The data, stripped of all the negative narrative that this AC Milan continues to carry around, is sparkling: three wins in the last three Champions League outings, with three goals scored each time.
The statistic says that scoring at least three goals in three consecutive games, also considering the European Cup, hasn’t happened for Milan since 1989. If you think it could happen in the next game too, check out 1Win Casino Canada.
It is not a bad record and we can certainly start from here to observe the Rossoneri’s standing in the UCL and analyse it looking forward. The sweetest scenario says that by also winning the next three games – Red Star at home (December 11), Girona at home (January 21), Dinamo Zagreb away (January 29) – they could finish in the top eight.
Doing that would mean skipping the dangerous appendix of the play-offs (from ninth to 24th place in the table), where the opponent is drawn and therefore presents a real margin of risk. It would be a great feat for Milan, considering where they found themselves after three rounds with just three points.
The draw gave Milan an immediately difficult path, it’s true (Liverpool, Bayer Leverkusen and Real in the first four games), but now the home straight has begun. And you can certainly turn your nose up at the way in which the Diavolo won in Bratislava, but in terms of qualifying for the round of 16 it is an indispensable fact that what mattered was getting another win.
By getting the same number in the next three games, one of the top eight places is guaranteed. Eighteen points means accessing the knockout phase directly at least based on the Opta calculations, which performed 50,000 simulations.
Even with sixteen points (so two wins and a draw) there would be an almost guaranteed chance (98%) of entering the top 8. Dropping to 15 points (two wins and a defeat) we enter the world of ifs and buts. The percentage drops to 73%, and goal difference could be key.
Milan’s current nine points obtained actually already gives them a 69% chance of reaching the play-off stage. At 12 points they would be certain of being in them, but that’s not the target.
Instead, the aim is to get maximum points from the final trio of games, and then in turn the club would collect over €30m in revenues, which could help fund some January business and continue a virtuous cycle.
