Having reached the age of 24 and being in his fifth season in Serie A, the time has come for Rafael Leao to show that he is getting towards being the finished product everyone at AC Milan hopes he can be.
La Gazzetta dello Sport write in their analysis how Leao has flashes within games where he looks like being the match-winner everyone knows he can but, but the problem is that his smile has faded and the gloomy face has prevailed recently.
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Leao is not asked to have the numbers of a centre-forward, but three goals out of a total of 1,000 minutes on the pitch is a miserable haul. He obviously knows this very well and, equally obviously, he would like to have more impact.
This is above all how the furious reaction after Napoli’s substitution is explained, a resounding anger that could have also resulted in something not very edifying if the wise Alessandro Florenzi had not accompanied him step by step during his angry walk towards Pioli on the touchline.
Of course, the relationship between the winger and Pioli remains absolutely solid and profitable given Rafa has grown a lot at Milan, meaning his outburst in Naples is a parenthesis rather than opening the door to something more serious. The problem is that Leao is unable to make an impact as he would like and as much as he would like.
The coach asks him to get in the box more, to follow in at the far post and to show more malice when shooting, but these requests have only been partially implemented. Comparing the Leao of these first 13 matches – 10 in the league, 3 in the Champions League – of this season with that of the first thirteen of last season brings out some food for thought.
However, let’s start with what has improved. The average number of touches in the opponent’s area, for example, is a sign that Pioli’s messages have got through in some way: a significant increase this season from 6.7 to 7.2.
The percentage of shots on target also increased significantly: from 43% to 73%, a sign that Rafa is looking for the right shots more. The average number of duels won per match also increased, from 3.7 to 5.8.
However, with reference to the league only, the overall average of shots per game decreased (from 3.08 to 1.77), the percentage of successful passes (from 80% to 77%), the average of opportunities created (from 2.2 to 2) and that of successful dribbles (from 2.4 to 2.1).
One year ago Rafa had 4 goals and 6 assists against the 3 goals and 3 assists of the current season, so a turning point is needed in output.
“Leao is not asked to have the numbers of a centre-forward, but three goals out of a total of 1,000 minutes on the pitch is a miserable haul. He obviously knows this very well and, equally obviously, he would like to have more impact.”
And yet in the same period last season he had one more goal, so not sure what the problem is here. The most glaring stats for me are the assists decrease, the decreased number of shots and the heat map. The heat map in particular is interesting as it shows he playing deeper and also wider this season. In other words, he’s not sitting on the shoulder of the opposing RB as much, waiting for that through ball or over the top pass that will spring him in on goal, and also he does not seem to be cutting in as much, which could be linked to the decrease in shots and assists, since that movement leads to both shooting and passing chances. Further to that, his staying wide has also diminished Theo’s forward runs, which we have all also noted, as this is where Theo ought to be when Leao is cutting in (to provide both a distraction for the opposing RB as well as an outlet pass wide). Who is responsible? Pioli.
You still didn’t read the article
Bro I think u need to read the article. Vero is referring directly to things in the article and the graphic.
The conclusion is also poor and lacks context because like Vero said he’s only 1 goal off from last year’s tally which isn’t bad (and is on track) it’s just the assists part that’s less. But that can be explained by Pulisic coming in and releiving the dependence on Leao to do everything on offense.
You didn’t read his comment…
So you did right?
I think too much is being made of Leao. There’s always a segment of fans eager to criticize black players and recycle old tropes (he’s lazy, has a bad attitude) and it’s no different with Milan and Leao. The reality is Leoa is being assigned to a wider position with Theo inverting his runs to the outside. It’s a new wrinkle this season but unfortunately minimizes Theo’s main weapon, speed. Theo clearly isn’t very good or effective at dribbling into the teeth of the defense and that is costing Leao opportunities for assists. Fortunately Milan are a more dynamic team than a year ago and with Leao clearly using better shot selection (at least from statistical perspective) that efficiency should cause the numbers to even out over the course of the season.
If a player needs to be called out it’s Theo, he has regressed across the board. Pollitano glided right past Theo on the first Napoli goal and wasted clear chances all game long. How come nobody is focusing on his poor and even in some cases stupid play?
What does it have to do with skin color??
I very much agree on the Theo criticism tho
You made good points, although I would point that Theo’s regression is partially due the his new role as an inverted fullback which limits his runs on the left flank, and forces him to receive balls while facing his own side. This means that Leao is pretty much alone in the left side, and as we can see in the heat map, is receiving the ball while being deeper (even inside his own half), and wider than what he did in the previous season.
I noticed in our worst games, that Leao often receives a long ball, that he is alone in the left side with no one to outflank him or play a 1 2.