Opta: Milan have a 5.7% chance in the Europa League – Pioli’s strong response

By Oliver Fisher -

Stefano Pioli seemed fired up by a prediction that his side have a less than six per cent chance of winning the Europa League, insisting he will let his players know too.

The data company Opta Analyst revealed their calculations when it comes to who is the team that is most likely to go on and lift the trophy in Dublin in May.

It is perhaps no surprise that Premier League title candidates Liverpool lead the way with a 30.5% chance as per Opta’s algorithms, while Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen are second on 19.2% meaning there is an almost 50% chance one of those two win it.

Then, there is a sharp drop-off to Atalanta in third on 7.5%, following by Brighton at 7% and Benfica at 6.2%. At this point, you might well be wondering if they have forgotten Milan.

Opta believe that the Rossoneri – at 5.7% – are the sixth-likeliest to win the Europa League, and they are following by West Ham at 4.6%, Sporting CP at 4.4%, RC Lens at 2.8%, Marseille at 1.8% and Roma at 1.5%.

Milan sent a statement to their doubters with a 3-0 win over a Stade Rennais side who had won every game in 2024 last night, and after the game Pioli responded to Opta’s ranking.

“Right before the match my staff sent me a statistic according to which Milan have a 5% chance of winning the Europa League. I will use it to motivate my players,” he said.


Tags AC Milan Stefano Pioli


  1. Good. That means less pressure for Milan and put more pressure for Liverpool, Leverkusen, and other teams who have higher chance than Milan.

    1. They dont take any pressure even if its 90%

      What matters is how better the coach is prepared for big matches and how better he make his players understand what he wants from them.

      We cannot always win by just players skills, there should be better tactics too especially against big teams

    2. Honestly unless we change the way we deal with big games, it won’t really matter how much pressure you put on Liverpool and Leverkusen. Heck even Atalanta got the better of us this year.
      Also Liverpool won many titles with this side so I doubt Europa League is that big of a pressure for them. Them, Leverkusen and even us btw are pretty much guaranteed to be in UCL next season.
      Unless we start adapting and respecting opposition we will end up losing once the competition steps up.

  2. Flying under the radar is always better… If we’re lucky, Bayern and Liverpool square off and one gets eliminated before we have to face them.

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