We’re a few days on from AC Milan’s draw against Juventus and, unfortunately, it feels like a defeat for some. However, is that just a bit too much?
Drawing in the manner in which Milan did is never pleasant. No one took joy from seeing Federico Gatti meet the ball in the air only to find the back of the net. However, had that not happened, we’d be talking about an excellent game plan playing out.
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Football, however much you want to suggest otherwise, is a game of ifs, buts and maybes. As fans, we all live and die by them. What if Paolo Maldini wasn’t fired? What if Sandro Tonali didn’t leave? Heck, we can even go back to Marco van Basten; what if injuries didn’t ruin his career?
You can continue for as long or as short as you want. The point is that football is fickle – not that there’s an issue with that – but sometimes it’s these what-ifs that spark something more. That’s the aim here.
Why the numbers lie…
When you look at the numbers from the Juventus game, they’re pretty horrible. The Rossoneri appointed Ruben Amorim to play beautiful, attacking football. So, why did they look like a side fielded by Massimiliano Allegri on Sunday?
Well, it’s situational.
Since 2010, how many games have the Diavolo won at the Allianz in Serie A? The answer is four in 18 meetings. Two were 3-0 victories, the other two were 1-0 wins. How many points do you get for a 0-3 win? How many points do you get for a 0-1 win?
The point to make is that until those final minutes, Amorim’s side were on track for a fifth Rossoneri win in 16 years in Turin and how many managers have tried? How many ‘better performances’ have ended with the same result or worse?
For those who watched last night’s Champions League games – and we’re sorry to draw this comparison – Inter probably deserved more than a 2-1 defeat. However, lapses in concentration cost them two goals. On another day, without those errors, they probably would have won that game.
Elite football is about being solid in the right moments and managers/coaches have very little ability to alter them. Of course, you can minimise them, or try to. However, this is where situational awareness comes into it.
Juventus had to win that game as much as Milan did; they were always going to be the dominant force after Alphadjo Cisse’s goal. So, why not set yourself up for that as best as possible? Well, Amorim did that.
His team soaked up pressure excellently and only allowed 0.72 xG from then until the full-time whistle. The hosts were relentless in their attacks, but their chances lacked quality until the set-piece at the end.
Their average xG per attempt on goal after Cissé’s opener was 0.12. We’re not talking about Amorim’s leaky defence, but a fantastic defensive display that fell apart because of a last-minute set-piece. It’s a lapse in concentration after almost 30 minutes of non-stop defending.
What is also worth considering is Mario Gila’s removal from the pitch. With him on the pitch, the Rossoneri haven’t conceded; would the same stat still have been in place with him on the pitch for those final minutes, especially with the cross coming from the right side of the box…
You see what we mean by football is a game of ifs?
Differing performances
The aim of this isn’t to defend a disappointing result, but rather the performance.
Most would agree that watching Milan last season became more of a challenge than something to enjoy. Even during the unbeaten run, would you flock to watch games with excitement? The answer – if we’re being brutally honest – is probably not. Even those games felt like a challenge.
So, when the going got tough, it was a case of ‘it’s game day again *sigh*’, rather than excitement. Now, having a new manager definitely changes things, but we doubt that the same reaction was had before the Venezia clash.
Sunday’s trip to the Allianz deserves to be discounted a little bit, because as already stated, the game is historically a slog. Yet, the Diavolo grabbed a result and showed a different side to themselves. That’s what the focus must be.
Amorim and the Scudetto formula
In his three competitive games so far this season, Amorim has shown an ability to give Milan a different face. Now, the stats would tell you that this weekend’s draw was more Allegri-esque than anything seen under the coach last season.
However, the three games would suggest the opposite. A coach who can react to games, both before them and during them.
During games, his changes have brought four goals – a goal and an assist for Adrien Rabiot, an assist from Alexis Saelemaekers, then an assist from Samuel Chukwueze for Cisse – he’s called the professor for a reason.
However, his entire game plan changed in a week, despite him not previously working that style with the team. They went from an aggressive, front-foot team to a defensive team in the space of a week. Over the season, how many times did Allegri’s side change face, or was it an ‘Allegri team’ throughout?
Amorim has already warned fans that the road to being successful will be tough and difficult at times; this is one of those cases. Unfortunately, the reaction has been the one that most feared: suggestions that the Portuguese’s appointment was already the wrong one.
Yet, it shows something a lot different to what we’ve seen in recent years. A coach willing to change his style, even if it wasn’t 100% successful.
We’ll leave it with one thing: Amorim’s Milan got a draw at the Allianz. Will that decide the Scudetto? Statistically, it says probably not. In the past five years, only one Scudetto winner has won at the Allianz – Napoli in 2022/23, when Juventus recorded their lowest points tally since 2010/11. With football becoming increasingly scientific, we’d exclude that game on account of it being an anomaly.
Inter last season lost 4-3, Napoli the season before drew 0-0, Inter in 2023/24 drew 1-1, then the Scudetto winners from 2021/22 drew 1-1; sounds familiar…
In other words, it’s too early to give up hope on Amorim because the statistics might tell you to. The eye test may say the same, but how many chances was Allegri given when his football looked no better last season?
Amorim didn’t defend the result, nor did he defend the style of play. Milan have a coach who is not afraid to change his style and not afraid to admit fault. It wasn’t pretty, but it never was going to be at the Allianz; let’s not forget that.
History tells us that a draw at the Allianz is still Scudetto-worthy… so what’s the need to tear down two fantastic results because of one lapse in concentration?
Still very early for this article
Stones, *T. Santos, Hjulmand, **Grimaldo, Liberali/Zaniolo, Icardi;
You are like a young girl writing the names of her crushes in her notebook
That’s very rich coming from you, cardinale’s fanboy.
The glass is not half full.
The glass is twice as large as it needs to be.
We are three weeks in to the season. New coach. New system. New management (sort of). New players. World cup summer. Maybe the answer is, let’s talk about it again at the international break?
Please and please leave amorim for now is 2 early,my believe is that he we take us 2 better place if Mila management is ready 2 support him with what he wants,I believe Mila we do well the season,go and write it down
Stop writing Mila, what’s wrong with you?
Still trying to Cut Pulisic down for that Penalty miss, with that Picture. Even, After tomori and the whole team fought him, and wanted him to miss.
It’s not even half a season yet, plus the squad hasn’t finished rebuilding
There is too much panic regarding the result with Juventus. I am actually baffled how MOST commentators and journalists actually expected a victory AWAY against Juventus on round three. In truth, both sides are actually fine with the draw since both sides need momentum to build up fitness and such and be prepared for the Europa League. This is why Moreira started, even though it was obvious he was not ready yet. This is why Rabiot is still used as an AM. Important Milan players, like Gila or Modric, can’t finish a 90 min game as of yet. For me, Milan was solid in defense. Gatti’s goal was expected since Spalleti chose to go all-in against Milan. Heck, even before Gatti was introduced Juventus already had a 4-2-4 formation with both Woltemade and Muani in front, increasing the height average of the team. Under that pressure and without Gila, conceding a goal on Allianz was more than expected. Let’s not forget that to some degree Juventus was the better team. They had better chances, however for me that was nothing strange since they did play on home ground. The positive aspect that we should focus on however, is that Milan was able to take the lead against Juventus in Turin. In fact, in those 10 minutes in which Milan had control we actually did see some more of Amorim’s vision than his “Allegri” side. As for the “Scudetto pace’, we need to remember that last season Inter SUCKED against AC Milan and Napoli, they traded points with Juventus, but did overpower AS Roma and Como, which seem to be hard nuts to crack for Milan this season too.
To some degree? They were obviously way better than us. Another thing, why wouldn’t we expect
a win there? They have so many players injured, among other things.
Thank you for speaking some sense here @Andrei
But we might loose champions league spot by 1point not even 2. Attacking wise, Juventus was much better than us and it’s their finishing that’s not upto the mark
I don’t know how anyone can watch this team and not think they’re lucky to be where they are.
Reality is, there’s still a long way to go to bring the club back to it’s best. The italian league might be easy to get a hold of, but what happens in Europe (i mean champions league, nothing else)? Let’s hope the vision comes to fruition. Patience is key.
I guess nobody on this site watched Amorim’s dreadful performance at Manchester United last year with a more talented team!!!