Evolution not revolution: The tweaks Allegri must make to get Milan over the line

All of AC Milan’s previous certainties went up in smoke inside 37 first-half minutes in their damaging defeat to Udinese.

The build-up to the game was dominated by the attacking struggles that Milan are enduring, which then gave rise to the news that Massimiliano Allegri was considering a switch to playing with three forwards, removing a centre-back in the process.

Indeed, when the starting line-up came out for the Udinese game, it was confirmed that Allegri had chosen to go with a 4-3-3. It featured an attacking trio that consisted of Alexis Saelemaekers and Christian Pulisic either side of Rafael Leao. Zachary Athekame came in at right wing-back.

After a bright start to the game, things began to unravel and Milan found themselves two goals down at the break, with Davide Bartesaghi diverting a cross into his own net and Jurgen Ekkelenkamp glancing in a header from a Nicolo Zaniolo cross.

Arthur Atta added some gloss in the second half, with the final score 3-0. It was a result that sent shockwaves around the Milan world, with a top four spot now in danger after the Scudetto dreams were waved away into the sunset.

What exactly did the game tell us, and more importantly how can these teachings be used to stabilise so that the Rossoneri get over the line in their quest for a Champions League return.

Lessons learned

Our tactical analysis of the 3-0 loss to Kosta Runjaic’s side provides more of a detailed breakdown on the set-ups of the two teams and how Udinese were able to utilise weapons such as the central overload to block Milan’s passing outlets.

However, the failure of the 4-3-3 can also be distilled down to a very simple concept, one that we are surprised a coach as experienced as Allegri did not realise. Or even worse, perhaps he did realise it, and proceeded anyway to try and prove a point in some way to the clamouring fans and pundits.

Ultimately, what happened with the switch in formation is that they removed a piece from an area of strength, which was the defensive department. Although cracks in the wall have shown in recent weeks, Milan still have a top 10 defensive record in Europe’s top five leagues, which is testament to the work done so far.

That alteration was made in an attempt to shift the ballast more towards the attacking department, which has been jammed for months now. The issue was that Allegri was not only shifting a chess piece, he was swapping it for a weaker one, and hoping everything would pan out.

None of Milan’s forwards are firing, in fact all of them look grossly out of form. So this was not a like-for-like change that could in theory have generated positive momentum. Instead, it effectively made the system a 4-3-2, or a 4-3-0 if you wanted to be hyper-critical.

Allegri knows his way around the block, and he will have been well aware that the Rossoneri’s rearguard action has kept them in many games. When faced with a squad not bursting with quality, this is often Max’s style: to play pragmatically, to reduce the margins, to embrace low-event games and bank on odd moments quality to win them.

What we saw with the system change was Milan become incredibly stretched. All of a sudden, the centre-backs and full-backs were being left 1v1 every time possession was surrendered. Habits you might expect to die with the switch to a pairing – like Strahinja Pavlovic bombing forward – remained, to the detriment of the team.

The departments became incredibly spaced out, to the extent that in the seconds building up to the 0-1 goal it looked similar to the 5-0-5 that was the subject of ridicule under Stefano Pioli, as well as Paulo Fonseca and Sergio Conceicao last season. All of those old flaws were exposed.

The point of a three/five-man defence is largely safety in numbers. The talk in preseason was about Allegri’s desire to use a 4-3-3 but that changed very quickly after just a few days of work at Milanello, perhaps because he was as aware of the limitations of this team as he was the strengths.

Simply put, this squad is not blessed with elite centre-backs who can cope with repeated exposure in transition. It is not blessed with experienced full-backs that know when to pick moments to get forward. Luka Modric at 40 cannot be expected to hold everything together every week, as the main creator and the main shield for the defence.

Then, at the other end, very little was fixed. Admittedly, those calling for a three-man attack most likely would not have been demanding it be Saelemaekers-Leao-Pulisic. It felt like a pre-requisite was to play with the American and the Portuguese in their natural positions on the wing, with a centre-forward (Füllkrug or Gimenez) down the middle.

So, perhaps that aspect of the experiment was divisive, but in truth it is irrelevant as no combination of forwards was going to yield the four goals to offset the fact that Milan had been completely blown open at the other end.

Back to the future

We may well see the 4-3-3 return at some point in the future, especially if the reports from the summer were to be believed, the ones which claimed that it is the system that Allegri wishes to be the ‘end goal’.

Before that happens, a lot of personnel changes will be needed. If Milan get into the Champions League and set themselves up for a 50+ game season, depth will be needed and potentially a new spine.

A starting quality centre-back, central midfielder (regardless of Luka Modric’s future), full-back and striker are required. Depending on what those acquisitions look like – and how the picture fits around it – playing with four at the back and three in attack may make a lot more sense then.

For now, Allegri must return to the certainties he established in the first six months of the season, ones that he hopes are still present after a rough recent run. The two main pillars centre around being hard to beat: firstly being tough to score against as a defensive unit, and secondly being difficult to win against.

While there was a section of the fanbase who scoffed at being 24 games unbeaten, believing that it was holding the team back in some way. The fact of the matter is that now the streak has ended, what has followed is four defeats in seven. That aura of being a team you get one point at best against has evaporated.

Thus, Allegri should revert to the 3-5-2 and use these final six games to prove that it was the formation that was getting something greater than the sum of the parts, results-wise at least. There are, however, some obvious changes to make.

In defence, the next step feels like the reintroduction of Matteo Gabbia, who has been one of the most consistent players in the entire squad pretty much ever since he returned from his loan spell at Villarreal.

In Milan’s seven defeats this season (five in the league, one in the Coppa Italia, and one in the Supercoppa Italiana), Gabbia has only appeared once: in the 2-1 defeat against Cremonese on matchday one. Just a coincidence?

What Gabbia offers is a stable anchor in the middle of the three, allowing Koni De Winter to play in a right-sided role that is a better fit on paper, given his past as a right-back too. While the Belgian has looked exceptional at times in the middle, yet the Italian is statistically better in the air, better in defensive metrics like clearances and blocks, and better at passing.

The next iteration of the three-man defence being De Winter, Gabbia and Pavlovic makes a lot of sense on paper. They should be a nice complement, even if Fikayo Tomori might have something to say, especially in those games in which the outside centre-backs are asking to get forward into crossing positions.

Moving to the midfield line, two of the spots are sewn up until the summer by Adrien Rabiot and Luka Modric. What is becoming abundantly clear though is that Allegri cannot do without Youssouf Fofana’s work rate and physicality on the right of the three.

There is a lot of speculation swirling about Fofana potentially being sold given his value and the apparent desire to sign another RCM like Leon Goretzka. Yet, in the present one could make the argument that he is a vital lynchpin, protecting each of the players around him.

What the Frenchman lacks at times in the attacking and defensive third (though his end product has gradually improved and is underrated by many) is almost ineffectual. The balance that the former Monaco man provides is something the others simply cannot replicate.

That brings us onto Ardon Jashari, who has become a bit of an object of mystery this season given how much he cost and how few opportunities he has had. Allegri seems very reluctant to use him as a mezzala, preferring Samuele Ricci there, so for now the Swiss is exclusively the deputy to Modric.

This does raise question marks about future squad planning. More specifically, if Milan are trying to hard to get Modric to stay for another year, what will that mean for Jashari? Of course the Croatian’s minutes would have to be managed at 40 years of age, yet the ex-Brugge man risks not being a starter for another season.

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Then there are Ricci and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who are also seen as having quite specific roles. The Englishman has arguably been most useful as a second striker, while the Italian tends to struggle to assert himself when he starts, but provides energy and hustle off the bench in the right moments.

Davide Bartesaghi has the left wing-back spot tied up, yet on the right there is more change afoot where Zachary Athekame should start. What he provides with his crossing accuracy, his size and his athleticism is an added weapon compared to Alexis Saelemaekers, who by contrast has declined notably in 2026, perhaps due to fatigue.

One of the criticisms of the 3-5-2 is that there is not enough chance creation and not enough penetration. With two powerful wing-backs that can both delivery excellent service, the forwards would surely have more to chew on.

That brings us on to the front two, and perhaps the most important tweak to the system Allegri must make. It is time to shelve the Pulisic-Leao attempts, at least for now. It has been doomed to fail not because the idea is lacking, rather because we didn’t even get to see the idea.

They simply haven’t been fit enough for long enough at the same time to get regular starts together, which in turn help to build the necessary cohesion and chemistry to operate in a front two. With both still clearly playing through physical issues, it’s time to make a change up top.

Santiago Gimenez has watched from the sidelines for months, and has recently had a couple of cameos. With his fitness surely nearing the threshold required to start, it’s time to see if the only natural striker in the squad who is mobile (sorry, Füllkrug) can unjam things.

Milan arguably played their best attacking football this season when Gimenez-Pulisic got a run of games. Both are very smart at moving, with the Mexican paradoxically doing the role of creating space rather than finishing, which the American was doing at a remarkable (perhaps unsustainable) rate.

Then, there are options to come off the bench. Leao and Nkunku to run at tired defences, perhaps Füllkrug to bust open the low blocks or even Loftus-Cheek to occupy defenders. Even a mid-game switch to three up front has worked, and remains a card up the sleeve.

Of course Allegri is someone who has won almost everything there is in Italian football as a coach and he sees these players every day. Each selection decision he makes will have very solid logic behind it, yet there does seem to be some tweaks that can add a new dimension to the 3-5-2.

The point is that Allegri cannot and should not throw away something he has been bedding in for months, even if the long-term vision is something different. After all, if you rip out the roots too soon, you risk being left without anything to cling onto and grow from.

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