AC Milan knew when hiring Massimiliano Allegri that he gave them as good a chance as anyone of fixing the defence, and the signs are positive.
As La Gazzetta dello Sport (seen below) write this morning, in the win over Lecce before the break Milan were exactly the kind of team that Allegri wants to see. They were solid, compact and almost never in danger.
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A couple of numbers confirm this. Despite some lapses in concentration against Cremonese, Milan have conceded only 11 shots after two games, including shots on target, shots off target and blocked shots.
This is clearly the lowest figure among the 20 teams in the league. Napoli are at 17, Inter at 21. This weekend’s opponents, Bologna, are at 27. There’s another indicator to consider: Milan are the Serie A team that has conceded the fewest expected goals, or rather, the fewest chances: just 0.5 per game.
A significant statistic? Well, the small sample size and the quality of their opponents (Cremonese and Lecce) detract from the data, but you can only play what the fixture list says.
One key phrase
Allegri repeated the same concept over the summer to the point of boredom: “Perceive the danger.” It’s as if there were triangular road signs at the end of every corridor at Milanello, the ones that warn of hazards ahead.
The coach wants this to become an automatic thought for the Milan players: to ask themselves how their opponents can be dangerous and act accordingly. Max is much less interested in attacking now: he is focused on protecting Maignan.
So he added a defender, switching to three pure central defenders – a five-man defence – and asked his players not to get distracted, to help each other and to be alert in the penalty area.
Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Strahinja Pavlovic are the starters for now. with them, things went badly against Cremonese and well against Lecce. There will be time for changes but Koni De Winter will soon have an opportunity, and Davide Odogu will aim to impress.
Key players
Yes, but how do Milan defend? The team drops back, tries to protect the penalty area, and asks for help from everyone except Leao, who has let’s say a partial exemption from the defensive phase.
Against Cremonese, the team increased the pressure, but less so against Lecce. Milan often defended tightly, with Saelemaekers playing a key role in two roles: off the ball, he defends down the flank, and with the ball, he’s the third forward.
Furthermore, Luka Modric may have some problems in front of the defence, but Youssouf Fofana definitely helps him. Adrien Rabiot, who is known more for his attacking contribution but also makes his presence felt in his own half, will be a factor.
Tests to come
What does all of this mean? It shows that the mentality has changed since certain nights with Paulo Fonseca and Sergio Conceiçao, but Milan must be tested in terms of consistency and against superior opponents.
Before the October break, Milan will have Bologna at home, Udinese away, Napoli at home and Juventus away. Overall, four top teams. Maignan will get a close look at Castro, Orsolini, McTominay, Hojlund, De Bruyne, David, Vlahovic, Yildiz and more.
Mike will be traveling to Iceland during the October international break, and at that point, he’ll know if his Milan team is still giving away a lot or if he is now protected.
The Cremonese one was equal parts predictable and unprecedented.
All the stats suggest we win that game 75 times in 100 and draw 24 of the others.
But sport has a strange set of unquantifiable extra qualities that still exist; the uncertainty around the team and formation, the lack of normal atmosphere in the ground, the echoes of last season’s counter-attacking collapses…
Last season, the xPts table had us about joint 4th with Juventus and even higher in the early part of the season. Arguably it was highlighting the lack of clinical finishing, but at one point, if it goes on for long enough, you have to look at weaknesses in the modelling rather than misfortune. As the saying goes, ‘make your own luck’.
Nice one brother
Perfect illustration that you don’t run a football team with algorithms and data. You can’t quantify leadership or motivation among other parameters. We know that very well after watching a scudetto team exceed expectations with Maldini and Zlatan leading the group. Somehow redbird still refuse to understand that.
You do need a healthy balance of that.
One of the misunderstood parts of the original Moneyball is it’s story. People seem to think it is just a way for execs to sign a player from a spreadsheet. But it’s not, it’s a targeting algorithm to say who scouts should be interested in.
Scouting is just as important in baseball as it used to be, but now they have to look at the actual factors around potential progression, ability to deal with change, how their profile will develop, physical stage that they’re in etc.
Unlike when the idea started, everyone has a similar database when it comes to finding players worth taking a look at. But the different valuations placed upon them are given by scouting. And those scouts love the data!
So the algorithms and data are essential to the modern game. But it’s a starting point; you have to look beyond it to pick the final details. Our management know that, without a doubt. But will they get the decisions right? Can they make the necessary adjustments to pull it together?
Cremonese and Lecce. Settle Down. And it’s been at the expense of our offense which has looked terrible.