A win against Liverpool and luck needed – Milan’s road to the UCL knockout stages

By Isak Möller -

Thanks to their win against Atletico Madrid in the last round, AC Milan remain alive in the Champions League and will play for the knockout stages on Tuesday evening, taking Liverpool. So, how can they advance?

It’s certainly a tough task for Milan, there is no doubt about it, and not many would have thought that qualification was even possible after the Porto games. It could have earned you a chunk on betting, for which a list of online sportsbooks could have come in handy.

Currently on 4 points along with Atletico Madrid, they could snatch second place with a win against Liverpool in the final round. However, Milan also depend on the game between Porto and Atletico Madrid to end in a draw or a win for the latter, but there is one asterisk to that option.

The standings are as follows right now (via UEFA): 1) Liverpool, 15 points, +10GD. 2) Porto, 5 points, -5GD. 3) Milan, 4 points, -2GD. 4) Atletico Madrid, -3GD.

Usually, when two teams are on the same amount of points, it’s settled by looking at the H2H between the two. However, since Milan and Atletico Madrid have one win each and exactly the same goal difference, the overall goal difference comes into action.

Milan have -2 as things stand, while Atleti have -3. Porto has an even worse overall goal difference but they have H2H advantage over the Rossoneri, which means the Portuguese side would go through if they finish on the same amount of points.

As said, Milan thus need the game between Porto and Atletico Madrid to finish in a draw. They could also go through if it ends in a win for Atleti, but only if the winning margin is the same as for them (most likely). For example, Milan beat Liverpool 2-1 and Atleti beat Porto 1-0.

In that scenario, if Atleti win by 2-0 instead, they would be level on overall goal difference and it would move over to most goals scored in the group. Atleti are currently at 4 goals scored, while Milan are at 5. In that scenario, therefore, Milan would go through with 7 goals vs. 6 goals scored.

If, on the other hand, Milan win just 1-0 in that scenario, then it would move over to most away goals scored. Atleti will be ahead of the Rossoneri in that category as long as they score two against Porto (currently 3 vs. 2 in favour of Milan).

Having said this, it’s all very speculative at this point and it’s easier to go by that Milan need to win and the other game must end in a draw or a win with the same margin for Atleti.

*Data per UEFA. 

READ MORE: Milan could collect over €12m with a win against Liverpool – all the figures

Tags AC Milan Atletico Madrid Champions League Liverpool
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