AC Milan’s decision to entrust Paulo Fonseca with the role of being the new head coach has raised some eyebrows, but there are some numbers which suggest it could be a good fit.
As La Gazzetta dello Sport (seen below) write this morning, there was a moment a summer ago when Milan were portrayed as a cross between a NASA mission control centre and a film starring Brad Pitt. Moneyball, of course.
The new management’s trust in numbers and algorithms for selecting players has had an exaggerated narrative but obviously has a basis in truth. Gerry Cardinale, more than anyone, considers data fundamental and sees Billy Beane, an American icon in the sector, as a master and an inspiration.
It is logical that, before choosing Fonseca for the bench, data was widely consulted. They are obviously not the only reason for the choice, but they were a factor, and there are several key numbers that might have been big indicators.
Salaries and age
Fonseca finished in fourth place in Lille with the eighth-highest gross wage bill in the league and this, for a club like Milan, is not trivial. It indicates the ability to go beyond the theoretical possibilities of the squad available.
Milan saw this and appreciated it, while the other critical value is that relating to the average age. The Opta ranking by age of the starters says that Fonseca’s team was the fifth-youngest in Ligue 1 over the 2023-24 campaign.
It is a fundamental parameter because the Milan coach, with the current ownership, will always have to combine results and the development of young players. Not by chance, the initial first choice – Julen Lopetegui – was the former Spain U21 coach.
Dribbling
What about on the pitch? Fonseca will certainly bring more dribbling to Milan – the data on ball possession will grow – and a different way of defending. The idea is to reduce the number of goals conceded compared to Pioli’s last season, even at the cost of giving up offensive danger.
Lille were second in the league for passes completed, sixth for passes into the final third of the pitch, 13th for long passes and second-last for crosses. This is typical data for a team that play the ball a lot and do so on the ground.
If Pioli’s Milan got oxygen from transitions – i.e. recovering the ball and going vertically towards the goal – Fonseca’s Lille were the second-best team in France for sequences with at least 10 passes closed by a shot or a touch in the area.
Three times per game Lille arrived at a shot on goal like this, with a network of passes. Players like Bennacer and Adli could get along well with him. A striker like Joshua Zirkzee, who is very good at playing with the team, can thrive in a system like this.
Aggression
Speaking of how a team generates a scoring opportunity, Milan will also have appreciated the data on offensive recoveries that led to a shot.
Lille are third-best in France and the feature, with players like Theo Hernandez and Rafael Leao, this kind of approach can definitely come in handy.
Pressing, recovering the ball and going to goal was the ABC of Pioli’s Milan and any heir would have to take it into consideration. Hiring a coach who is used to doing this can only help.
The defence
Last but not least, the defensive phase. Lille struggled a lot offensively – ninth for shots on target, fifth for goals scored – but behind them they improved a lot from one season to the next.
They were second for shots on target conceded, third for goals conceded, second for touches in the box conceded and first for passes conceded in the last 16 metres. Mike Maignan won’t mind that.
