Home » A never-ending saga: The numbers behind Milan’s striker struggles and three potential causes
piatek carlos bacca of AC Milan

A never-ending saga: The numbers behind Milan’s striker struggles and three potential causes

Photos: Marco Luzzani/Getty Images

When it comes to investing in strikers, AC Milan are certainly not the model club. The list of failures, sadly, is far larger than the number of successes.

Once again, one of the dominant media narratives surrounding Milan – despite a positive start to the season, and being two points off top – is the lack of a true centre-forward who has the propensity to battle for the Capocannoniere.

The big issue is that while Rafael Leao and Christian Pulisic continue to average close to a goal contribution per game, Santiago Gimenez and Christopher Nkunku are stuck on zero league goals. This is despite the fact they cumulatively cost over €70m, and bagged for fun elsewhere.

Just how bad is Milan’s record when it comes to spending on strikers, though? And what might be the reasons for the trend of failure?

The damning data

As SleeperMilan points out on X, it has been 13 years since the last time Milan had a striker with more than 20 goals in Serie A. That was Zlatan Ibrahimovic, with 28 goals in 2011-12.

Since then, the Rossoneri’s top scorers in Serie A have been:

➤ 2012/13: Stephan El-Shaarawy (16 Goals)
➤ 2013/14: Mario Balotelli (14 Goals)
➤ 2014/15: Jeremy Menez (16 Goals)
➤ 2015/16: Carlos Bacca (18 Goals)
➤ 2016/17: Carlos Bacca (16 Goals)
➤ 2017/18: Patrick Cutrone (10 Goals)
➤ 2018/19: Krzysztof Piątek (9 Goals)
➤ 2019/20: Ante Rebic (11 Goals)
➤ 2020/21: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (15 Goals)
➤ 2021/22: Olivier Giroud, Rafael Leão (11 Goals)
➤ 2022/23: Rafael Leão (15 Goals)
➤ 2023/24: Olivier Giroud (15 Goals)
➤ 2024/25: Christian Pulisic (11 Goals)

Carlos A Bacca Ahumada of AC Milan
Photo by AK BijuRaj/Getty Images

The closest to breaking the 20-goal marker – and perhaps the most ‘underrated’ name out of the aforementioned – is Bacca with 18 goals. He cost €30m when he signed from Sevilla in 2015.

To put things into context, during the same span of time Juventus have had the likes of Gonzalo Higuain, Carlos Tevez, Paulo Dybala and Cristiano Ronaldo. Napoli had Edinson Cavani, Dries Mertens, Higuain and Victor Osimhen.

Inter have had Mauro Icardi while they also boast the likes of Lautaro Martínez, Marcus Thuram, Ange-Yoan Bonny and Francesco Pio Esposito at present. All four of those have a shout for being more effective than Gimenez.

Since 2017, Milan have spent €169m on strikers, yet consistency in front of goal remains elusive. A breakdown of the spending, via Rohit Rajeev:

➤ Nikola Kalinić: €27.5m
➤ André Silva: €38m
➤ Krzysztof Piątek: €35m
➤ Zlatan Ibrahimović: Free
➤ Olivier Giroud: €1m
➤ Charles De Ketelaere: €37.5m
➤ Santiago Giménez: €30m

This is where Inter have outperformed Milan: every striker they’ve signed in that period – from Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro to Edin Džeko and Thuram – has delivered almost instantly.

They’ve got some wrong too admittedly, like Alexis Sanchez, Marko Arnautovic and Mehdi Taremi, but the hits make up for it.

Why so bad?

We can offer three reasons why Milan’s striker signings since 2017 have struggled, although they are not all-encompassing excuses, rather mitigating circumstances.

1️⃣ Serie A is a defensive league

Italian football prioritises results over entertainment. Many coaches are happy to secure a draw rather than chase a win, which naturally reduces space and makes life harder for traditional No.9s. Strikers in Serie A often face compact blocks, low spaces and heavy marking.

2️⃣ Lack of top-level No.9s in modern football

With the rise of false 9s under Guardiola and Spalletti in the late 2000s, football evolved. Teams increasingly prefer forwards who drop deep, link play and press, meaning classic penalty-box strikers became rarer. The global pool of elite No.9s has thinned out.

3️⃣ Milan lack the budget for a world-class striker

Top strikers today cost Premier League money:

➤ Rasmus Højlund: €75m
➤ Benjamin Šeško: €80m
➤ Joshua Zirkzee: €50m
➤ Alexander Isak: €150m

Even then, there’s no guarantee they’ll deliver immediately (everyone thought Isak was a home-run signing, for example). With Serie A far behind the Premier League in revenue, Milan simply cannot match the financial muscle of England’s elite. Thus, market dynamics change to mean €35-40m signings are a gamble.

A thought-provoking point: if false 9s evolved through Pep Guardiola and Luciano Spalletti, why has only Maurizio Sarri truly maximised this system in Serie A with Mertens in that Napoli team?

Does this suggest Italian football hasn’t evolved tactically at the same pace as other leagues? A debate worth having. In the meantime, the debate Milanisti are having is regarding who is the ‘next striker’. It’s a familiar tale.

Tags AC Milan

14 Comments

  1. 1.Serie A is a defensive league.

    You can’t use this as one of the reasons for Milan strikers struggling when you just praised Juventus, Napoli and Inter strikers for their success in the same league.
    Also, outside of Allegri, I don’t think that any other Milan coach was defensive minded during that time. Montella, Gattuso, Giampaolo, Pioli, Fonseca, Conceição.

    2. Lack of top-level No.9s in modern football.

    Absolutely 💯. That’s why you need your forwards/wingers to score at least 10 goals a season in the league.

    3. Milan lack the budget for a world-class striker.

    If Hojlund, Sesko, Zirkzee and Isak are considered top class strikers, that is all you need to know about the striker position in todays football.

    1. “If Hojlund, Sesko, Zirkzee and Isak are considered top class strikers, that is all you need to know about the striker position in todays football.”
      Isak was pretty good during the last 2 seasons by relatively any metric, scoring 20+ goals in the EPL alone. It’s right now that he is completely trash.
      All the others are, at most, average.

  2. My big takeaway is the lack of quality Italian strikers. When you don’t have the budget and there is a lack of homegrown talent, it becomes tough. Camarda seems to be a ‘good’ player, but not with WC potential.

    No more Baggio’s or Del Piero’s in sight!?

    1. I think this year we have to believe and play Camarda as a starter.
      If we don’t get a WC striker this January
      I think Camarda had the potential to became Word class if he play regularly as a starter.

      Forza Milan

      1. He is a regular with Lecce and struggling… I think he’s a ways off yet better to get the struggles out in Lecce than in front of the ruthless fans in Milan

  3. Gimenez has had a number of good chances that he’s missed. He also does not seem to be strong in the box or fast for when he drops back. He is a limited player.

  4. I totally disagree that Milan main issue is the striker, remember when we took 2 Serie A top scores only for them to fail at Milan. To me I see the problem is the low level of feeding for the strikers (except for Gimenez who for some reason has bad luck even though he puts the effort of the ball).

  5. I don’t think Arnautovic was that bad choice for Inter. Considering he was Nr. 3 or so he did score a few important goals.

  6. Speaking of strikers
    Yesterday:
    – Haaland when asked about Pio Esposito:
    “I don’t know much about him tbh, no disrespect. 

    Today:
    – RAI Sport pundit Daniele Adani trolled Erling Haaland after Francesco Pio Esposito’s opening goal in Italy- Norway: Do you know him now?’

    Few minutes later:
    – ITALY 1-4 NORWAY.

    1. Was looking at that fake thinking a 1 goal lead wasn’t enough and it felt like Italy put all they had in that half while Norway barely got past first gear smh 🤦‍♂️
      Italy, I wouldn’t say they celebrated too early but they thought they did the job in the first half a bit too much for my liking

  7. signor ibrahimovic signor rare signor scaroni signor cardinale plz but woltemade nick from newcastle and i promis he will score 25 per season forza milan rossoneri per sempre

  8. The fact that there is a different striker listed for newly every season doesn’t give an answer?

    Milan have signed at least one new striker every season for over 20 seasons.

    How was any one of them expected to become established when they kept being replaced.

    Before this madness the likes of Inzaghi, Shevchenko, Weah, Bierhoff, Massaro, Simone etc would play a number of seasons, and some seasons they’d score lots and some they’d score less.

    Shevchenko had the following stats between 00/01 and 03/04:

    00/01 24 in 34
    01/02 14 in 29
    02/03 5 in 24
    03/04 24 in 32

    Nowadays Shevchenko would be gone in 01/02 and certainly 02/03, and Milan would’ve missed out on his Balon D’or season in 03/04.

    Inzaghi had similar ups and downs only hitting double figures in 6 of his 9 seasons.

    It’s actually quite rare for a striker to arrive at a new club and immediately start scoring.

    It happens. But that is a the exception not the rule.

    Endlessly looking for the next immediate hit is not a long term strategy for any position especially for strikers.

    Giménez will presumably be moved on again soon having been given less than a year to live up to his €37 million price.

    Again football is the only thing outside of the current White House where a person can p*ss €37 million away and keep their job.

    Perhaps like the current White House it’s because others are getting cuts of the money along the way.

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