AC Milan will look to make an early-season statement on Tuesday night when they welcome the league leaders Napoli to San Siro.
Milan currently have an asterisk next to their name in the table after their game against Bologna on Saturday was postponed, something that was a debacle in itself. Antonio Conte’s side are in town and will be full of confidence after their start to the season, which has them top of Serie A.
Paulo Fonseca admitted in his pre-match press conference that they would have liked to have played at the weekend, and insisted that the Scudetto remains the target for the season.
Game Date: Tuesday, October 28
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CET)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Andrea Colombo (VAR: Marini)
Team news
In truth, it is a far from ideal situation for Fonseca when it comes to selecting his team to face Napoli, because of the number of important absentees that he must deal with.
It was known that both Theo Hernandez and Tijjani Reijnders would not make the trip to the Stadio Renato dall’Ara to face Bologna as both would serve suspensions. However, the postponement of that game means they will be suspended for the game on Tuesday instead.
In addition to those two being out, Matteo Gabbia has picked up a calf injury which will see him miss at least the next couple of games. Alessandro Florenzi, Ismael Bennacer and Marco Sportiello remain out after surgery, while Luka Jovic (back) and Tammy Abraham (shoulder) are injured too.
Starting with the easier replacement to predict, it should be Filippo Terracciano who takes the spot of Theo on the left side of the defence. The Italian got the nod against Udinese when Theo served the first game of his ban, and while he wasn’t brilliant he also was not a disaster either.
At centre-back, Fikayo Tomori has experience playing against Conte sides and against Romelu Lukaku so logically, he should be in, with his partner imaginably more likely to be Strahinja Pavlovic than Malick Thiaw.
In midfield, it feels at the moment as though Ruben Loftus-Cheek is the most likely to start alongside Youssouf Fofana in the midfield pairing, given that in terms of starts and substitute appearances he is currently the first midfield reserve.
In goal, there will be no changes, so Mike Maignan remains between the sticks. Whilst Fikayo Tomori feels like the ‘certain’ choice in defence, this evening’s reports suggest that Fonseca is set to prefer Malick Thiaw, and the German will partner Strahinja Pavlovic. Terracciano and Emerson Royal will flank them.
In midfield, suggestions about the Rossoneri operating in a ‘more physical’ way have not come fully to fruition. Ruben Loftus-Cheek is set to start, but he will do so alongside Fofana, rather than as the Trequartista as suggested earlier.
Instead, Christian Pulisic will take the spot in front of the midfield pivot, and he will be flanked, once again, by Samuel Chukwueze and Noah Okafor. It does not come as a shock to see Alvaro Morata to lead the line, given he is the only fit first-team option.
Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Emerson, Thiaw, Pavlovic, Terracciano; Fofana, Loftus-Cheek; Chukwueze, Pulisic, Okafor, Morata.
The opponents
It was all-change for Napoli in the summer as they managed to eventually persuade Conte to take the job, and they backed him with an ambitious summer mercato.
Alessandro Buongiorno arrived from Torino for €35m to be the new anchor of the defence, Scott McTominay joined from Manchester United for around €30m and Lukaku teamed up with his old coach, signing from Chelsea for €30m.
David Neres was signed from Benfica for €28m, Billy Gilmour joined from Brighton for €14m and Rafa Marin arrived from Real Madrid for €12m for a total summer spend of €149.5m.
In terms of outgoings, the main one was Victor Osimhen on loan to Galatasaray after a saga that seemed like it would never end.
Leo Ostigard was the only player to leave permanently for money (€7m, to Rennes) while Diego Demme, Piotr Zielinski, Pierluigi Gollini, Hamed Traore, Natan, Jesper Windstorm and Jens Cajuste all left.
Many predicted a potentially bumpy relationship between Conte and Napoli after they lost 3-0 away at Hellas Verona in round one and he made comments about the squad being incomplete. Since then they have won eight out of nine, dropping points only in a 0-0 draw to Juventus.
However, the feeling is that a litmus test period is coming for a team who have the benefits of no European competitions. After Milan, the Partenopei face Atalanta at home, Inter away, Roma at home, Torino away and Lazio at home.
Nonetheless, they so far have the joint-best defence in the league with five goals conceded in nine games (three of those in game one) and after Inter 4-4 Juventus they sit four points clear at the top.
Compared to their opponents, Napoli have a fairly clean bill of health. Nikita Contini, who has muscle fatigue, is expected to miss the game, as is Stanislav Lobotka. Leonardo Spinazzola was reportedly set to miss the game, but it seems he has recovered.
This means that Conte will probably line his side up in a regular 4-3-3. Meret, Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno and Spinazzola will make up the back five – with the Italian wingback set to return after recovering from injury.
In midfield, Billy Gilmour should keep his place from the weekend’s victory against Lecce, given Lobotka is still expected to be absent. McTominay and Anguissa should also play, with the former Manchester United midfield taking up the Trequartista role.
Ahead of them, Conte will recall Politano and Kvaratskhelia to the starting squad after the duo missed the weekend’s fixture, and they will play either side of Romelu Lukaku.
Predicted Napoli XI (4-3-3): Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Spinazzola; Anguissa, Gilmour, McTominay; Politano, Lukaku, Kvaratskhelia.
Head to head
Milan have played against Napoli 175 times in their almost 125-year history, and have only played against seven teams more. The record reads 70 wins, 54 draws and 51 defeats, a win rate of 40%.
Last season produced two entertaining spectacles, with the first ending in a 2-2 draw. Olivier Giroud’s brace had put the Rossoneri in command after 30 minutes, but Politano and Raspadori hit back in the second half.
In the return fixture, Milan triumphed 1-0 at San Siro and it was thanks to a lovely combination goal in which Rafael Leao’s through ball set up Theo Hernandez. Fans may remember is as the game that the black ‘Pleasures’ fourth kit was worn in.
Napoli went on a run of not beating the Diavolo at San Siro from 1986 to 2013, but since then they have won five of 12 such meetings, including three of the last five.
Key facts and stats
➤ Milan have won three of the last five Serie A encounters against Napoli (D1 L1), as many wins as in the 22 previous league meetings with the Partenopei (W3 D8 L11).
➤ Napoli are unbeaten in eight of the last nine Serie A away games against Milan (W5 D8), losing the most recent, a 0-1 defeat on 11 February 2024 (goal by Theo Hernández). The last time the Rossoneri enjoyed at least two consecutive home league wins against the Partenopei dates back to the period between 2000 and 2008 (three on that occasion).
➤ Milan have won only one of the last nine meetings with Napoli played in the first half of a Serie A campaign (D2 L6): a 3-1 win on 22nd November 2020 (thanks to an Ibrahimovic brace and Hauge’s goal for the Rossoneri, Mertens for the Partenopei).
➤ Among the sides that have played more than one Serie A game on a Tuesday, Napoli have posted the highest goals per game average – 2.4 (31 goals in 13 matches); on the other hand, Milan have failed to find the net in their three most recent league games played on this day of the week, but have kept a clean sheet in three of their last four (the only exception being a 0-4 defeat against Lazio on 24 January 2023).
➤ Milan have registered a clean sheet in three of their last five Serie A games (as many as they managed in the previous 14) and could keep a shutout in two consecutive matches in the competition for the first time since last March (against Lazio and Empoli).
➤ Milan have won three home games in a row in Serie A without conceding a goal for the first time since May 2022 and have not done better in the competition since a run of four between March and May 2014.
➤ Napoli are unbeaten in their last three Serie A away games, having won two of them (D1), as many as they had recorded in their previous 13 away from home league games (W2 D5 L6).
➤ Christian Pulisic has been involved in at least one goal in each of his last seven league games (five goals and three assists); only one Milan player has been directly involved in at least one goal (goals and assists) in more consecutive appearances in a single Serie A season since 2004/05: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (10 between October and December 2010).
➤ Theo Hernández will miss the match against Napoli due to suspension;. In the last three seasons across all competitions (since 2022/23), Milan have won 54% of their games with the French player on the pitch (54 out of 101), scoring 1.9 goals on average – without him, however, the Rossoneri’s win rate falls to 29% (4 out of 14), scoring 0.8 goals on average.
➤ Matteo Politano has scored five goals against Milan in Serie A, against no other opponent he has done better in the competition (five also against Genoa); in addition, the Napoli striker has scored five away goals at San Siro; in the last 10 seasons only Fabio Quagliarella (six) and Domenico Berardi (seven) have done better playing away from home in the top flight in this stadium.
Ones to watch
Starting with the visitors, Milan must keep an eye on Scott McTominay. The Scotsman has been exceptional for Conte so far, and if he is not dealt with properly, he could cause real trouble in the Rossoneri’s half. However, he also can sit deeper if needed, so he could be a dictator in the game if the Partenopei need some calm.
The other key focus for the Diavolo will have to be Lukaku. It feels like Milan have made attempts for him every summer recently, and under Conte, he has shown signs of his former self. There have been some questionable moments since they re-united, but against an unfamiliar centre-back partnership, the Belgian could run ragged.
We’re going to stick at centre-back for our next player to watch, and we’re putting forward Malick Thiaw. The German has not started the season fantastically, having a horror show on Matchday 1 and then getting injured. Opportunities since then have been hard to get, so the German must show he can still perform to a high level if he is to get chances past this game, especially with Fonseca looking away from Tomori – who would have more experience in this type of game.
The next player to watch is Loftus-Cheek. Fonseca is looking for more physicality in midfield to combat Conte’s play style, so this game could favour the Englishman. However, he must hit the ground running. There have been repeated questions about the midfielder’s future in this team, so if he is to prove himself, there is no better game to do so than this one.
Prediction
This is a really tough game to call because Napoli have looked really strong in all types of games – barring their only loss on the first match day. The Partenopei have won gritty games, and they have won games they have been expected to dominate.
However, Fonseca will look to make things very difficult for Conte’s side, and they have been successful with this against Inter. Given what is on the line, it will probably be a very cagey affair, but one that the Rossoneri may just – and more importantly, need to – get the better of.
Milan 2-1 Napoli
Why is Rafa not starting again?
0-0
Let’s play compact and defensive.
Otherwise, do what we typically do to Napoli, counter attack and win 3-1 😁
I don’t know what to think of this game. On one hand, Napoli are leading the table and are beating everybody, except for the first game against Verona and the 0-0 draw against Juve. And, we are missing important players.
On the other hand, other than Juve, Napoli hasn’t played any team yet that is among the top ten on the table. They beat a bunch of bottom feeders. We haven’t beaten great teams either except for Inter, but maybe, having been able to beat Inter does indicate that we should beat Napoli. We did not have all these missing players against Inter, though. But, we got more rest than Napoli.
I want to be optimistic and believe in this 2-1 prediction made by this article.