In the last few days, the headlines surrounding AC Milan have been dominated by discussions about Rafael Leao’s present and future.
In case you missed the post-Lazio controversy, Leao expressed anger that Christian Pulisic didn’t pass to him on the field, which then continued when Massimiliano Allegri brought him off shortly after. It has since been resolved with an apology, yet doubts still remain about the Portuguese.
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Leao: Help or hinderance?
One thing is certain: Leao was placed at the centre of the project by the incoming coach Massimiliano Allegri, who decided from very early on in preseason that he wanted to use a 3-5-2 and that the former Lille man would partner Pulisic up top.
Sunday evening’s loss against Lazio was perhaps emblematic of where things are at. Due to a variety of different factors – with the main one being limited time together due to injuries – the front two just hasn’t clicked.
Corriere dello Sport (via MilanPress) have also presented some numbers which seem to underline that Leao is no longer so essential for the Rossoneri. This season he has scored 10 goals, his personal best at this point in the season, but he has a lot fewer assists than in the past.
With Leao on the pitch, the Rossoneri have generated 1.70 xG (Expected Goals) per game so far, compared to 2.16 xG without him. It must be noted Rafa has missed seven games against lower-quality opponents: Cremonese, Lecce, Bologna, Udinese, Verona, Bologna and Parma.
The same goes for xGA (Expected Goals Against): with Leao, Milan concede an average of 1.32 xGA, while without him, they concede just 0.45. It is another huge difference, but again the opposition is key, as is Allegri’s approach in the various games.
The statistic is supported by another key bit of data: with Leao on the pitch, Milan have conceded 11.82 shots per game, and without him it is 8. It suggests that the Diavolo are more unbalanced when he is present and perhaps have less tendency to press in an organised way.
Leao is effectively a ‘high-variance asset’, which means that he is a player who amplifies both opportunities and risks. Allegri knows this well, and he accepted the task early in the season, one he isn’t giving up on.
Then, there is another question: if you take Leao’s ten goals out of the picture, who steps up to fill the void? Milan’s forwards have ranged from inconsistent to non-existent all season, and the midfield hasn’t provided the output Allegri wanted either. So, it is a complicated picture to digest.
“It must be noted Rafa has missed seven games against lower-quality opponents: Cremonese, Lecce, Bologna, Udinese, Verona, Bologna and Parma.”
Milan played most of the games vs Juventus and Napoli at the beginning of the season without Leao and he only played 1 half vs Atalanta. If there is one player that usually doesn’t show up vs big teams it is Leao.
Then, there is another question: if you take Leao’s ten goals out of the picture, who steps up to fill the void?
Nkunku could have scored the penalties Leao did, and probably scored the other goals too if he was played every game week in week out no matter how bad he was, like Leao did. Nkunku had a good stretch of games, he played consistently, scored and then Allegri decided to insist playing Pulisic and Leao no matter how bad they are.
BTW, Nkunku has 6 goals and 3 assists, only 3 less goal contributions than Leao this season in 500 less minutes, getting inconsistent playing time, and people talk about him like he is trash while Leao is getting praised. Nkunku also plays out of position, on top of being new in the league.
Milan played their best football when Leao wasn’t on the pitch. He is the main player that doesn’t fit in this 352 Allegri system.
It’s anything garbage against Leao for you, we all know that, but you lot will have to suck it in, cos Leao is here to stay.
just to correct your insinuation that Leao don’t show up in big games, please check the champions league, Real Madrid, PSG even Napoli, I will limit it at this for now
7 seasons at Milan and you struggled to find 3 games where Leao played well vs a big team. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Rafael Leão has a goal and an assist in 12 appearances against Juventus in Serie A in his career.
Rafael Leão has 3 goals and 2 assists in 14 appearances versus Inter in Serie A in his career.
Rafael Leão has 2 goals and an assist in 10 appearances versus Napoli in Serie A in his career.
Big game player.
Touché!!! 😀 😀 😀
Yes, Z, the guy that thinks Nkunku is a great striker is right? You are so pathetic you’d agree with anything just to spit on Leao. You are subhuman.
” the guy that thinks Nkunku is a great striker is right?”
LOL!!! I see you’re one of those pathetic w4nkers who make up stories when getting butt-hurt by someone’s opinions or facts.
If you knew anything about me you’d know I have never said anything positive about Nkunku but that wouldn’t suit your narrative, now would it? Just die already you sad little troll.
Ah you probably meant Z thinks that way… The fck do I care if he thinks that way. It doesn’t change the facts said about Leao. 😀 😀 😀
BTW, just this season alone Jens Peter Hauge scored as many goals (6) in UCL as Leao has scored in his entire career playing in the UCL. Hauge is also a winger.
Leao has whopping 5 total goals scored for his national team couple months away from turning 27, and people said he is Cristiano’s heir.
Big game player for big competitions.
LOL, you can’t make this sh1t up! 😀 😀 😀
lol
For me the debate is not so much his contribution but what his explosive demeanor could mean for harmony and unity in the dressing room. And for that he is a potential liability that could cause serious damage if not managed properly. The flipside is that he might need a different environment to find his desire again. Maybe he has gotten too used to his environment and is taking things for granted with this “cult” status he has at Milan. If it is a motivation thing maybe moving him along might be a win win situation for him and the team. I’ve seen Neymar, Ronaldo, Maradona, Ronaldinho, Eto, Ibra, being moved on when their behavior threatened the dressing room. Do we want to take that chance with Leao. I love him to bits and will be the first to clap for all he has done for the team but Milan comes first and if he can get away with this we will set a regrettable precedent with far reaching implications…
This is it. He considers himself bigger than the club. I’ve had an issue with this for years and we should have sold Leao rather than Tonali.
I rewatched All or Nothing: Arsenal. When Arteta made a stance to exclude Auba because he was toxic and wasnt producing, it changed the trajectory of the club.
We need something similar but at least Leao has value still.
So he’s going to be really, really good or really, really bad.
Got it!
I often come off as anti-Leao. What I am against is this fawning over him and excuse making for him. He is a very good player with faults. Is he elite. No. Neither is Pulisic. He is just a very good player. ACM would be better off if Allegri can find a way to have those two produce together. That’s on him. Right now to me the offense is sacrificed for the defense. I think the offense is sacrificed too much. Everyone points to last year’s finish. The year before they finished second. I believe there was so much turmoil in the locker room and disrespect for the managers last year that this team significantly underperformed. Allegri, to his credit has cracked the whip. But our we starting to see turmoil again? We’ll see.
👍
he is a weed destroying the crop. pluck him out and throw him away for the good of the team