Despite having the summer to try and fix what was the biggest issue from last season, AC Milan have once again found themselves with more questions than answers when it comes to the defensive department.
Milan let in 69 goals across all competitions last season and 49 in Serie A alone, which are far from the numbers of a team that can realistically compete for silverware. Having to consistently rely on the attack to score goals in bunches was not sustainable, as Stefano Pioli found out when he ultimately lost his job.
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Going into the summer the mission seemed clear: sign at least one starter-level centre-back to try and boost the overall level of the rearguard, and Strahinja Pavlovic arrived from Red Bull Salzburg for a fee widely reported to be in the region of €18m plus bonuses. Problem solved, right?
Sadly not, because Milan are still letting in over one goal per game on average (nine conceded in seven league games, four in two Champions League games) and Paulo Fonseca still doesn’t seem to know what his best team is.
However, this international break has provided a chance to re-evaluate and perhaps even reset the hierarchies, especially with Fikayo Tomori ending up in the dock after what happened against Fiorentina with the penalty incident and his error leading to the winning goal.
What can Fonseca do moving forward, starting from Saturday’s game against Udinese? There seems to be three options on the table at present.
Faith and chemistry
It was during the post-Scudetto season of 2022-23 that we first brought a particular problem to light, which was that due to a combination of injuries and rotations Milan were failing to name a settled back four from one game to the next.
One of the strengths of the team that won the title was the defensive record, conceding two goals in the final 11 league games with nine clean sheets, and a critical factor within that was the stability that allowed chemistry and cohesion to build.
The back four was very settled: it was Davide Calabria as the right-back, Pierre Kalulu as the right centre-back, Fikayo Tomori next to him as the left-sided central defender and then Theo Hernandez at left-back. The more they played together the more understanding bred and the more watertight they became.
Below are the starting defensive units that Fonseca has chosen this season so far:
➤ Torino: Calabria, Tomori, Thiaw, Saelemaekers (2 goals conceded).
➤ Parma: Calabria, Tomori, Pavlovic, Theo (2 goals conceded).
➤ Lazio: Emerson, Tomori, Pavlovic, Terracciano (2 goals conceded).
➤ Venezia: Emerson, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Theo (0 goals conceded).
➤ Liverpool: Calabria, Tomori, Pavlovic, Theo (3 goals conceded).
➤ Inter: Emerson, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo (1 goal conceded).
➤ Lecce: Emerson, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo (0 goals conceded).
➤ Leverkusen: Emerson, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo (1 goal conceded).
➤ Fiorentina: Emerson, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo (2 goals conceded).
Out of nine games this season, the Portuguese coach has named the same back four compared to the previous game on three occasions, which are the most recent three games. The result? Four goals conceded in those four games, including just two in 270 minutes against Inter, Lecce and Leverkusen.
Looking at the recent games it seems as though Fonseca has finally settled on the four players that he wants out there, and perhaps just as importantly he is now constantly relying on Tijjani Reijnders and Youssouf Fofana as the screen in front.
Ask any defender, the best way to build a solid understanding as a unit is to play together as much as possible, and that is something that must be playing into the minds of the manager and the players while searching for the solidity that abandoned the Rossoneri over two years ago.
Emerson and Tomori have been at Milanello over the break while Gabbia is riding the crest of a wave after an Italy call-up and a brilliant 2024 so far, so there is a strong argument for picking those three. Theo, unfortunately, will break the streak due to his suspension but can return in midweek against Club Brugge.
So, maybe this is the time for Fonseca to take a stand and put faith in those four players as his starters from here at least beyond the near future, to given them the opportunity to develop a bond together. Some rotations will be forced, others will be more natural, but the bedrock can remain.
The obvious tweak
On the flip side, one could also argue that Tomori has in fact been a contributor to the defensive issues encountered since the start of last season, given the amount of games he has played and the fact he has never really hit that title-winning level of consistency.
His totally ill-timed jump when attempting to intercept David De Gea’s long kick in the closing stages of the defeat against Fiorentina led to the winning goal for the home side, and it was one of several errors that he has made in the past few months.
Might it be time for change therefore, to try find a more reliable pairing? At the start of the season Pavlovic was the centre-back who impressed the most and yet he didn’t seem to have a great co-existence with the Englishman, given both are aggressive high-line defenders.
Gabbia-Pavlovic could be the right combination to build around, in theory. A pair that would also be composed of a right-footer (the Italian) and a left-footer (the Serbian), a fundamental characteristic for coaches who insist on building from the back like Fonseca.
A non-secondary factor is their respective defensive attributes. The characteristics of Gabbia and Pavlovic adhere to those seen with Gabbia-Tomori because the former is more composed and position-based while the latter is more physical and proactive in his style.
The difference between Pavlovic and Tomori could be the concentration levels and the timing of the interventions, something that could see the former Partizan Belgrade man gain a bit of an edge. Yet, there is no guarantee that this man-for-man change will fix anything.
Lately, Pavlovic hasn’t played much at all. Against Leverkusen he started on the bench for the third game in a row and he came on in added time against Inter in place of Tammy Abraham to add an extra defender, then remaining on the bench in Florence too.
What happened? In reality, nothing particularly striking. The 23-year-old lost his place after a bad performance against Liverpool – one in which the whole team were at fault – but he in particular was brutally caught in the spin cycle of Mo Salah and Cody Gakpo.
He also took a good portion of responsibility for both Lazio goals in that 2-2 draw, but scored in that game and denied Boulaye Dia. There is no panic at the moment of course, because Pavlovic is showing that he has the capabilities and above all the heart.
Despite this, we cannot deny how things stand currently: he needs fine-tuning from a tactical and decision-making standpoint and is not really in game rhythm barring for his national team (who play a three-man defence). With seven potentially season-defining games in 21 days to come it could be a baptism of fire at the wrong time.
A more radical overhaul
Might there be a solution where two of the aforementioned doubts actually play together in the hopes of finding something that can work moving forward? Allow us to pitch the ideal of another formation chance.
Fonseca isn’t a stranger two two things: 1) changing system to suit the players he has available and 2) using a three-man defence. This could be Milan’s time to do both of those things at once, just as Pioli once did.
As you may recall, the previous head coach decided to change to a three at the back system during the defensive crisis in January and February of last year. A combination of three from Tomori, Pierre Kalulu, Malick Thiaw and Simon Kjaer were used, and to great effect overall.
The goals going in Milan’s net dried up and while the attack also suffered a bit from moving a man backwards, it was still the formation that facilitated a run to the semi-finals of the Champions League, a run ended by Inter when Pioli had switched back to a 4-2-3-1 with Ismael Bennacer as the attacking midfielder.
What the squad currently has is three perfect centre-backs for the formation: Pavlovic is left-footed and therefore would act on that side, Tomori could be the right centre-back which is his preferred side and then Gabbia can be the middle anchor.
In theory, it actually brings out the best in all of them because the men on the outside can use their aggression and athleticism to act almost as full-backs and midfielders at times. For example, Pavlovic plays as a left CB for Serbia, and it was in this role he got the better of Lamine Yamal recently.
As mentioned, Tomori’s strengths are similar and both would act with a bit more courage and perhaps a bit more precision as a result of knowing they had two men next to them for added cover. Gabbia’s ability on the ball and in the air make him ideal down the middle, like Francesco Acerbi at Inter.
Moving further forward, it would allow Theo Hernandez to take up a pure wing-back role and to focus more on building attacks than getting back and defending, something he hasn’t exactly always shown great impetus doing this season.
The right wing-back spot would remain a bit of a question mark, with the two obvious options being Emerson Royal and Calabria, both of whom have tended to struggle when asked to tuck into a three but can deliver a ball at the other end.
Bolder choices include Alex Jimenez from the Milan Futuro who is also known for being similar to Theo in his attacking tendencies, or even Yunus Musah who played wing-back in Mauricio Pochettino’s first game in charge of the USA and was impressive, scoring a goal from Christian Pulisic’s feed.
The concern about a three-man defence is that it deducts from other areas, but the midfield double pivot of Reijnders and Fofana could stay as they are, perhaps acting with greater confidence knowing there is an extra central defender behind them.
Pulisic and Leao would still occupy the wings, and then up front Fonseca can go back to alternating Alvaro Morata and Tammy Abraham based on form, condition and opponent, which was always the plan until the Spaniard started being used as a playmaker which is not his natural role.
There are obvious points of contention, such as the fact that switching the formation again is a direct antithesis to the idea of building familiarity, while most of the players are not used to it, and in terms of depth at centre-back there would be only Malick Thiaw and the young Davide Bartesaghi.
On paper, though, you can make an argument for the 3-4-2-1, and all this article intends to do is provoke thought. Regardless of positions on a tactics board and personnel, the crucial thing is that Fonseca decides on a defensive approach and sticks with it, for the sake of everyone involved.
it depends on the formation if it is 4 at the back i would want calabria at rb pavlovic and gabbia cb and lb theo hernandez
Theo is banned for next 2 matches.
then jiminez as long time as royal dosent play and maybe tomori i would be fine with every other defensive opinion
I wouldn’t mind Jimenez either as he has gotten some minutes there before but wouldn’t mind Terraciano either getting some minutes. If he cant get any minutes with Theo banned he should at the very minimum get loaned out in January.
Pavlovic and Gabbia for the cb’s would be my choices.
You can’t ask 2 at the back playing defenders to switch to 3 at the back and not expect confusion or some period of acclimatization ..which we don’t have. Not all central defenders can play in a 3 back and do so very well.
Best article from Sempre Milan. I’ve always said it’s either 433 or 343. If not then Milan are wasting Theo, Musah and RLC.
It’s mind blowing how a coach like Fonseca and Pioli would rather stick to their failed 4231 formation expecting these players to adapt to it rather than playing a 433 or 343 that best suits the players they have. Smh
If Fonseca doesn’t make this change he will lose his job. We do not have the right players for 4231. Using RLC, Reinjders, Pulisic and Morata in attacking midfield is a failure.
This only worked against Inter and that’s because they weren’t use to Milan playing this way with 4 attacking players pressing but this 442 is not the best formation for the players we currently have.
I’m not a fan of 353 but I have been saying the exact same thing, it’s what suits the players we have!
So long as Emerson never plays I’m happy
Pretty sure the officials are not a fan of 353 either.
Lol
I guess we’ll have to deal with just 11 so
*343
pretty clear from these numbers its gabbia pavlovic
We need better coverage in the midfield so we can control matches. Another Fofana would do wonders, but maybe we can for once use RLC in the back. We don’t have the squad for three CBs, especially after Kalulu left.
gabbia pavlovic!!
Either Gabbia +Pavlovic if it is 4 at the back.
But I have thought for some time that 343 should be our best formation for the squad.
I’d like to see it happen v Udinese.
Any formation excluding tomori at the back is good for me. He’s not reliable and senseless in defence. Playing him on 3 man defence will be more disaster cause he will confuse to the whole build up. Pavlovic and gabbia is the best on 4 back line
Puno više – previše grešaka – u menađmentu i to več godinama !! Pišem ono što mi momentalno pada na pamet a što su neoprostive kardinalne pogreške Moncade i uprave ! Idemo redom prvo zbog milion eura ili nešto više nisu ostavljeni ni prepoznati kao kljućni Donaruma, Kessie, Calhanoglu,Paqueta . Čak pojedini pušteni BESPLATNO !! STO JE NEOPROSTIVO! Nadalje Tonali je prodan a kupljen Škart. Kalulu prodan u Juventus UŽas ! Salemakers po meni puno bolji od Cukwezea ! D.Maldini pušten neosporni talent koji je pozvan u REPREZINTACIJU !! Amo sad na kupljeno a ne igra ili se planira njihova prodaja na zimu !! dakle GREŠKA kod kupovine * Musah, Emerson Roya, Chao, Pavlović, Okafor, Cukweze, Terachiano , Jimenez, JOVIć, Abraham . Ne smijem ni spomenut onu dvojicu- toliko ne igraju – godinama da sam zaboravio i kako se zovu svakako crnci jedan ćak 4 miliona eura neto !! FONSEKA SPADA TU KAO ŠLAG NA TORTI ! Možda ponešto i grijEšim ali u većini sam u pravu !!! SVE OVO JE DOVOLJNO DA KOMPLETNA UPRAVA S DIREKTOROM DOBIJE OTKAZ ! Bez povratka Bobana i Maldinija i dalje će mo strepit nad svakom utakmicom Milana sa velikim grčem i nevjericom u pozitivan rezultat ! FORCA MILAN