There’s no longer a margin for error as AC Milan must regroup after a string of underwhelming results and beat Genoa on Sunday, early afternoon.
Back-to-back defeats at the hands of Atalanta and Sassuolo have significantly compromised Milan’s hopes of securing Champions League qualification, allowing Roma to close the gap heading into the last two rounds.
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With nothing but a superior head-to-head record separating the sides ahead of Sunday’s kick-off, dropping points at the Luigi Ferraris would see the Rossoneri drop outside the top four.
Even without the distraction of European football, Massimiliano Allegri’s men have barely mounted a serious top-four challenge in Serie A this season, which is now at risk of fizzling out.
However, they’re still in firm control of their destiny, as Allegri made sure to highlight during his pre-match press conference.
Game date: Sunday, May 17
Kick-off time: 12:00 (CEST)
Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Referee: Simone Sozza (VAR: Mazzoleni)
Team news
Given the delicacy of the situation, Allegri would ideally field his strongest starting XI this weekend. Unfortunately, this is not an ideal world, and the gaffer winner will have to navigate this season-defining fixture without several stars.
Despite welcoming Fikayo Tomori back from suspension, Milan will have to deal without the likes of Pervis Estupinan, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Rafael Leao, who have all accumulated yellow cards and will not be at Allegri’s disposal.
Tomori’s return should at least tighten things up at the back, particularly after Koni De Winter’s erratic display last weekend. Therefore, the Englishman is in line for his 30th Serie A start of the season, with Strahinja Pavlovic and Matteo Gabbia expected to complement the back three.
On a positive note, Luka Modric has made a swift recovery from his cheekbone surgery, included in the squad for the game. He won’t play from the first minute, with Ardon Jashari to take on his role, but if he does come on, he will wear a mask.
Samuele Ricci picked up a knock during training this morning and will be evaluated tomorrow, but the feeling is that Youssouf Fofana will be the starter to the right. Adrien Rabiot, meanwhile, is a given and the likes of Zachary Athekame and Davide Bartesaghi will complete the midfield five.
Up front, Leao’s ban may not hit as hard as one might think, given the Portuguese international’s rough patch. However, Christian Pulisic isn’t in top condition either and could start on the bench, meaning none of Allegri’s most trusted forwards would play.
Perhaps Christopher Nkunku could emerge as a hero, buoyed by last weekend’s consolation goal at San Siro. Still, Allegri has a decision to make, with Santiago Gimenez and Niclas Fullkrug vying for the remaining spot in the final third.
All in all, we should be looking at five changes compared to the Atalanta game.
Predicted Milan XI (3-5-2): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Athekame, Fofana, Jashari, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Gimenez, Nkunku.
Predicted bench: Terracciano, Torriani, De Winter, Odogu, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Ricci, Pulisic, Füllkrug.
Injuries & suspensions: Saelemaekers, Estupinan, Leao.
The opponents
Having already staved off relegation fears, Genoa have nothing but pride left to play for. Sitting nine points below 10th-placed Udinese, they are heading towards a third consecutive bottom-half finish, and not even a win tomorrow would change that.
Nevertheless, head coach De Rossi will be heavily motivated to upset the Rossoneri this weekend and give his beloved Roma a massive top-four boost. Indeed, the former Giallorossi captain could have a huge impact in the fierce race for Champions League qualification.
However, history backs the visitors for success here, with Genoa going winless in their last ten meetings with Milan. Much has changed since January’s reverse fixture, though, which saw Leao score a late equaliser before Nicolae Stanicu squandered a last-gasp penalty.
The Rossoblu have gone into overdrive in the second half of the season, picking up nine more points than they collected in the first half. By now, it’s become clear that De Rossi’s men are not to be trifled with, and consecutive scoreless draws against Atalanta and Fiorentina serve as a further reminder of that.
In terms of key players, Ukrainian playmaker Ruslan Malinovskyi has established himself as the beating heart of Genoa’s midfield. The 33-year-old has been particularly ruthless at the Marassi, with three of his last four goals coming at home.
Known for his lethal left foot and set-piece ability, Malinovskyi may pose a genuine threat to Mike Maignan, as he could be a solution to Genoa’s recent scoring drought. Speaking of solutions, Milan academy graduate Lorenzo Colombo could also represent one, topping Genoa’s scoring charts in Serie A this season with seven goals.
It would be typical, not to mention expected, to see him haunt his previous club as that also happened in the reverse fixture. Colombo looks set to partner up with the youngster Jeff Ekhator (born in 2006), who has made quite the impression with his four goals this season.
Moving on to Genoa’s growing injury list, De Rossi is unable to call upon former Milan winger Junior Messias and sought-after wing-back Brooke Norton-Cuffy. The Ivorian winger Maxwel Cornet is also in the treatment room.
Predicted Genoa XI (3-4-2-1): Bijlow; Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vasquez; Ellertsson, Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Martin; Baldanzi; Ekhator, Colombo.
Predicted bench: Leali, Sommariva, Ekuban, Otoa, Masini, Martin, Onana, Cornet, Zatterstrom, Vitinha, Amorim.
Injuries & suspensions: Messias, Norton-Cuffy, and Cornet.
Head to head
Sunday’s clash in Liguria will be the 110th in Serie A between Genoa and Milan, with the Rossoneri boasting a clear advantage so far: 54 wins, 36 draws and 19 defeats. As if that’s not comforting enough, heading into this ‘make or break’ game, recent history stands firmly on Milan’s side.
The San Siro side have gone unbeaten in their last ten matches against Genoa, dating back to a 2-1 home loss in March 2020. However, the visitors would be naive to take anything for granted here, having barely avoided defeat in January’s reverse fixture.
Last season’s meeting at the Luigi Ferraris was also nerve-shredding. Following a goalless first half, Vitinha put Genoa in front just after the hour mark. Yet, Leao sparked a lightning-fast comeback with a 76th-minute equaliser.
It took Milan less than a minute to turn the game on its head, courtesy of Morten Frendrup’s unfortunate own goal. There’s little doubt that Allegri would sign up for another scrappy win this time around.
Key facts and stats
➤ AC Milan are unbeaten in 15 of their last 16 Serie A matches against Genoa (W10 D5); the Rossoblü’s only victory in this period was on 8 March 2020, a 2-1 win with goals from Goran Pandev and Francesco Cassata for Genoa and Zlatan Ibrahimovié for AC Milan.
➤ Milan have won each of their last three Serie A away games against Genoa CFC and have never recorded a longer consecutive run of away victories against them in the competition.
➤ Genoa have failed to score in their last three Serie A matches; the last time they registered a longer run without finding the net was between January and February 2022, when three different managers (Andriy Shevchenko, Abdoulay Konko and Alexander Blessin) took charge across four games.
➤ Genoa have won five of their last eight Serie A home matches (L3), as many victories as they managed in their previous 18 home games in the competition (D5 L8).
➤ Genoa have gained 25 points in the second half of this Serie A season, nine more than they collected in the first half (16) – this is the second-largest positive difference between the two halves of the season in the current campaign, behind only Fiorentina(+12).
➤ Milan have gained 17 fewer points in the second half of the current Serie A season (25) compared to the first half (42), which is the worst record in the competition.
➤ Even if they win their last two matches, Milan would still finish with 11 fewer points than in the first half of the season, with only two worse such differences in the top-flight in the three- points-for-a-win era (since 1994/95): -15 in 2016/17 and -17 in 2002/03.
➤ Milan have collected just four points in their last six Serie A matches (W1 D1 L4); the last time the Rossoneri gained so few points in a run of the same length in the competition was between September and October 2019, across the Giampaolo and Pioli managerial spells.
➤ Only Lecce (3997) have engaged in more duels than Genoa (3831) in Serie A this season, while AC Milan have been involved in the fewest one-on-one situations in the current campaign (2985).
➤ Genoa forward Lorenzo Colombo’s first five Serie A appearances came for Milan between July 2020 and January 2021. The striker has been involved in eight goals in Serie A this season (7 goals, 1 assist).
➤ Two of Colombo’s goals came against his former club, fewer only than the four he scored against Hellas Verona. He could set a new personal best in a single Serie A or Serie B campaign (also eight in 2024/25 with Empoli).
➤ Christopher Nkunku has scored six goals for Milan in Serie A this season, as many as he managed across his two previous Premier League campaigns with Chelsea combined (three in 2023/24 and three in 2024/25).
➤ Only Christian Pulisic (one goal every 194 minutes) boasts a better minutes-per-goal ratio than Nkunku (one every 202 minutes) among Milan players in the competition this term.
Ones to watch
Starting with Milan, now would be a perfect time for Gimenez to get off the mark. It’s been another disappointing season for the former Feyenoord goal-getter, but he could make up for everything with his first Serie A goal in a year. However, he will need someone to set him up.
That’s where Rabiot comes into play. Milan are unable to rely on Modric’s creativity from start, and it’s up to the Frenchman to fill the boots of the Croatian veteran and provide the spark. Especially since Ricci has struggled immensely in this department so far this season.
As for Genoa, they’ll likely put their fate into the hands of Colombo. The 24-year-old has often been the point of difference for De Rossi’s side, and he has lost just three of his six previous appearances against Milan, finding the back of the net twice in the process.
Colombo’s attacking partner, Vitinha, is another potential source of threat, as evidenced by his exploits in this corresponding fixture last season. Encouragingly for Milan, the Portuguese forward has been shy in front of goal this term, netting just five league goals to date.
Prediction
The math is pretty simple for Milan. Either they take three points here and keep Roma at bay, or slump to yet another frustrating result and let the Giallorossi take the driver’s seat.
With all due respect to Genoa’s newfound defensive resilience, this is a textbook definition of a ‘must-win’ clash for the Rossoneri, and we expect them to hold up their end of the bargain on Sunday.
Genoa 0-1 Milan
