Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Torino – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction

AC Milan get both their 2024-25 campaign and the Paulo Fonseca era officially underway on Saturday night when they welcome Torino to San Siro.

It has been a very positive pre-season for Milan under their new coach as they won games against Manchester City, Real Madrid and Barcelona out in the United States before retaining the Silvio Berlusconi Trophy against Monza on Tuesday.

However, friendly results mean nothing unless they translate into a good start in the league, which is something that Fonseca himself stressed in his pre-match press conference.

Game date: Saturday, August 16
Kick-off time: 20:45 (CEST)
Venue: San Siro
Referee: Fabio Maresca (VAR: Doveri)

Team news

Fonseca will be able to rely on a strong squad for his first game, with no injuries to note, though Emerson Royal hasn’t been called up for bureaucratic reasons. Youssouf Fofana also hasn’t arrived yet but none of us expected him to be ready for the first game anyway.

According to the latest reports, there are only two doubts about the starting XI and in defence, it looks like it will be Davide Calabria, Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia and Theo Hernandez. Gabbia has seemingly won the battle against Malick Thiaw and that isn’t hugely surprising, considering the Italian’s performances last season.

In midfield, Ruben Loftus-Cheek could get to play in the tandem once again while Ismael Bennacer is certain to start. The Algerian has been a leader in pre-season and one would have to imagine that he will start most games with Tijjani Reijnders, who returned late due to the Euros.

Further up the pitch, more specifically in the attack, we found the second battle as Fonseca is deciding between Samuel Chuwkwueze and Alexis Saelemaekers. Both did very well in pre-season and as things stand, the Nigerian is ahead. Most would agree that he deserves to start the most after really showing great spirit in the pre-season.

Finally, Milan’s new No.7 Alvaro Morata will be up front and his Monza display was promising. Unlike Olivier Giroud, he’s a very mobile striker and this is something that the Rossoneri will benefit from, especially considering the qualities of the wingers.

In short, it’s a strong XI that Fonseca is expected to put on the pitch and the bench is not too bad either, with the likes of Strahinja Pavlovic, Reijnders, Noah Okafor and Luka Jovic able to lend a hand in the second half.

Predicted Milan XI (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Gabbia, Tomori, Theo Hernandez; Bennacer, Loftus-Cheek; Chukwueze, Pulisic, Leao, Morata.

The opponents

Torino finished in ninth place last season and thus decided to part ways with Ivan Juric, hiring Paolo Vanoli as his replacement. The latter coached Venezia last season and earned them promotion to the top flight, so there is some optimism among Il Toro fans.

Some interesting signings have been made, including Che Adams from Southampton, but they have also lost their star Alessandro Buongiorno. The centre-back was the true leader in defence and his absence should be notable, not to mention that Perr Schuurs is out with an injury.

Adam Masina and Mergim Vojvoda are both full-backs converted to centre-backs, so it will be very interesting to see them in the back three tomorrow evening. There are many familiar names in the rest of the XI, but on paper Milan are big favourites to clinch all three points.

The former Milan man Ricardo Rodriguez, who actually was quite the key player for Torino, also left this summer and he will not be able to score another goal against his former side. Another former Milan man Pietro Pellegri will also miss the game, more specifically due to injury (who could have guessed).

In conclusion, Vanoli has his work cut out for him in this first game, not only missing key defenders but also facing a much better side – in better form. Anything can happen in a season opener, though, so Milan shouldn’t get too cocky.

Predicted Torino XI (3-5-2): Milinkovic-Savic; Vojvoda, Coco, Masina; Bellanova, Ricci, Linetty, Ilic, Lazaro; Sanabria, Zapata.

Head to head

There are only three teams that Milan have played more across all competitions in their entire history (Roma, Inter and Juventus), with a record of 77 wins, 66 draws and 55 defeats in 198 games.

After winning the home game 4-1 last season thanks to goals from Theo, Pulisic and a brace by Giroud, Stefano Pioli’s men were aiming to complete the double over the Granata for the first time since the 2020-21 season, but ended up losing 3-1.

Duvan Zapata, Ivan Ilic and Ricardo Rodriguez had Ivan Juric’s side 3-0 up after just 46 minutes, and a penalty from Ismael Bennacer in the 55th minute proved to be a mere consolation.

Going into that fixture back in May, Milan had won six of their last eight Serie A matches against Torino (D1 L1), as many wins in the previous 17 games against Il Toro in the top-flight (D9 L2).

Milan can count themselves lucky that the game will be played at San Siro and not Stadio Olimpico, with just one win in the last six games at the latter (1D, 4L). At home, the Rossoneri have won five of the last six games (1D).

Key facts and stats

➤ Torino won their last match against Milan in Serie A (3-1 in May); in the last 38 years only once have the Granata obtained consecutive wins against the Rossoneri in the top-flight: between April and September 2019.

➤ Milan are unbeaten in 28 home games against Torino in Serie A (W20 D8) and overall, only against Hellas Verona (32) and Lazio (29) have the Rossoneri recorded a longer unbeaten streak at home in the competition; the last away win for the Granata against the Rossoneri in Serie A was in March 1985 (1-0 with a goal from Walter Schachner with Luigi Radice as coach).

➤ Milan have won each of their last four matches played on the first Serie A matchday, while the last time they recorded a longer winning streak in the first round of the championship was between 1987 and 1996 (10).

➤ After last season’s 0-0 draw against Cagliari, Torino could draw on the opening day of consecutive Serie A seasons for the first time since 2006-07 and 2007-08.

➤ Torino and Milan will face each other on the first day of the championship for the third time in Serie A, with one win each so far, in both cases for the home team: 2-1 for the Granata in September 1939 and 3-2 for the Rossoneri in August 2016.

➤ Milan ended last season with just one win in their last nine games in all competitions (D4 L4): 5-1 against Cagliari in May, after having recorded a run of seven consecutive wins.

➤ Paulo Fonseca will be the first Portuguese coach in AC Milan’s history in Serie A. Fonseca’s Lille were the Ligue 1 club that kept the most clean sheets in 2023-24 (22) as well as scoring the second-most goals (86) behind only PSG (124) in all competitions.

➤ Torino kept a clean sheet in 18 games in Serie A last season, fewer than only Inter (21); furthermore, only in 1976-77 (19 with Luigi Radice as coach) have the Granata record more clean sheets in a single Serie A season.

➤ Alvaro Morata has scored five goals in his last seven games of the season on his debut in the big five European leagues, after failing to score in his first seven of those. The Spanish striker is coming off his best scoring season in Europe’s big five leagues across all competitions: 21 goals in 48 games for Atletico Madrid in 2023-24.

➤ Duvan Zapata has scored six goals against Milan in Serie A. Since the 2015-16 season, the Colombian’s first goal against the Rossoneri — only Ciro Immobile (7) has scored more goals against the Rossoneri in the top-flight. Overall, the Torino striker has contributed to nine goals against Milan (3 assists also), fewer than only Paulo Dybala in this time in the competition (10).

Ones to watch

There are many to mention for Milan, truth be told, but one to keep a close eye on is Ismael Bennacer. The Algerian had a very positive pre-season, finding some rhythm again after the serious injury, and he could be very important this season with his defensive traits.

Samuel Chukwueze is another one, should he play from start, as we saw some great things in pre-season. He clearly lacked confidence last season and it seems the situation has improved significantly under Paulo Fonseca, which is great to hear.

As for Torino, we already mentioned that Mergim Vojvoda is playing out of position and it will be interesting to see how he handles it. We have seen him play in more defensive roles before but every time he has done well against Milan, it has been in the attacking phase.

Finally, Duvan Zapata is one that the defenders of Milan will have to keep track of in the box. He’s lethal in the air and the Rossoneri cannot give him any space. We got to see this first-hand in the 3-1 defeat last season.

Prediction

It might not be a walk in the park, seeing as it’s the first game and all, but Milan should still be victorious. Especially if we consider their record against Torino at San Siro, as well as the clear difference in squad quality. Some defensive doubts still remain, though.

Milan 2-1 Torino