Precedents, subs, headers and individuals: Milan face a stern test vs. Fiorentina

By Oliver Fisher -

AC Milan must find a way to get the job done at a stadium where they have had a very mixed record in recent years when they take on Fiorentina tonight.

Milan have faced against Fiorentina 180 times in their history, making the hosts the 7th most-played-against team. The first fixture between the two sides occurred in Serie A in 1931, when the sides drew 1-1.

Milan will be looking to earn their sixth consecutive victory in all competitions, which shows how good their form has been over the past few weeks, but a difficult game awaits. If you think you know which way the game will go and fancy a flutter, check out

The precedents

This is a fixture that rarely ends level. In fact, only one of the last 12 matches between Fiorentina (4 wins) and Milan (7 wins) in Serie A have ended in a draw but that was a 1-1 tie on 22 February 2020 at the Stadio Artemio Franchi.

Fiorentina have won their last two league matches at the Stadio Artemio Franchi against Milan and could achieve three home wins in a row against the Rossoneri in Serie A for the first time since doing so between 1972 and 1974.

On the other hand, Milan have been much better away from home this calendar year. No team has gained more points (15) or scored more goals (15) than Stefano Pioli’s side away from home in Serie A in 2024 (6 games).

Fiorentina have drawn three of their last four league games (W1), including both of their most recent two. La Viola could draw three consecutive matches in Serie A for the first time since doing so between February and June 2020.

Subs and headers

The strength for Milan has been impact from subs. In fact, the Rossoneri have scored more goals via substitutes than any other team in the ‘top five’ European leagues this season with their 14 such goals a club record in a single Serie A campaign in the three points for a win era.

Overall only Napoli (16 in 2022-23), Fiorentina (17 in 2022-23) and Atalanta (20 in 2019-20 and 21 in 2020-21) have scored more goals from substitutes in a single campaign since 1994-95.

Meanwhile, Milan must watch out for Fiorentina’s aerial threat because they have scored the most headed goals (12) in Serie A this season. That said, Milan have conceded fewer headed goals (1) than any other team in the ‘top five’ European leagues in 2023-24.

La Viola also have a spread threat: last 10 goals in Serie A have been scored by 10 different players: Belotti, Ikoné, Martínez Quarta, Nico González, Barák, Beltrán, Kayode, Bonaventura, Ranieri and Mandragora.

The individuals

Nicolás González has already equalled his best goal return in a league campaign in Europe, netting seven goals this season as he also did in the 2021-22 season with Fiorentina. The Argentinian has however scored just once in his last 10 Serie A appearances after netting six goals across the first 11 games of the campaign.

Speaking of right wingers, Christian Pulisic has already equalled his best season in terms of league goals (9 goals – also in 2019-20 with Chelsea) and could score 10+ goals in a single season for the first time in the ‘top five’ European leagues.

After scoring against both of Empoli and Hellas Verona, Pulisic could score in three league matches in a row for the second time in his career after doing so in the Premier League between October and November 2019 for Chelsea.

There will be a big absence for Milan to deal with in Theo Hernandez, who is suspended. The Rossoneri have won 64% of their matches with him in the last two Serie A seasons (37 out of 58), averaging 2.1 points and 1.9 goals per game.

Without the French full-back however, the Rossoneri’s win-rate drops to 22% (2/9), averaging just 1.0 points and 0.8 goals per game.


Tags AC Milan Fiorentina Milan
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