AC Milan are looking to clinch their first win against Cremonese in the 21st century tomorrow, having dropped points on all three occasions so far.
Just a few weeks ago, Milan were not too far behind Inter and there was a buzz around city, knowing that the derby could bring them even closer. However, after a draw and a defeat, ten points now separate the two sides.
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The Scudetto hopes have certainly died down a bit as a result, but as Massimiliano Allegri highlighted during his presser, that doesn’t change anything for the team. They still have a lot of work to do and tomorrow’s game will require a hard-fought performance.
Game date: Sunday, March 1
Kick-off time: 12:30 (CET)
Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini
Referee: Davide Massa (VAR: Marco Guida)
Team news
Matteo Gabbia has been ruled out of the game as he’s still struggling with an inflammation, which Allegri confirmed during the aforementioned presser, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek obviously cannot feature either. The same goes for Santiago Gimenez, even if he could be back in training next week.
One of the main talking points has been that Zachary Athekame, Youssouf Fofana, Adrien Rabiot and Alexis Saelemaekers are all one yellow card away from suspension, meaning they would miss the derby if not careful. However, Allegri also said that he won’t take this into consideration for the XI.
With the above in mind, the defence will consist of Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter and Strahinja Pavlovic, allowing Davide Bartsaghi to move back to his left wing-back role after taking a step down against Parma. On the opposite side, Saelemaekers will keep his spot.
Ardon Jashari has impressed lately and most fans would like to see him from start, but as things stand, Youssouf Fofana is ahead of the Swiss international and also Samuele Ricci. Luka Modric and Rabiot are certain to start, though, so there are no surprises there.
Up front, Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao are expected to team up again, hopefully with a bit more success this time out. Allegri also made it clear during the presser that although two strikers will start, he will most likely involve the remaining two strikers with substitutions.
With the derby coming up after this one, even if Allegri perhaps doesn’t want to admit it, Milan should try to avoid injuries at all costs (if there is a way to do that!). Furthermore, the players that are one yellow away from suspension need to be careful, especially Rabiot.
Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Leao.
Predicted bench: Terracciano, Pittarella, Athekame, Odogu, Estupinan, Jashari, Ricci, Nkunku, Füllkrug.
Injuries & suspensions: Gabbia, Gimenez, Loftus-Cheek.
The opponents
After what was a cracking start to the season by Nicola and his Cremonese, including the win against Milan in the opening round, things have taken a turn for the worse. In fact, they haven’t won a game since last year, December 7 to be precise (!).
They haven’t exactly made up for that with many draws either, which has put them in a really difficult spot in the relegation battle. Lecce, the third-placed team from the bottom, have the same amount of points (24) and have been in a much better form lately (so there is some momentum).
On the bright side, the reason they did so well at the start of the season is still at Nicola’s disposal, namely their squad. In fact, they even strengthened it during the January window with the additions of Sebastiano Luperto and Morten Thorsby, two Serie A players.
It would be easy – perhaps even lazy – to name-drop Jamie Vardy on this front, but the truth is that the likes of Emil Audero, Federico Baschirotto, Giuseppe Pezzella, Alberto Grassi, and Federico Bonazzoli come to mind when you think about why they should be able to stay up.
Put shortly, there is far too much Serie A experience there (not to mention Nicola’s history with avoiding relegation) there for Cremonese to struggle this much. As Milan fans, however, we know too well that player material doesn’t matter if the system is fundamentally broken.
It hasn’t exactly helped that Baschirotto has sustained a muscle injury, which forced him to be sidelined against Roma and he won’t return tomorrow either. The fact that he had played the full 90 minutes in every league game before the injury says a lot about the magnitude of his absence.
As a side note, it’s worth keeping an extra eye on the Milan loanees Filippo Terracciano and Warren Bondo tomorrow, as both are set to start the game.
Predicted Cremonese XI (3-5-2): Audero; Terracciano, Luperto, Bianchetti; Barbieri, Bondo, Thorsby, Maleh, Pezzella; Bonazzoli, Djuric.
Predicted bench: Silvestri, Nava, Folino, Ceccherini, Pavesi, Faye, Zerbin, Payero, Vandeputte, Grassi, Sanabria, Moumbagna, Vardy.
Injuries & suspensions: Baschirotto, Collocolo, Floriani.
Head to head
There have been just 30 encounters between Milan and Cremonese throughout the years, with the Rossoneri prevailing in 17 of these. The Cremona-based side have collected seven wins, while the remaining six ended in draws.
Since Cremonese have only been in Serie A for two seasons in the 21st century, including the current one, the data above perhaps doesn’t hold much relevance today. A more striking fact would be that in the last three meetings, Milan haven’t won a single time (2D, 1L).
The defeat was in the reverse fixture this season, when Baschirotto and Bonazzoli found the back of the net for Cremonese to clinch all three points. The most recent game at Stadio Giovanni Zini, meanwhile, ended 0-0 despite many chances for Milan.
Key facts and stats
➤ US Cremonese could win consecutive Serie A matches against AC Milan for the first time, after their 2-1 success on the opening matchday last 23 August. More generally, Cremonese are unbeaten in their last three league matches against AC Milan (W1 D2).
➤ AC Milan have failed to score in their last three Serie A away games against Cremonese (D2 L1); the last Rossoneri players to score against the Grigiorossi at the Stadio Giovanni Zini in the competition were Jean Pierre Papin and Marco Simone in a 2-0 victory on 26 September 1993.
➤ US Cremonese have recorded their second-longest winless run in Serie A (D4 L8), after a 30-game streak between April 1996 and February 2023. In their current run of 12 matches, US Cremonese have failed to score in 10 of them.
➤ US Cremonese have drawn the most home games in Serie A this season at six of 12 (W2 D4), three of which have been goalless draws – a record matched only by Lecce and Pisa.
➤ Cremonese have failed to score in their last three Serie A home matches at the Stadio Zini. The club only once previously went four consecutive home league games without scoring in a single top-flight season, doing so between October 2022 and January 2023.
➤ Cremonese could become only the third promoted side in Serie A history to win both of their league games against AC Milan in a single season, after Ascoli in 1986/87 and Atalanta in 1940/41.
➤ Following their 0-1 defeat against Parma, AC Milan could fail to score in consecutive Serie A matches for the first time since April 2022 (against Bologna and Torino, both 0-0 draws on that occasion).
➤ AC Milan have scored more goals than any other side in the central half-hour of matches in Serie A this season (19 – between the 31st and 60th minutes, including nine in the last 15 minutes of the first half and ten in the first 15 minutes of the second half).
➤ This Serie A match brings together the two oldest players to have scored in the competition this season: Luka Modrié (two goals, born September 1985) and Jamie Vardy (five goals, born January 1987).
➤ Only Lautaro Martínez (eight) has scored more away goals than Christian Pulisic (six, level with Santiago Castro) in this Serie A season. Pulisic has never scored more away goals in a single Serie A season (six also in 2024/25), while considering the top five European leagues, he has only scored more away goals in the 2019/20 campaign (seven with Chelsea).
Ones to watch
For Milan, the first pick feels obvious: Rabiot. Not because of his qualities and what he contributes on the pitch, but because he’s one yellow card away from missing the derby. Allegri has decided to field the Frenchman, so he will need to be careful.
In attack, Pulisic is one that we all would love to see get going again. He has so much quality and can definitely make a difference in this season finale, but the feeling is that he will need a goal to break the ice. Maybe tomorrow is the day.
For the home side, Bondo is an interesting one as he will return to Milan at the end of the season. The game could thus be a chance for him to prove himself to the management, while it will also be fun to see his growth compared to last season (at least if you haven’t watched Cremonese much).
I simply have to mention Bonazzoli as well, who seemingly loves to score against Milan. He did so in the reverse fixture and has three goals against the Rossoneri, which is by far his best tally against any of the top teams in Italy.
Prediction
Considering Milan’s form lately, I’m not expecting this to be an easy one, even if you could argue that Cremonese have been really poor. The fact that it’s away from home adds another layer of difficulty and as such, one goal could be enough to seal the deal (as we have seen before this season).
Cremonese 0-1 Milan
Cremonese is 17th with negative goal difference(-15). Time for Allegri to pull out 6-4-0 formation just to be safe
Perfect. And, they haven’t scored a goal in their last seven games.