Shots, creativity and defending: What the stats say about how Milan have really started the season

AC Milan have not had the desired start to the season. With just two points obtained from nine available, some are questioning Paulo Fonseca’s methods and the individuals within them.

Milan beat Premier League winners Manchester City, the champions of Europe Real Madrid and their El Clasico rivals Barcelona during their preseason tour of the USA, then won the Silvio Berlusconi Trophy 3-1 against Monza four days before the season opener.

However, things didn’t quite go to plan from there as the Rossoneri had to come from two goals down to rescue a late draw against Torino, then they lost 2-1 away against newly-promoted Parma and most recently let a lead slip against Lazio before rallying back to earn another 2-2 draw.

The table is already damning: Milan are five points behind their main rivals Inter and Juventus – teams that Fonseca said his side should be battling for the Scudetto with. Two points from three games and six goals conceded tell their own story, but what about some of the other numbers?

Scout7Calcio has provided a graph which takes a look at where Milan rank against the other 19 teams in Serie A in the key metrics, and it actually posts a far rosier picture than just what points total does, even if wins is all that matters.

The positives

Milan are 14th in the league table, and yet they are 2nd when it comes to possession as a percentage, Non Penalty Expected Goals, Shot Creating Actions per 90, Key Passes, Touches in the Attacking Penalty Area (opponent’s) and Opponent Touches in the Attacking Penalty Area (Milan’s).

So, from the data above, it would be fair to remark that Milan are very good at creating dangerous scoring chances, they have kept the ball better than almost anyone and they have had the better territory-wise in both boxes.

Fonseca’s side rank 3rd in Shot Creating Actions Per 90 Allowed, Shots on Target, Shot Allowed, Passes Into Final Third Allowed, Passes into Penalty Area and Passes into Penalty Area Allowed.

Once again, this suggests that Milan are actually dominating games in a way that the eye-test does not, although this does not necessarily mean control and rather playing a high-event style.

To round off, Milan are in the top five (Champions League places) for Goal Creating Actions Per 90, Passes into Final Third, Key Passes Allowed, Touches in the Attacking Third and Opponent Touches in the Attacking Third Allowed.

The negatives

The field doesn’t lie, so it can’t be all good, right? Well, the numbers also show that Milan are ninth for Passes Per Defensive Action (a tool to measure how effective the press is), which is not ideal given Fonseca’s emphasis on efficient and smart pressing.

In addition to that, the Rossoneri are 17th for Non Expected Penalty Goals Against, 20th for Goal Creating Actions Per 90 Allowed, 13th for Shot on Target % and 11th for Shots on Target Allowed.

There are only a couple of numbers on the chart where Milan are just ‘average’ and could be seen as having genuine room to improve. Instead, they are either flying in most metrics or are disastrous in others, which is reflective of what we have seen.

What is interesting though, when simplifying ‘good’ to be a green number and ‘bad’ to be anything on the red spectrum, last week’s opponents Lazio are the team that are almost all green, suggesting they could have more points than they do.

Inter are top eight in a lot of areas but top two in very few, while Thiago Motta’s Juventus are towards the bottom end on a number of categories, as are Torino (in third) and Udinese (in fourth).

What to conclude

Statistics are statistics and they can be embraced or ignored at the wish of the recipient. However, when they underlying numbers so strongly suggest certain things, we can imply that over time the scorelines will begin to reflect this.

That’s not to say that Milan will go on an amazing winning run that will see them dust off the likes of Liverpool, Inter, Bayer Leverkusen and Fiorentina – far from it. If anything, it confirms the need for more control being required in games, to tilt the balance in open play more in their favour.

However, it certainly isn’t all doom and gloom. Just like as the games suggested, if Milan had taken the big chances they created to go ahead against Torino and ahead against Parma it produces much easier game situations to manage because there is no need to chase things.

What the chart shows is that three games is a small sample size, and yes this can mean that the Diavolo’s numbers decline while Torino and Udinese’s correct themselves based on league position, but it is more likely to go the other way. Results, though, are the only currency that count.