When Massimiliano Allegri joined AC Milan, there was intrigue about where Rafael Leao would play, and it is clear that he is now seen as a striker.
This season, Leao has been moved into a central area, as opposed to a winger, and the results so far have been impressive.
Numbers for proof
Sky discussed his numbers on the show, and they are less similar to those of a winger, but rather a striker. His dribble and sprint stats are all down, and noticeably down. For example, the fact that he now attempts 2.87 dribbles fewer per game.
However, his shooting numbers are far greater. Whilst his shot and shot on target numbers are effectively the same (2.56 vs 2.57 and 1.12 vs. 1.15), his xG has risen to 0.6 per game, and his xG per shot has risen to 0.15, as well as the fact that he now offers a contribution every 92 minutes, almost halving last season’s numbers.
If the difference couldn’t be seen on the pitch, it certainly can be in the numbers.
… and that’s him in a new position without a 9.
I feel like they’re ignoring that up until this season, Leão has never taken penalties (and has scored 2 already).
While someone should score them and we missed about 50% of them last season (+the Juve game), but they sort of inflate whatever xG, minutes per goal,… a player is having.
Yes, he is about the same as he was the past 4 years. Difference being the manager telling him to shoot, get into the box, finish. Instead of create and assist. Since most of his shots before came outside the box it kind of makes sense to have a higher xG…
He was being told to shoot, get in the penalty area by Pioli and the other coaches as well. There is no difference.
“Pioli gives advice to Leao and says Milan are fine now after difficult 2023 start
Isak Möller
3 years ago
On Leao’s header…
“I think Rafa needs to attack the far post more, even from open play. There are few right-backs who can handle him in terms of length. He has incredible physical potential. He must be more inside the area and attack the far post more.”
The penalties are inflating his numbers otherwise hell be on his less than 10 goal pace. One third thru the season he has only 3 open play goals.
Not to mention that xG is not actual goals. However, Leao IS on pace to meet or exceed his benchmark Serie A goals scored in a season, which is 2022/23, at 15 goals scored. He’s got 5 goals in 9 games. This is good enough for at least 20 in 38, and that would make him our first 20+ goals scorer (Serie A only) since Ibrahimovic 2011/12.
However, he’s also on pace to have the least amount of assists since 21/22. He’s gotten at least 10 in each season since. He’s at 1 in 9 games now, so on pace for 4-5 in 38. I guess that’s not too surprising given then he’s now the tip of the spear vs being more of a supporting player.
The most interesting thing is that this actually questions the need for a new striker. If we bring in Mateta, for example, does he play with Leao, start in his place, or play as a backup? If the new striker and Leao start together, what does this mean for Pulisic, arguably our best overall player over the last couple of seasons? The 3-5-2 has been very effective defensively, but creates a lot of questions in attack.
I’d say Leao is much better as a creator than a striker. His strenghts are dribbling and speed, not finishing. If he played Haaland and not Giroud he’d have 25-30 assist per season.
I agree completely, but this 3-5-2 means that we’ll send an equally good creator (Pulisic) to the bench.
Pulisic in Serie A since joining Milan:
2022/23: 36 games, 12 goals, 9 assists
2024/25: 34 games, 11 goals, 11 assists
2025/26: 8 games, 5 goals, 2 assists
Leao in Serie A since Pulisic joined Milan:
2022/23: 34 games, 9 goals, 10 assists
2024/25: 34 games, 8 goals, 10 assists
2025/26: 9 games, 5 goals, 1 assists
It’s almost a dead heat, in fact Puli might have a slight edge. Imagine both of them flanking a proper no. 9? I guess what I’m saying is that this 3-5-2 is blessing and a curse. One of them will have to sit if they bring in this no. 9 that supposedly will produce more than (or equally to) either of them.
Been saying this a while now. We have two really good wingers. Imagine a proper 9 that can contribute. We’d be devastating. Our bulk of goals contributions come from Leao and Puli, almost in identical quantities
*2022/23 = 2023/24 for both players.
Good point.