AC Milan’s mission to get into the top four is not over yet, but the runway is getting shorter and an acceleration is needed in order to take off.
As La Gazzetta dello Sport writes, there are a lot of smaller issues at Milan from the use of the ‘Fantastic Four’ to the poor form of certain stars, but the fact remains that Sergio Conceicao and his side need to find a way to get to at least 70 points.
That is the minimum usually required to get fourth spot. Milan have so far put together 41, or 1.64 points per game, an average that is insufficient in terms of getting a place in the Champions League.
Before the defeat to Torino, Conceiçao was on a pace of two points per game in the league, which would be enough. However, that has now changed, and there is a gap accumulated previously to overhaul anyway.
If the Rossoneri remained at the current average they would close on 62 points: a quota that in recent years has been between sixth and seventh place, or between the Europa League and the Conference League.
If instead in the remaining 13 games the average was two points per game, the final landing would be 67: insufficient for fourth place. The calculation is therefore easy to do: to get fourth 29 points should be needed, or an average of 2.23 points per game.
Starting from the current 1.64 points per game, it means an increase of 0.59. So: win 10 out of 13, or nine with three draws, and so on. It is objectively complex, especially with the likes of Bologna, Lazio, Fiorentina, Atalanta and Napoli still to come.
For the record, Milan (apart from Bologna, who they have not faced yet) Milan in the first half of the season had a points per game average of 1.63, against the teams they have yet to face. Not good enough, a constant theme.
I think all calculations are pointless.
Milan don’t have a game, they don’t play good. They can’t suddenly start playing well and winning it is not possible.
Thank u bro true talk
we will end up in the Europa league. No shame in it, it is who we are right now. Talented, inconsistent, with stars that put their best whenever they want and a coach on the job for a few months.
We can dream and hope till it is mathematically impossible.
Juventus will close above 70 points, they have easy fixtures. I would expect that at least 73-75 points are needed. Practically impossible for Ac Milan. Only hope is the remote possibility of Italy securing a 5th UCL spot.
WIth only one Italian team in UCL against 3 Spanish ones it’s already over. Sure, there’s still Roma in Europa League but it’s not going to save us either.
No, it’s possible. Don’t forget Fiorentina in conference and Lazio and roma. Sure 1 Italian team left but if Spain lose a few teams then it’s possible. All competitions not just champions League. England are top because Chelsea won all their 8 games in conference.
No, it’s over. There is no reason to expect that Spanish teams will suddenly falter; they are good and Spain is already ahead. Even if what you said about Fiorentina, Lazio and Roma happens, that would just keep the status quo while Italy would need to gain terrain over Spain, to catch up. It won’t happen. It’s just 4 for Serie A and they will almost certainly be Inter, Napoli, Atalanta, and Juventus. No UCL for us next season.
Yeah exactly. I’d like to see some simulations to see what results would be required for Italy to get the 5th, I’m sure it’s mathematically possible, tho unlikely. Inter can also theoretically win the UCL or advance. And Madrid and Atleti drew each other.
Hope is more to see Atalanta go on a losing streak after next round.
I said months ago that Juventus would be the main threat for 4th. All they had to do is start scoring, and they’re doing that. They still have only 1 loss! It’s almost certainly game over for 4th. We would have to win out, and that ain’t happening with this squad and coach.
Milan must sign Gasperini to become the new head coach for the next season if champion’s league not achieve,he won’t renew their deal with Atalanta
So Milan at a minimum would need 70 points and would also need to beat direct competitors Lazio, Bologna and Fiorentina plus win 7 other of the remaining 13 games. So Milan can lose only 3 games (Napoli and Atalanta come to mind; that leaves space for only one other defeat). Points-per-game need to go from the current 1.64 to 2.23. That’s the “at a minimum” and even if this is achieved, we’d also need Juve to drop significant points to other teams, as we can no longer influence them.
Given how irregular we’ve been, I find it all utterly impossible at this point.
Not to forget, Juve seem to be at peak now and they seem to have moved up from their string of draws.
So even if we suddenly became consistent winners which hasn’t been the case the entire season, it could be all for naught if Juve simply continue their good form.
Give up. Milan are a Europa level team, maybe even worse.
Well the truth is that we are the architect of our own problem, starting from the management.
If you want to compete big, then spend big.
If you want to build up to be big, then be ready to suffer a season or two before you get a solid team.
The problem is we want to have both. Spend small and get immediate results. Team takes time to build. Therefore to suddenly expect results in all competition (scudetto, champs, copa…) not factoring things that can go wrong is a bad way to do business.