AC Milan and Inter are getting ready to renew hostilities again, in a derby that could decide whether the title race is open or over.
As La Gazzetta dello Sport (seen below) write this morning, tonight’s Milan-Inter match will break the Serie A box office record, set by the first leg of the derby: €8,649,494. It will be close to €9m, with 75,500 at San Siro.
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The hope is for a derby that is also rich in poetry and beauty, worthy of the Olympic opening ceremony a month ago and the Fashion Week that just ended in Milan. There will certainly be no shortage of excitement, as the top and second-place teams in the league meet, albeit from afar.
Ten points is a long distance, but ten games, after the derby, is no small amount. In Allegri and Chivu’s minds, the big match at the Meazza has the same shape: that of a springboard. A springboard to secure a Champions League spot, but also to dream of a comeback or an escape.
Inertia and taboos
From the derby to the finish line, Milan and Inter will have similar paths and altitudes. The total points of their opponents is practically identical, and both will have three harder games on paper. For Allegri: Napoli, Juventus, Atalanta; for Chivu: Atalanta, Roma, Como.
Inter will face them in the next four rounds, so if they don’t falter, they can then plan a smooth glide towards the Scudetto, even if the final game being in Bologna doesn’t evoke happy memories. Milan’s three games aren’t as close together, but they have also dropped points against ‘lesser’ sides.
In any case, tonight’s derby will either boost or pave the way for the rest of the season. The Rossoneri are counting on their recent momentum: undefeated in the last six derbies, they’ve won four. The Nerazzurri haven’t celebrated a derby win since April 2024, and want revenge.
Milan haven’t won two derbies in the same season since 2010-11. Allegri was the head coach and the end result was a Scudetto win, pipping Inter.
Set pieces
Allegri has Bartesaghi back, but Estupinan is expected to start. Chivu is similarly cautious, having got Calhanoglu back, but is expected to hand the reigns to Zielinski, with Mkhitaryan coming on. The Turk is the last Nerazzurri player to score in a derby (2 April 2025), before the two most recent ones.
There’s also a question mark hanging over Thuram: should he not recover from a fever, Bonny will be ready to play alongside Pio Esposito. Will Milan be the usual wait-and-see side, inspired by Bodo/Glimt, a compact back and quick on the counter?
Juventus, even with 10 men, have shown how much Inter struggle when pressed. We’ll see how much pressing Chivu will demand and how many risks he’ll take, ultimately being able to settle for two out of three results.
One factor that disrupts the balance: set pieces. Inter have scored the most goals in Serie A from them: 21 (15 from corners); Milan, on the other hand, have conceded the most, with 10 goals out of 20.
Leao’s hour
The most anticipated protagonists? Well, Leao – after issuing the ‘do-or-die’ proclamation and imposing a week of staying at home – will have even more eyes on him.
Pulisic isn’t in top form, but he’s scored three times in the last six derbies, and if he repeats his feat tonight, he’ll become the first AC Milan player to have scored in two derbies in the same league since Kaká in 2003-04.
Milan have scored 21 fewer goals than Inter: a staggering figure. The midfielders must support an anaemic attack. Rabiot, with his strong legs and eye for goal, has everything it takes to hurt Inter, who struggle in transition.
McTominay has proven this more than once. And, of course, as always, everything will depend on the helmsman, Modric, timing and distance.
I pray Modric survives this without an injury.
A eye 👁️ on Salaemaker.
Koni, another time to prove you’re worth it.
Estupinan, now you have Pavlovic behind you…add more to our attack, please, and beware of either runs from behind. Hold you line, your foul should be far away from the box 🤌.