AC Milan and Rafael Leão are at a critical juncture that could redefine the club’s future and the career trajectory of its prized player.
When Milan signed Leão from LOSC Lille in 2019 for a substantial €35m (which has since risen to €49.5m due to the payment of the fine to Sporting CP), they invested in raw talent with the potential to explode.
Traditionally cautious with big-money transfers, Milan bet on Leão’s promise, opting for patience over immediate results. This patience paid off over time, with Leão developing into Milan’s primary attacking threat and playing a pivotal role in their 2022 Scudetto win.
Arriving as a 20-year-old from France, Leão has matured into a lethal force in Serie A, delivering impressive performances and breaking records, such as scoring the fastest goal in Serie A history against Sassuolo on December 21, 2020, and being named Serie A MVP in 2022.
Over the last five seasons, Leão has made 113 goal contributions in 221 games, averaging 0.68 goal contributions per 90 minutes – a remarkable feat for any forward.
However, the 25-year-old winger seems to have hit a plateau. Despite steady goal contributions – 26 in the 2021-22 season, 31 in 2022-23, and 29 in 2023-24 – Leão has yet to establish himself among the global elite.
His growth has levelled off, and glaring flaws in his game persist, particularly in terms of finishing. While his pace remains a nightmare for defenders, his accuracy in the final pass and precision in front of goal still lag behind those of world-class wingers.
Leão has only twice reached double digits in league goals across his Milan tenure, with inconsistency and occasional poor decision-making halting his evolution into a well-rounded forward.
To complicate matters, Leão’s relationship with new head coach Paulo Fonseca has become tense. Brought in this summer after the departure of Stefano Pioli, Fonseca’s arrival at Milan has been turbulent, marked by a poor start with five losses and two draws in twelve games.
Although a tactical masterclass against Inter momentarily restored hope, Fonseca’s position remains precarious. Tasked with elevating Milan’s squad, Fonseca has yet to find stability, despite a transfer window that reportedly saw him secure his preferred signings, such as the contentious acquisition of Emerson Royal.
Fonseca’s demand for greater discipline from Leão, both on and off the ball, has led to friction. Recently, Christian Pulisic, Milan’s other winger, has shown a stark contrast to Leão’s performance.
The American’s meteoric rise this season includes seven goals compared to Leão’s single tally. As Leão has struggled with inconsistency, going over two months without a league goal, he has found himself benched.
These events have led to a possible impasse: Milan must decide whether to persevere with Leão or consider moving on. For Leão, being sidelined could fuel a desire for a new start, particularly if he is relegated to a rotation role.
Milan, on the other hand, must evaluate if Leão still aligns with their long-term vision. The option to cash in on him is tempting, as his market value remains high despite recent struggles.
The Rossoneri could use these funds to bolster other areas of the squad, potentially increasing the overall quality of the team. Yet, approving the sale of Leão carries its share of risks.
Europe is brimming with talented left-wingers, making the task of replacing him far less challenging than it may have otherwise been. However, questions about the management’s ability to carry out this task effectively loom large.
Fonseca’s mixed track record and the controversial decisions of the current management cast doubt on their ability to handle any windfall from a Leão sale wisely. The recruitment of players such as Emerson Royal has already attracted scrutiny, raising concerns that funds from Leão’s sale could be squandered on unproven or declining talent.
For Milan’s management, this crossroads with Leão is also a moment of accountability. By replacing Pioli with Fonseca, they took a calculated risk. However, if Fonseca’s tenure does not improve, parting ways with both him and Leão could be seen as a double admission of error—a scenario the management would likely want to avoid.
If Milan decide to retain Leão, there are additional factors to consider. Fonseca would need to find a way to reintegrate him effectively into the team, maximizing his potential while addressing his developmental gaps.
Leão would have to accept the challenge of rising to Fonseca’s demands, improving his consistency and off-the-ball contributions. On the other hand, if Milan choose to cash in on Leão, they must have a clear plan to reinvest those funds wisely.
The revenue from his sale could create an opportunity to strengthen multiple positions, provided the management can avoid the pitfalls of further underwhelming signings.
The unexpected, morale-boosting win against Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday night could transform the team’s fortunes. Or, it could turn out to be another red herring. Only time will tell.
However, this impressive victory over the Spanish giants – driven by Leão’s stand-out performance and Fonseca’s tactical adjustments – suggests that both player and coach may have a higher ceiling than recent results have shown.
Although Leão’s scoring drought continues, he was a constant threat on the pitch, achieving the third-highest xA (expected assists) of the night and delivering a well-timed assist for Tijjani Reijnders’ goal. Both the club and fans will be looking for more of this from Leão, and hoping that he will find his scoring boots soon.
Nevertheless, at this pivotal juncture, the club’s choices will have lasting impacts. Leão’s future at Milan may hinge not only on his performances but on the direction Fonseca takes with his system and Milan’s patience with his methods. For Leão, a fresh start elsewhere might provide the environment he needs to refine his skills and aim for elite status.
Milan, meanwhile, would have to either recommit to Leão with renewed faith or accept that their future may benefit more from diversifying their strength rather than banking on a single star. These crossroads will determine not just Rafael Leão’s fate but AC Milan’s fortunes in the coming years.
Agreed. Finally a balanced article on Leão, which while highlighting his real shortcomings, did acknowledge this most important factor: “Over the last five seasons, Leão has made 113 goal contributions in 221 games, averaging 0.68 goal contributions per 90 minutes – a remarkable feat for any forward.”
However, the article still makes it sound like THIS season, Leão didn’t do much more than scoring ONE goal. While it is true that Leão has scored only one this season so far, it can’t be overlooked that in this same period, despite fewer minutes played, and despite a dip in form, Leão has still made 6 assists (5 for Milan and 1 for Portugal).
See, an assist is as good as a goal scored. When you set up a companion for an easy tap in, that’s a goal, regardless of you having scored the goal, or your companion having tapped in a goal that ultimately, you created yourself.
So while the beginning of the article did acknowledge Leão’s outstanding goal contributions of 0.68 per 90 minutes, the article failed to highlight his 6 assists even in a season when he is not doing so well and has played fewer minutes, and this total of goal participations remains remarkable and second only to Pulisic’s.
Sure, he needs more consistency, but he also has CONSISTENTLY achieved a total of goal contributions in the order of magnitude of 30, in all 3 of the last 3 seasons, and I’m prepared to bet that he will get there this season too, by season end.
I totally agree with you leao is one of the best players we have at milan despite having some difficult times,he needs support from all of us surrounding him and he will deliver for us.
I truly hope the Madrid game was the relaunch of Leao. He was great and also contributed defensively. This is the Leao we need. If he can do this consistently he will be a star. Cagliari will be the next test. I’m expecting him to get the the start. Let’s see which Leao shows up.
-If he can do this consistently-
Seems like we been saying this for years, a?
Did you somehow miss the total of goal contributions Rafa has made every season over the last 3 seasons, which this article did highlight??? That’s a form of consistency, isn’t it? We know that you didn’t miss it (even you should have some bit of reading comprehension, as limited as yours is); you just chose to conveniently ignore it because it doesn’t fit your distorted view of Leao.
While I agree that Rafa does need game to game consistency, he is still consistently providing a high number of goal participations by season end.
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The key is expectations. Rafa has the talent to be superstar. (Like a vinny, Mbappe, Rodri, KDB, perhaps Kane when he was a bit younger etc) . Superstars have an off game every once in a while, not every other game.
Rafa has done amazing, but his talent level calls for more and ppl kind of expect it.
Sure, but I’d invite you to lower your expectations, and I will explain why.
Vini, Mbappé, Rodri… whoa. Leão is not at their level and likely will never be. Which, not many posters here realize (ACM1899 is one of the few who does), it’s actually to our benefit. If Leão were truly at the level of the players you’ve quoted, he simply wouldn’t be playing for us. He’d be playing for the likes of Real, PSG, ManCity, Bayern, Liverpool… that is, for much wealthier teams. They’d have snatched him even before he got to Milan. They’d have signed him from Sporting or from Lille. Or even if their scouts had missed him there, they’d have snatched him from us, later, with no trouble paying his release clause, or they’d wait for the expiration of the clause and would offer a bit less but still a very significant amount that our management would accept.
The only reason Rafa plays for AC Milan, a mid-income team that can’t afford too many of the truly world-class players, is because he is very good, very talented, but not any close to perfection, and not really world-class (and probably never will be). So, his true value is way inferior to his release clause, which discourages pursuers.
Leão has significant shortcomings: he is very lousy at defending, he rarely tracks back, and his finishing is much less than ideal. But then, he does add a large number of goal participations per season (about 30).
If he were as good as you’d hope and at the level of the players you’ve quoted, we wouldn’t be enjoying his about 30 goal participations per season because he’d be gone, and we would be worse off without him.
It’s as simple as that.
So, I’m happy that Rafa plays for us, warts and all, and all Milan fans should be, instead of complaining of his shortcomings.
Do you think we’d have won the Scudetto without him? No, we wouldn’t. Do you think we’d have defeated Real Madrid without him? No, we wouldn’t.
So, let’s just be happy that we have him.
And then, think of this: let’s say Leão shines a bit more and some richer club snatches him. Do you actually think that RedBird would then invest the money into purchasing a suitable left winger who would also add about 30 goal participations per season? No, they would not. They are cheap. They don’t want to spend any more than 20 to 25 M Euro per player that they sign.
We’d get some lousy Joe Nobody as his replacement, someone who would add 2 goals and 2 assists per season, because the people who can add 30 typically cost a lot more than 20 to 25 M.
Fonseca deserves all the praise in the world for the Madrid match, and I am the first one to compliment him. Brilliant checkmate to Ancelotti.
But it must be said that Leao, as good as he was, seemed sluggish and out of form several times in the match. In particular, several times his famous dribbles ended with the ball slipping away from his feet. Can’t help but think this is at least partially due to his recent role as a bench player.
Leao needs to be the first guy in attack, and the one who does the least amount of defense. That’s just the type of player he is. Nobody needs to take it personally.
Leao blueprint is straightforward. He wears his heart on his sleeve and needs to feel the support instead of the benching. The carrot and the stick doesn’t work on him. If Fonseca adopts more of a fatherly approach to Leao, he might deliver more and rediscover his ways.
I know I sound like a broken player, but Fonseca needs to double down on his strengths and mitigate his weaknesses. But Leao too needs to show accountability and maturation.
I dunno. The benching seems to have worked, since he was benched 3 games in a row before Madrid, and then he torched them.
He torches them because the open spaces TO torch them were there. Leao needs the space to attack. Against the teams that sit deep he isn’t as effective, unless he’s hitting on a counter.
HERE WE GO AGAIN LUIGI . LEAO …. BLAH….BLAH…BLAH …. WE are good with leao and just hope he remains consistent. Thats it ! You don’t have to go on and on and on … YOU SHOULD JUST MOVE ON !!!
I totally agree with you leao is one of the best players we have at milan despite having some difficult times,he needs support from all of us surrounding him and he will deliver for us.
Guess every ac Milan fan should write a love letter ( appreciation letter *) to leao ala luigi style and after our superstar is showered with these letters ( physical letter none of the email shìt) he will raise his lvl so high it will make other lw look like kids playing in a sandbox.
Assuming he reads them. Would take a minute to read millions of letters