Devil’s Advocate: Foundations, funds and fixes – why Fonseca and Milan’s summer offer hope

AC Milan are approaching a crucial few weeks when it comes to laying the foundations for the post-Stefano Pioli era, or rather re-building around the foundations that already exist thanks in large part to the previous head coach. 

The dust is settling and the tears are drying after Pioli, Olivier Giroud and Simon Kjaer brought their respective tenures at Milan to a close during Saturday night’s bizarre 3-3 draw against Salernitana at San Siro.

There were heartfelt speeches, acknowledgements from the crowd and even a farewell goal for Giroud to celebrate underneath the supporters, but then not long before midnight the curtain came down signifying that the chapter is closed.

Indeed we might have reached the end of this particular passage in Milan’s history, the nearly half-decade of Pioli’s stewardship, but the book continues after him. A total of 240 games, 132 wins, a Scudetto win and a Champions League semi-final run suggest what comes next will be tough to follow.

This is the task that those in charge face. They have already endured a storm of epic proportions after the Julen Lopetegui news broke which forced a prompt U-turn, there were protests from the Curva Sud about a perceived lack of clarity, and now there is a general undercurrent of discontent about the radio silence that transmits.

There are a lot of moving parts such is the importance of the few weeks that await Gerry Cardinale, Giorgio Furlani, Geoffrey Moncada, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and co., though there are also reasons to believe that there are some strong pillars and ideas to keep building around.

A core to cement

Although there are things that every fan would change about the squad of the team they support, there is a lot of upside to the group that has been assembled at Milan over the past few transfer windows.

Starting with the obvious stars at the club, Rafael Leao remains among the best wingers in the league if not the world, Theo Hernandez is an elite level player in his role and probably the best in the world, and Mike Maignan is regarded as the same.

Looking at the defence, Fikayo Tomori has played at very high levels before, Davide Calabria is a seasoned and experienced professional, Matteo Gabbia came back and performed exceptionally, Malick Thiaw has shown plenty of promise and Pierre Kalulu was a genuine bedrock of the side that won the Scudetto, but each have been plagued by injury problems at various points.

Then there are the new signings. Christian Pulisic racked up 20 goal contributions in his debut season, Luka Jovic and Noah Okafor were each decisive multiple times off the bench, Tijjani Reijnders and Ruben Loftus-Cheek became established starters in no time, while Samu Chukwueze and Yunus Musah showed flashes.

Therefore, it can be argued that there are already some key pieces of the squad already in place, and given that it has been repeatedly preached that big sales are not needed because of the club’s financial strength, that will make Milan an attractive proposition to the new head coach and prospective signings.

However, the flip side to that is that there is a lot of work to be done, starting by replacing the leadership that has left Milanello in the form of Giroud and Kjaer, two players who have seen and won plenty.

In addition, the majority of players listed above can actually be used as case studies that prove that there is a need for fresh ideas. The constant struggles in big games, the run of derby defeats, winning one game in nine to end the season all suggested – if not proved – that things went stale.

More specifically, Leao was frustratingly hot and cold again as he suffered a goal drought at the beginning of the year, Theo’s performance levels also fluctuated and Maignan suffered a much more stark drop in performance levels compared to 2022-23, plus more injury woes.

Defensively the team were a shambles, with 49 goals conceded being 27 more than Inter let in and 18 more than Juve. Tomori, Thiaw and Kalulu all had extended spells out due to injury which partly explains it, but when they came back they were as wobbly as before. Calabria, too, was exposed too many times.

Looking at the 2023 summer additions, aside from Pulisic there are still doubts about each. Okafor’s true position remains unknown, Jovic might not renew, Loftus-Cheek was virtually anonymous from February, Chukwueze never got fully going while there remain doubts about the roles of Reijnders and Musah moving forward.

So, there are points of encouragement and question marks, something that will have been factored into the decision making when picking the head coach that could come in and build around a group that are seemingly ready for change.

Step forward Fonseca

This is where Paulo Fonseca enters the frame, the coach that is expected to soon pen a two-year deal with Milan that includes the option of a third year. It is anticipated that his salary will be €2.5m net per season plus bonuses, which did raise some eyebrows.

The management believe that the Portuguese manager meets a series of requirements indicated by the board, requirements which instantly repelled them from candidates that fans called for such as Antonio Conte.

Fonseca has experience – both in Italy and abroad – his style is of an attacking vocation, he is used to working with young players and he is also accepting of the way that the management want to operate, which is in a collegial style with shared decision making.

All of that is well and good, but what will he bring from a tactical perspective? The indications show that Fonseca has been through a journey so far in his relatively young career that has changed the coach he is.

Even the two Lille sides he fielded in the past couple of seasons are far from twins. In 2022-23 Fonseca presented a hyper-attacking Lille team, which scored plenty but also conceded a lot. Last season, the goals conceded dropped from 44 to 34, but the goals scored fell from 65 to 52.

Fonseca’s Milan will focus much more on possession than Pioli’s. At San Siro in recent years we have seen a team geared around playing in transition: they defended man for man and, when the ball was recovered, they countered vertically with Leao, Theo and Pulisic.

How the top five in Serie A looks based on how those teams did against other sides in the top five.

[via @433] pic.twitter.com/WEFpLQfI5T

— MilanData📊 (@acmilandata) May 29, 2024

Lille meanwhile were second for passes completed in 2023-24, sixth for passes into the final third of the pitch, 13th for long balls and second-last in terms of crosses. The picture is clear: Lille loved to keep the ball, used short passes and sometimes had difficulty getting to goal.

It will be interesting to understand how Fonseca will use Rafa Leao, who needs space like he needs oxygen. The winger arguably symbolises his first great challenge in his new role, which is the ability to convince the team.

This is a Milan squad that want to believe that they can challenge Inter and overturn the 19 point deficit but they know they can only do so by improving their defensive solidity, finding their best players again and formulating that chemistry between departments which has been lacking.

In terms of system, Fonseca plays with a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 but – compared to Thiago Motta for example – he changes more in relation to the players available and the situation at hand, demonstrating a tactical flexibility.

With Lille he chose interesting solutions on the flanks. On the right, an attacking full-back like Tiago Santos used a lot of internal overlap to play in the half space, with winger Edon Zhegrova on the outside hugging the touchline.

On the left, the opposite. Ismaily attacked less and, when he pushed, he did so on the outside. Defensively, however, captain André was important as an anchoring midfielder – the mould of player who Milan need this summer – and he allowed the others to push on.

The idea is that, from July, Fonseca will try to bring together the solidity of Lille (second in shots on goal conceded) and the attacking sparks of Pioli’s Milan. He will have a few days at Milanello, then the usual long trip to the United States for the preseason tour where he can continue to assimilate his ideas.

The gaps to fill

While the former Roma boss gets to work implementing what will hopefully be a more visible tactical identity compared to the end credits of Pioli’s time with the Rossoneri, the management will then turn their attention to bringing him in more pieces for the jigsaw.

We start with the generally accepted notion that there are some very obvious gaps in the starting line-up and the squad that simply have to be addressed in order for Milan to make that jump in quality towards being a title contender.

The top of the list is a new centre-forward. Giroud’s departure only strengthened the desire to invest heavily in his heir, and this is where most of the summer budget will be allocated because the investment has been postponed for so long and goals are the ultimate currency in football.

Fonseca built an attack around Jonathan David at Lille, which has naturally seen the Milan links explode again, though he had a season of two halves as a goal drought up until Christmas was followed by 18 goals this calendar year.

David is an atypical centre-forward in the sense that he is far from a target man or a striker that spends most of their time inside the penalty area, but rather he likes to ask questions with his movement and bring the wingers and midfielders into play, dragging defenders with him.

That is why it is also no surprise to read about the concrete links to Joshua Zirkzee, who has shown a similar interpretation of the role in a breakout season with Bologna, and the kind of qualities that suggest he could be moulded by the right coach into something of a ‘9.5’ rather than a No.9.

Beyond that, it is believed that Milan will spend on another central defender, potentially one who is left-footed or naturally left-sided to come in and play alongside Fikayo Tomori who would then shift across to the right, the side of his stronger foot.

Additionally, another right-back is requested, and they will ideally compete with Davide Calabria for the starting role. Fonseca likes someone who pushed up from full-back and creates, with movements elsewhere on the pitch covering for this.

The fact Alessandro Florenzi (one goal, seven assists in 2140 minutes) dwarfed Calabria’s attacking output (one goal, four assists in 2970 minutes) this season certainly points towards the need for a better tactical fit, perhaps like Tiago Santos.

Finally, a defensive-minded midfielder is also desired, and one could make a strong argument that this is the biggest need. The back four were so often brutally exposed by a lack of protection in transition during the season that has just ended, and so a filter is required to help restore order.

The identikit seems to have been drawn up: a physical presence who shields the defensive line, who can operate next to a deeper-lying creative midfield player, a job that Reijnders seems to be a good fit for.

Several names are being considered for each role, reports suggest. Whether Zirkzee, Guirassy or Sesko wear the new No.9 shirt, whether Buongiorno, Lacroix or Santos bolster the defence and whether Fofana, Veiga or Amrabat join the midfield the theme remains: fans expect a statement mercato.

Milan are looking for all these players, and the good news is that the austerity-driven days of the mid-2010s are now over. Various sources have claimed the management will have a figure of around €90-100m in order to find those players, which has been broken down.

In case you missed it, over on our Substack we analysed the predictions for the 2023-24 accounts and what this means for the availability to spend during the upcoming mercato, which is available as a free read and confirmed the numbers.

There will be around €70m in total depreciations this year, while another chunk will come from the farewells of Olivier Giroud, Simon Kjaer, Mattia Caldara and Antonio Mirante in terms of the salaries that are saved.

The sales of Rade Krunic and Junior Messias plus the increasingly probable one of Charles De Ketelaere boost the budget even more, as does that fact that the club are currently heading for a profit of around €30m in the 2023-24 accounts.

In a nutshell, Milan have the leverage and strength to invest which is indicated by two factors: creation of further space in the budget through exits plus a notable cash flow given by the various revenue streams.

There will be no Antonio Conte-led revolution, no Roberto De Zerbi romance and no Jurgen Klopp shock. However, that isn’t what Milan want to sign up for in their position, at least in the eyes of the leadership and where the project is right now.

Instead, they want someone who has interesting ideas that do not require radical overhaul of the squad, someone who will be involved in transfer discussions without holding the club to ransom, someone who knows the league but can still take it by surprise and someone who can help continue to build.

A look around the European landscape suggests Milan are not alone. Conte is struggling to get the job he really wants, Jose Mourinho and Maurizio Sarri are out of work. Thomas Tuchel is still searching after the chaos at Bayern Munich, and the same for Xavi with Barcelona.

Project managers who fit the club’s ethos are the trend. Juventus have gone with Motta over the temptation to bring back Conte, Liverpool have turned to Arne Slot, Chelsea to Enzo Maresca and Bayern Munich to Vincent Kompany, among other examples.

It could well be that those in command have got this particular decision wrong, and the proof will be in the results that follow. History suggests one thing though: Milan rarely show their ambition through their coaching appointments, as the Arrigo Sacchi and Fabio Capello gambles signify.

If Paulo Fonseca wants to know what it is like to arrive under a storm of supporter discontent he can ask Pioli all about it when he’s cleared out his office. He turned protests into a song, a Scudetto and then essentially a sacking, before passing the baton along.