AC Milan’s season has been paradoxical so far, with the points per game average being much higher against the teams closer to the top.
Looking down the Serie A table, Inter have picked up 25% of the points available against other teams in the top five. Against teams from sixth to 10th, they are at 75%, while they have picked up every single point on offer against sides in the bottom half of the table.
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Milan meanwhile have amassed 83% of points available against the top five, and the same amount against 6-10th. Against teams from 11-15th it drops to 42%, then goes back to 83% for the bottom five.
Roma are perhaps the most interesting case, as they are yet to pick up a single point against another team inside the top five spots. They have won every game against the rest of the top half, and the bottom five, but are on 60% for the teams 11-15th.
Milan’s two-faced nature
The numbers reflect the trend of the season so far: Milan are great in the ‘six-pointer’ games against the sides around them, but they have dropped silly points against sides that on paper they should beat.
The Cremonese game in round one was three dropped, then draws against Pisa, Parma and Sassuolo led to the media even speaking about a hoodoo against the smaller teams, one the Verona win will hopefully help them shake off.
If we can get 11-15 in line with the others, i.e. ~83% and hold where we are with the others, we will win the title.
Inter is the scariest here, because they have a ton of room for improvement against 1-5, and they’re already in 1st.
Whilst Chivu is still an unknown as a coach at this level. I think Inter’s squad is significantly improved from last season. IMO they only lost the title because there was such a drop off in form/ability in their forwards. Once Lautaro and Thuram were not on the pitch.
They have solved that issue now with a much better group of rotation forwards with Bonny and Esposito.
Akanji and Sucic are also good additions.
Inter have a dreadful goalkeeper, but you’re right, it’s a very good squad and Chivu doesn’t have to do anything radical at this stage.