The speculation surrounding who will be AC Milan’s next starting striker has run parallel to the rumours about who will take over as the new head coach, but those two discussions are about to converge.
The manager merry-go-round seems to have reached its final rotation, and Milan are about to get off, at least for now. It has been a tedious season, filled with suggestions about the Rossoneri’s stance on Stefano Pioli’s position and his successor, and now it is reaching its conclusion.
As reports suggest, the maangement are now set on Paulo Fonseca after an extensive evaluation process, and they will look to confirm him as the next coach shortly. However, there are no guarantees about when this will be yet, even if reports suggest an announcement could come next week.
Multiple sources are claiming that Fonseca is expected to sign a two-year deal with Milan worth €2.5m net per season. Additionally, Milan will have the option of another year on his contract and this would come with a pay increase.
They are handing over the keys of the project to an interesting coach, one that does not seem to unite the fanbase with excitement. One of the issue that will be talked about and probably already is concerns the striker that will arrive to take the baton from Olivier Giroud.
With reports circulating suggesting that Jonathan David is not the kind of mould Fonseca wants, that Joshua Zirkzee isn’t considered a pure striker, that Benjamin Sesko is too expensive and that Serhou Guirassy is simply a one-season wonder, it leaves the question no closer to being answered.
Who might the incoming coach want? The best course of action is often to look back at the past and see what has worked well and not as well for the 51-year-old, in his 17-year managerial career to this point.
From Braga to Donetsk
The first glimpses of success came with Braga, the club with which Fonseca obtained his second title as coach: the 2015-16 Portuguese Cup, which came after the Super Cup triumph with Porto (three years earlier).
That year Fonseca finished fourth in the season, but among the positive notes of the season was the alchemy created in attack, with Nikola Stojiljkovic and Ahmed Hassan reaching double figures as both hit 10 goals each.
The pair were rotated quite effectively throughout the season and there is a detail that immediately stands out: both are over 6ft (the Serbian stands at 6ft1, the Egyptian at 6ft3) and have rather imposing physiques.
Of course the type of striker used can be conditioned by the situation, for example Braga at that time were more suited to going direct, yet when the two options available are similar traditional target man it gives us a first solid example.
Moving to Ukraine, the next name on the list is Facundo Ferreyra, the spearhead of Fonseca’s Shakhtar with whom he won two league titles, two national cups and a Super Cup from 2016 to 2018. The Argentine experienced the golden period of his career.
Translated into numbers: 16 goals in 28 games in the first year, 30 in 42 in the second. Not bad statistics, considering the balance created with quality wingers like the Brazilians Marlos and Taison. In that Shakhtar side he was used as a No.9 with the task of roaming and creating space.
Ferreyra – currently at Tigre in Mexico – stood at 6ft1 but he was not very good in aerial duels. Instead, he was a link-up forward that dropped in deep to allow the wingers to push on, and he created space by dragging a defender with him
In the 2018-19 season, Fonseca’s last in Ukraine, Junior Moraes was the man leading the line after Ferreyra’s transfer to Benfica. Almost identical results followed: a league cup double, with 26 goals (and 12 assists) in 39 games. He also won the Golden Boot in the Ukrainian Premier League.
How did he play? TFA summarised the role of the 5ft9 Brazilian well: “He rarely leaves his position and ensures that there’s always some kind of depth in Shakhtar’s game. The 33-year-old is not so much involved in combinations but waits for the right moment to put the ball into the net or lay it off for his Brazilian mates.”
When in Rome
If in Ukraine Fonseca always proposed the 4-2-3-1, the move to Roma opened up other opportunities. In Italy the Portuguese initially used the same formation, then often playing with a three-man defence.
An analysis of his Giallorossi experience focuses primarily on Edin Dzeko. The Bosnian made the difference especially during the first season (2019-20), with 19 goals and 14 assists, decreasing in terms of numbers in the following one (13 goals and 5 assists).
That year, it is worth mentioning the exploits of Borja Mayoral, who started as an alternative and became almost a starter along the way, due to the unforeseen circumstances of his Bosnian team-mate.
From Covid to muscle problems, in addition to some sparks of disagreement with Fonseca, Mayoral found himself being relied on more and more towards the end of the season and he repaid the faith of his coach.
Having arrived in the capital in October 2020 on loan from Real Madrid, the Spaniard was rekindled by Fonseca following his spell at Levante and in his first season in Italy he amassed 17 goals and seven assists in 45 games.
If Dzeko was the prototypical old fashioned striker that the coach had leaned upon during his time at Braga, Mayoral provided something a bit different and is perhaps more comparable in characteristics to Luka Jovic, if looking at someone in the current Milan squad.
Richard Martin of UEFA.com described Mayoral as ‘an unapologetic scavenger’ while Zinedine Zidane complimented the current Getafe man, describing him as ‘a striker who scores every time he has a shot’.
Mayoral followed the mould of some of the Shakhtar forwards with his penchant for dropping deep to receive the ball and connecting the midfield while bringing the wingers into play, but most of all he was deadly inside the area.
The most recent example
Then we come to Jonathan David, who has been linked with a move to Milan for what feels like the last two or three years. The peculiarity is that the Canadian attracted the Rossoneri’s attention because of what Fonseca was able to get out of him in the last two years.
A tally of 52 goals across the two seasons – 26 per season – speaks volumes. The reasons can be found in the philosophy of the coach, who a few months ago explained his principles to The Athletic.
“It’s important to make people understand our style of play. Here people quickly understood what we were trying to do. When everyone believes in it, most of the time they don’t think about mistakes. Players take risks without being afraid of making mistakes,” he said.
Fonseca focused on the Canadian, someone that he saw great potential in above all for his technique and athleticism, and David repaid this faith with heavy goals and good performances.
As a cornerstone of his 4-2-3-1 (or 4-3-3), David was used as a No.9 with license to roam, often dropping down to the midfield line to give the team a hand in the build-up phase and causing confusion for the opposition’s centre-backs.
Not only that: his presence in the area was an added value in finishing some of the good play produced by Lille on the flanks. Standing at 5ft9 and slender in size, the former Gent star falls more into the ‘false nine’ category, yet Fonseca made it work.
What do we take from all of the names above? In truth, it shows us that Milan’s incoming coach has worked with a variety of strikers and in a variety of systems. He is capable of making them the focal point of the formation, or ensuring the strengths of his side are elsewhere and can be facilitated by the centre-forward.
Rafael Leao, Christian Pulisic, Samuel Chukwueze, Tijjani Reijnders, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and others all have a vested interest in who dons the famous No.9, but there is a reassuring theme: Fonseca’s strikers tend to score, and plenty.