Newcastle and AC Milan will face one other on Wednesday in a Champions League Group F match. Will the Magpies be able to secure a spot in Europe, or will Milan snatch third place from them? Continue reading for our comprehensive UCL preview of this final group-stage match.
Form guide
As these two teams are tied for five points in Group F of the Champions League, Wednesday evening at St. James’ Park has much at stake.
The outcome of this matchup will likely determine third place, although second place is still possible if Borussia Dortmund defeats PSG; therefore, Newcastle and Milan are still eligible for knockout stage football in the Champions League or Europa League.
In a phenomenal run, Newcastle has triumphed in eight of their last nine home contests, defeating heavyweights Arsenal, PSG, Manchester City, Man Utd, and Chelsea during this stretch.
Milan may find it difficult to contend with the cauldron-like ambience that the Toon Army can generate, just as PSG did when falling 4-1 earlier in the group stage.
Newcastle: Previous six matches
|
10.12.2023 |
Tottenham |
4-1 |
Newcastle |
EPL |
|
07.12.2023 |
Everton |
3-0 |
Newcastle |
EPL |
|
02.12.2023 |
Newcastle |
1-0 |
Man Utd |
EPL |
|
28.11.2023 |
PSG |
1-1 |
Newcastle |
UCL |
|
25.11.2023 |
Newcastle |
4-1 |
Chelsea |
EPL |
|
11.11.2023 |
Bournemouth |
2-0 |
Newcastle |
EPL |
Given that the Magpies have a higher goal difference and the head-to-head record is irrelevant due to the 0-0 draw in the rematch, the Rossoneri must win this match. However, doing so at the stronghold that is St James’ Park may prove difficult.
Milan, who previously advanced to the semifinals of this competition and have won it seven times, are on the verge of elimination once more. Their Champions League form in 2023 has been abysmal, with a single victory in their last eight contests; they will likely remain at the bottom of Group F.
They have been held scoreless in 4 of their last 5 UCL away matches, and despite having 25 attempts in the reverse meeting, they could not find the net; therefore, Newcastle’s tenacious defence may prevail on Wednesday.
Milan have lost their last three domestic away games and squandered a point in the 95th minute at Atalanta on Saturday, indicating that the hectic atmosphere of St. James’ Park and the urgency to secure a victory will likely impact their performance.
Milan: Previous six matches
|
7.10.2023 |
Atalanta |
3-2 |
AC Milan |
It1 |
|
30.9.2023 |
AC Milan |
3-1 |
Frosinone |
It1 |
|
24.9.2023 |
AC Milan |
1-3 |
B Dortmund |
UCL |
|
16.9.2023 |
AC Milan |
1-0 |
Fiorentina |
It1 |
|
2.9.2023 |
Leece |
2-2 |
AC Milan |
It1 |
|
29.8.2023 |
AC Milan |
2-1 |
PSG |
UCL |
Injury updates
Most injury concerns surround the host team heading into this match, but Eddie Howe has dealt with this predicament for quite some time.
Due to a shoulder injury, Nick Pope will be absent from this match; therefore, Martin Dubravka is the anticipated replacement between the posts. Additionally, Dan Burn, Sven Botman, and Matt Targett will miss this match as part of his defensive triumvirate; Botman, in particular, is nearing his recovery from an injury.
Additionally, there are midfield considerations to be made, given that three of the most formidable midfielders are not available for selection. Sandro Tonali has been disqualified from this match due to wagering violations that transpired during his tenure with the travelling team. Moreover, Joe Willock and Elliot Anderson will be absent from this match due to injuries.
In conclusion, Eddie Howe must contend with a double injury on both flanks. Jacob Murphy and Harvey Barnes are still recuperating from their protracted setbacks.
Head-to-Head
Trends
➤ Newcastle has seen under 2.5 goals in three consecutive Champions League games
➤ Milan has failed to score in three consecutive Champions League away games
➤ Milan has won just 1 of their previous 8 Champions League meetings
➤ Milan average 0.60 goals in UCL fixtures this term
Newcastle United vs. AC Milan: The Betting Odds
➤ Newcastle 10/11
➤ Draw 3/1
➤ AC Milan 16/5
When we explore UK betting options online, unsurprisingly, the bookmaker’s odds favour the home side. This price is likely due to the impressive home form Newcastle maintains and their commendable performance in Milan during the reverse fixture.
However, neither side presents a level of form that’s worth a 10/11 price, and Tottenham Hotspur’s battering of Howe’s men this past weekend makes Milan an intriguing underdog at an excellent price of 16/5.
Prediction
With worrying streaks on both sides, we aren’t rushing to predict victory for either side in this matchup. However, five of Newcastle United’s last ten matches have generated three or more goals and seven of AC Milan’s previous ten fixtures have also resulted in over 2.5 goals, so betting on goals may be the safest bet.
While the reverse fixture – ending 0-0 – points towards a low-scoring affair, we anticipate Eddie Howe and Stefano Pioli to unleash attacking styles of play with everything to play for in this final 90 minutes of UCL group-stage action.
That said, the eagerness of both sides vying to reach the Champions League final 16 or the consolation of the Europa League could well lead to another draw, which also holds noteworthy betting value at 3/1.
Newcastle vs. Milan best bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5
Newcastle vs. Milan best betting value: Draw @ 3/1
Newcastle vs. Milan score prediction: 2-2
