AC Milan do not have a great chance of winning this season’s Europa League, at least if the ‘Opta Supercomputer’ is to be believed.
Milan begin their 2026-27 European campaign tonight with a game against Benfica, one that certainly has more of a Champions League feel to it given the six previous meetings between the sides have all come in that competition.
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Nevertheless, the Europa will have to do this time and it is one trophy that is missing from the Rossoneri’s cabinet. Fans and pundits generally expect Ruben Amorim’s men to go far – as they do Benfica – but Opta do not.
Ahead of the start of the league phase of the 2026-27 Europa League, the ‘Opta Supercomputer’ has run 10,000 simulations of the season to determine who is most likely to come out on top as per their data.
The findings
➤ Bournemouth are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to win the Europa League, lifting the trophy in 14.3% of simulations.
➤ Benfica aren’t far behind as second favourites, winning the trophy 14.0% of the time.
➤ Bayer Leverkusen are third favourites, given a 10.2% chance of glory.
➤ Premier League sides Sunderland and Crystal Palace are both among the top seven teams.
What about Milan? Well, they are Milan are 8th-favourites to win the Europa League with a 5.4% chance, the simulations suggest. The Diavolo have a 20% probability of reaching the semi-finals, and 10.2% chance of making the final.
There is even an over 30% chance that Milan do not even make it into the last-16 phase as per Opta, so they are certainly not as bold about the chances as some.
#ACMilan are 8th-favourites to win the Europa League with a 5.4% chance.
They have a 20% probability of reaching the semi-finals, and 10.2% chance of making the final.
[via @OptaAnalyst] pic.twitter.com/HznPb2yQcS
— MilanData📊 (@acmilandata) September 15, 2026
The computer must have seen Amoron’s lineup today…
lol English biased mixed in.
Surely we should be above Sunderland haha
10k simulations is too small a sample set for something of this complexity. #mathnerd
The fact that Juve has nine starters injured and still ranked above us shows that the simulation model has flaws.
Fun article. But meh.
Some of that fun is this: We win today does that put us in second? Do they rerun the simulation? 🙂
“The fact that Juve has nine starters injured and still ranked above us shows that the simulation model has flaws. ”
Touché. 🤦♂️
Lol the “supercomputer” say England,France or Argentina will win the World Cup back days?
Bournemouth the top favorite?! 😳 I mean, seriously?! Berlusconi would turn in his grave if he could see this.
And we just lost to Benfica. I guess Opta might know something after all.
Am just tired of dis team called milan
Go and sleep, nobody force you
sigh