Twice in the past few days AC Milan’s unbeaten run looked like ending against a team in the bottom five places, but late equalisers salvaged draws.
As MilanNews write, January started well for Milan with a 1-0 victory away from home against Cagliari, though Massimiliano Allegri’s side were far from their free-flowing best. Since then, draws against Genoa at home and Fiorentina away have followed, two sides battling relegation.
They were two games that were very similar in how they went: equalising goals in the final minutes of the match, with the opponents almost scoring after that to win in injury time. Is it fair to talk about a decline? If so, what are the causes?
Condition, rotation, aggression
The team’s driving forces, the key players, are almost all experiencing poor form. Alexis Saelemaekers, Rafael Leao, Christian Pulisic and Adrien Rabiot are indispensable players for Allegri, but each of them, for different reasons, are not at 100% fitness.
The Belgian is always a starter on the right because he does not have an able deputy. For this reason, given his very demanding physical role, it would undoubtedly be necessary to rest him for at least one match.
For Leao and Pulisic, the reason is related to minor physical issues that are preventing the numbers 10 and 11 from performing at their best. Pulisic is battling with a minor hamstring problem, and Leao seems unable to sprint and run as he would like and can because of his adductor.
Finally, Rabiot – who was sidelined for more than a month due to a lesion to the soleus muscle in his left calf – has always played as a starter since his return and perhaps he too could use a bit of a rest. He sustained a knock before the Fiorentina game, and dropped to the bench.
This second reason is closely tied to the physical fatigue of the aforementioned players: rotation, as we saw in Florence, doesn’t provide full guarantees for the coach. Therefore, barring exceptional circumstances, Allegri avoids making any changes to his starting XI except for forced choices.
Koni De Winter got off to a poor start in Milan, though he now appears to be improving. Samuele Ricci and Ardon Jashari are not Modric and Rabiot. Ruben Loftus-Cheek has fallen into another rough patch. Pervis Estupinian and Zachary Atekhame are unreliable at present.
With Santiago Gimenez injured, only Christopher Nkunku was left before Niclas Füllkrug’s arrival. Thankfully, the Frenchman finally seems to have found his feet both in terms of goalscoring and fitness. All of this, as mentioned, leads Allegri to make as few changes to his starting XI as possible.
The third point is also partially linked to the first. If the key players aren’t at their best, the result is that the team play slow and lacks the intensity needed to play a full match. In several games, Milan have practically thrown a half away, or even gifted it to the opponents.
I guess they are very tired….no rest for Christmas 🎄 break…Serie A is like EPL now….no rest at year end or beginning of new year….
And increasing international break will have consequence tighter schedule during winter. Even without Europe competition, player still traveling for their national teams. It consume a lot of energy
Not sure how Athekame is being evaluated here. Few minutes but each time he plays, he shows growth.
Ricci and Jashari are also in similar situations.
The problem, as I see it, is that Allegri must have got a message from Pioli about how to rotate and thought it was brilliant.
Allegri is not using all his subs. We don’t see Jashari at the end of games. We don’t see enough of Athekame or Ricci.
Now we are paying for that lack of effort to integrate our squad players.
The exception is De Winter. He has played more than most other non-starters and we are seeing he is a reliable back up who has the room/ability to grow into more.
It’s a bit of a vicious cycle.
Allegri uses the subs few times, they’re not convincing, leading him to use them even less, which means even less growth for them, which again lead to even less usage,… Actually when you look at it, most of the bench players were used when Allegri had no other choice (injuries, suspension, flu,…).
Furthemore, our habits of winning by such a tight margin (most of our games were won by 1 goal margin) and sometimes a bit late in the game means that the coach can’t really risk subbing out his best players when the game is still on basically.
If were winning à la Bayern or even à la Inter sometimes by 2 goals or more at halftime, we could have saw more substitutions, but when we’re barely scored a goal at the 60th or 70th minute, Modrić or Rabiot are simply going to say for as long as there is risk.
The problem though is not just the lack of substitution as you mentionned, but how the one time we rely on them we throw them all at once in a non-existing system. If Jashari was used sometimes with Fofana and Rabiot in front of them, maybe he could have developped into decent regista by now, but only ever started with a B-team with players not knowing each other very well.
Now some criticism has to be given to the players themselves.
Remember that Bartesaghi was also a substitute player in a position a bit new to him and made use of Estupiñán’s suspension and lack of performance to become our main Left Wingback.
Koni de Winter was heavily criticized all the way to the supercoppa game against Napoli but then managed to use the other defenders’ absence to prove that he can be relied upon.
Ricci has more minutes than De Winter and started in 5 consecutive games when Rabiot was injured in a relatively stable midfield by then. The fact that after that he became the last in the picking order has to be blamed on him, at least partially.
Loftus-Cheek, who is in this team since 2023, has no excuses for me.
I won’t go into Athekame who didn’t play enough for me to properly analyze him and I won’t go into our forwards (Nkunku, Füllkrug and Giménez) given the injury crisis, the lack of familiarity with the position, the new league,…
Part of the sub issue in-game is that we aren’t truly killing off games. We can’t get to 3-0 or 4-1 and give the starters off 20 minutes early. At most, they’re getting 10 here and there. We need to push more in the opening 10 minutes to get goals against the weaker sides. That will force them to open up and make the 2nd goal easier. The bigger teams, it makes sense to sit back and wait for that first goal but part of that player rotation is start the stronger players and use them to push for some early goals then give them rest asap IN-GAME. 20% of games that Modric plays, he should be subbed off at the 70th-75th minute mark. He should not need to play the full 90 for every match he’s in. But that means locking in early and stepping on throats (metaphorically of course.) These passive starts have to stop b/c the stress is also really draining for the players. It does build good team rapport but eventually it starts working against the team.
We sit back for the first 60 minutes regardless of the opponent. Just play with two up front and sit at the back until the opponent scores first.
No, we don’t. If the team sat back as you claimed, we would see that in the stats. You’re confusing a lack of control with sitting back.
The problem is Allegri he must change the information 433
Inter Milan perfected this 3-5-2 formation during Mr Inzaghi’s time as coach, and Mr Allegri adopted it, saw results and became an unbending iron with regards to change. I feel 4-3-3 will make the team more vulnerable as it will expose the defense more but maybe every now and then he can switch to 4-4-2 like Mr Ancellotti did in his time.
Milan should use 433 against weaker teams
Pulisic can play on the right, it’s his preferred position.
Nkunku can play anywhere, including the left wing (41 games, 11 goals 9 assists)
Leao has now learned to play centre forward (to some extent), but clearly isn’t fit and because of Gimenez’s injury, has to keep playing.
We have cover for every position, but because the forwards haven’t been able to stay fit, Allegri cannot rotate as he would have liked.