AC Milan have zero points from their first two Champions League games, but they were tough matches on paper and there are still six left to play. So, where do the qualification hopes stand?
Milan’s 2024-25 European campaign has begun with a 3-1 home defeat against Liverpool where they were outplayed thoroughly and a 1-0 defeat away against the German champions Bayer Leverkusen where they were perhaps a bit unlucky.
Naturally, not getting a single point out of six is not an ideal way to start, but how does it affect the chances of progressing in the new ‘big league’ system?
A reminder of the format
We broke down exactly how the new Champions League works before the season began, but in terms of reaching the knockouts the easiest thing to explain is that the top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the round of 16.
Then, the team who finish from 9th to 24th place (therefore the 16 teams below) will compete in a two-legged knock-out phase play-off to secure their path to the last 16 of the competition. Teams that finish 25th or lower will be eliminated, with no access to the UEFA Europa League.
In the knockout phase, the teams which finished between 9th and 16th will be seeded in the play-off draw, meaning that finishing from 17th to 24th results in playing away from home in the second leg.
The eight clubs which prevail in the knockout phase play-offs will then progress to the round of 16, where they will each face one of the top-eight finishers, who will be seeded in that round. The pairings of the knockout phase will also be partly determined by where teams finish in the 36-team league.
Where Milan stand
Milan were not handed the easiest opponents with Real Madrid, Liverpool and Leverkusen drawn out, and what is striking is that the fixture list dictates they must play those three teams within the first four UCL games, meaning it is front-loaded in terms of difficulty.
After losing to the latter two, Milan have found themselves with their backs to the wall and with a very small margin for error because they are already in the ‘exclusion zone’, even if there are more manageable games on paper to come.
It could well be that six wins (minimum 18 points) are required to guarantee a top eight position, which for the Rossoneri would mean winning the remaining six games. Anywhere around 13 to 17 points probably should get 9th to 16th, then below that is more difficult to predict.
🇪🇺✔️ Here’s how the Champions League table looks after today’s matches… pic.twitter.com/hiRLtKYY8j
— CentreGoals. (@centregoals) October 1, 2024
The next opponent is Club Brugge which simply has to be a win and is a chance to move up the standings. The away match at the Santiago Bernabeu against Real Madrid follows, which it would be realistic to presume won’t be a win, but we hope to be pleasantly surprised.
In November the decisive period comes: Slovan Bratislava (away, on paper the weakest of the 36 teams), Red Star (at home, the team who conceded four to Inter), Girona (at home) and Dinamo Zagreb (away, who lost 9-2 against Bayern in round one).
Milan are likely to have the obligation to win all five of the ‘easier’ games and that would give them a points total that should put them between 9th to 16th place. However, games are not played on paper and the field will do the talking, with consistency required above all.
FONSECA. SMALL TEAM MANAGER 🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢🤢🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮🇵🇹
UCL is not a priority afterall. We look forward to scudetto this season.
Of the remaining 6 games, 4 are very easy. The one vs Girona is easy if you use your brain and muscles. Vs RM you already know the result.
I’m not worried yet. With this new CL format it’s “easier” to reach the knockout rounds. What many don’t realize is that finishing in the top 24 gets you to the first knockout round, which they’ve unfortunately called a “play-off” round, which implies you’re not really “in” the knockout rounds, but in fact you are. Simply put, there are basically two round of 16s, with the top 8 teams receiving a bye for the first round of 16 matches, and then the winners of that round advance to the second round of 16 (which is the one they’re calling “round of 16”) where they will meet the 8 teams that had a bye week.
We have 3 hard games, and 5 “easy” games. I think if we win 4/5 easy games and get at least one point between Madrid and the remaining “easy” game (13 pts total), we’ll finish in the top 24.
Milan have had the hardest start to the Champions league compared to any other team. They played Liverpool way too early before we even had chemistry and followed by leverkusen away to a team who was probably the best team last year going undefeated for 40 games. It’s these next games that we must get back into this and gain momentum.
It is good still. This Milan team is in creation. Every year we have new better players. Most important thing is Serie a top 4 fight. Everything else is bonus.
Impossible is nothing. Not saying Liverpool or Leverkusen are better than Madrid, but, they both attack better. We can still qualify. Girona, for me, is the team to watch out for, among the remaining. We have Fiorentina this weekend. They should be ready for Milan’s firepower this Sunday. They will bear the brunt of our loss. The international break should bring some rest to the players not called up.