AC Milan have now played four games in the UEFA Champions League and it is fair to say that things are looking much better than prior to the Real Madrid fixture.
Looking at the opening fixtures, Milan objectively had one of the toughest starts to the campaign, and their results matched this. An opening day loss to Liverpool was disappointing, and whilst the performance improved slightly against Bayer Leverkusen, the disappointment increased.
Two games, zero points and a difficult position to get out of. Nevertheless, with wins against Club Brugge and that phenomenal win against Real on Tuesday, the Rossoneri find themselves in a significantly better place.
Reminder of the format
Traditionally, the Diavolo would now play the same four teams in reverse order, starting with a home leg against Real Madrid. However, the competition no longer works in a group format, but rather a league one – which we fully broke down before the campaign began.
UEFA decided to move ahead with this plan to make the opening stage more competitive and more entertaining, and after Tuesday, perhaps the Rossoneri are in favour of the new way of things working.
Milan will now play four more games against Slovan Bratislava, Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade), and Girona, before travelling to Dinamo Zagreb on Matchday 8. At present, only the Croatian outfit sit above the Diavolo, but by the time they meet, Milan will hope to be in a much better position.
Let’s look at where they are now, though.
Where Milan sit
Currently, the Rossoneri sit quite gridlocked in 20th position with three teams on either side of them also on six points. The 3-1 victory on Tuesday has now put Paulo Fonseca’s side onto a positive goal difference as well, which could be pivotal.
Only three points separate the Diavolo and a place within the top eight, a favourable task considering their opponents (more on that slightly later). However, should they not reach those automatic advancement spots they will hope to finish between 9th and 16th to ensure a home-leg in the play-off places.
The standings at the halfway point of the league phase 👀#UCL pic.twitter.com/4jRHTj92uZ
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) November 6, 2024
Milan’s next game sees them travel to Slovakian outfit Slovan Bratislava – who currently sit bottom of the league with a -13 goal difference. With only two goals (scored against Celtic and Dinamo Zagreb), the Rossoneri should be able to maintain a focus on the Juventus game prior to that meeting.
Following this, the Rossoneri welcome Red Star Belgrade to San Siro in the middle of December, and with the Serbian outfit having a similarly depressing record so far, another victory will be expected. Again, the European fixture follows a difficult Serie A fixture (Atalanta at the Gewiss Stadium), so rotation could be afforded.
The penultimate game of the campaign sees Girona travel to San Siro, and once again the Rossoneri will face Juventus before, so Fonseca’s rotation will be scrutinised before the fixture. At present, the Spanish outfit sit in 29th, after only recording one win against Bratislava.
Finally, Fonseca’s side will travel to Croatia to face Dinamo, a week after the fixture against Girona. Once again, the squad will have to be considered, with the Derby della Madonnina taking place on the following weekend.
All in all, Milan are in a fairly good position to challenge for the top eight, and that will be the expectation from the club, especially considering some of the other teams in the mixer.
Atalanta will rotate against us.
The mid-week we play Red Star, they play Real Madrid, and 4 days before playing us, they play Roma.
I can see them prioritizing the Roma and UCL match over ours.
Could be a blessing in disguise.
I said before the start we needed at least 4 pts in the first 4 games to make the top 8. We need to win the remaining 5. Toughest opponent will be the last two games, Girona at home and away at Dinamo! However, very winnable in any case.
The last 4 games are going to be the toughest. Iykyk
The next two games are very winnable; actually they should be must-wins. It is concerning that Milan has a knack for playing down to the competition so, we’ll see. But if logic prevails, we should collect 12 points for the first 6 games.
That should be quite enough to make the playoffs which are for teams placed 9th through 24th, even if we lose the subsequent two games to the two stronger opponents Girona and Dinamo. But yes, if we win all four of our remaining games achieving 18 points, that should be good enough for the top 8. A mathematical simulation ran with 10,000 combinations by a web site I read about, established that teams with 15 points have a very good chance at top 8; let alone 18 points.
Too bad we lost to Leverkusen. We actually deserved to draw that game; we deserved to score a tying goal for a fairer 1-1 score. It would have been just 1 additional point, but we would have improved to 11th place rather than our current 20th. With that extra point and that extra goal (7 points and +2 of GD instead of 6 and +1), and 8 goals scored, this would have us above Juventus for 11th place, with the same points and GD but we’d have one “goal for” above them.
It’s amazing how much difference one goal in that Leverkusen game would have made! From 20th to 11th! And we’d have been only 2 points from top 8. Anyway, as unfair as that result was, it’s bygones and now we need to take care of our next 4 opponents, or at least 2 of them.
After beating madrid, there’s no reason why we can’t win the remaining four which would practically guarantee us a spot in the top 8.
To correct this article: To claim home field advantage in the first knockout round (teams 9-24) we need to finish 9-16, not 9-17.
We have a hack for playing down to the competition and losing/drawing games that should be easy wins (in fact many of our losses and draws this season came against beatable teams) and in many of our wins we were also a bit lucky against low level teams (Udinese, Brugge and Monza).
HOWEVER, I don’t see any convincing reason not to win all 4. I might be putting the ceiling a bit high, or making too much of a singular win against Real Madrid but when I see the names of the remaining teams and especially their performances in the UCL (with the exception of Dinamo Zagreb) I think it’s not unreasonable to aim for 12 points.
Also I think our last 2 games came during the winter transfer window, so we should be able to register new players right ?
Now after 4 matches have been played qualification points can easily be calculated
Minimum 10 points required for the playoff round and 17 points wont guarantee you a place in the top eight.even at 18 points one or two teams will remain in the playoff on goal difference
Liverpool, Barcelona, Sporting, Inter will definitely will reach top 8
But Manchester city, Bayern, Milan, Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, Arsenal, Leverkusan and Real madrid all can reach 18 points
The only team that was a bit of a concern is Girona but they dipped in form. Dynamo look solid against small team but not big team. Let’s not forget 2 yrs ago we claim all 6 against them.
As long as Milan beat the teams they should beat in the last four games, they will be fine. Only 3 or 4 of the other 35 teams have played a more difficult first four games, based upon the current standings. Six points is what I expected at this point. Only a lack of objectivity would cause someone to have expected more.