assist every 65 minutes in this round of the competition since then.
Ones to watch
The numbers show why Mbappe is not only PSG’s danger man but one of the best players in the world right now, and with nine goals in 10 games so far this season he remains the biggest threat, one both Kalulu/Calabria and Thiaw will likely have to mark.
That could free up space for their other forwards like Kolo Muani or Ramos to exploit, then in midfield Fabian Ruiz is the lynchpin and he knows Milan well given his past at Napoli.
For Lucas Hernandez it is a family affair with his brother Theo, while also at the back Skriniar and Hakimi are familiar with the Rossoneri after their respective spells at Inter.
Giroud is without an open play goal since August and returning to his home country could be the right way to end that drought, while Leao’s runs on the counter to exploit the attacking tendencies of Hakimi could be key too.
The midfield three will all have to perform but particularly Reijnders – when he has a subdued game it seems to rub off on the team. Meanwhile, Maignan and Theo must make up for their absences in Sunday’s loss.
Prediction
There has been a lazy media narrative surrounding PSG’s supposed ‘decline’ given the star power they have lost, but you can make a solid argument they are stronger and deeper in each department now. This will be a very tough game, and a negative result – which we fear – could make qualifying very tough.
PSG 2-1 Milan
I won’t be surprised if we lose this, but this is a do-or-die game for us to qualify for RO16, especially if Newcastle wins against Dortmund. We know how good we can be playing under pressure and I want to that Milan.
Calabria will pocket Mbappe like he pocketed Kvara.
We can’t win. And also I.think PSG win by handicap…
4-1 lol
.. PSG with one of the highest possession rates? Its going to be a long night for us.
Maybe start Slowbega, park the bus and then bring on pace in the second half 😂😂😂
Draw, 0-0 or 1-1