Finish line almost here: Remaining games for Serie A’s top four competitors compared

The finish line is in sight for AC Milan, who could realistically clinch a Champions League return within the next fortnight.

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It is very rare that you get a dull season with Milan, and although 2025-26 hasn’t quite matched the last campaign in terms of the extreme highs (beating Real Madrid at the Bernabeu) and gut-wrenching lows (having two head coaches, the cooling break saga, UCL exit to Feyenoord and a Coppa Italia final defeat), it has still been a roller coaster.

For example, the narrative surrounding the team has been polarising. After clinching a derby double on March 8 there was talk of a renewed Scudetto push, but then a couple of weeks later it felt as though even a top four spot might crumble away.

It has been an admittedly difficult recent run for Milan, who have won just two of their last six and have failed to score in three of their last four games. Yet, the recent stalemate with Juventus – coupled with the gap already built – means that the main aim for the season is now within reach.

Six more points

To mathematically qualify for top four, Milan need six points out of a possible 12, and that is presuming that the chasing pack take all available points. If they finish level on points with Roma or Como, the Rossoneri will be ahead in their head-to-head record, hence the need for a 50% quota.

The next matches will see the Diavolo face Sassuolo (away), Atalanta (home), Genoa (away) and Cagliari (home). Simply put, it is very much in the hands of Massimiliano Allegri and his team, who are in a great position compared to the one it looked like they might be a few weeks ago.

Looking at the calendars of the other top four rivals, Napoli will play Como at the weekend in round 35 in a game that will tell us a lot about the direction of both teams. If Cesc Fabregas’ side win at home they could really reopen things, but a triumph for Antonio Conte’s men might seal Napoli’s spot inside and Como’s outside.

The Partenopei will then face Bologna at home (9th in the table), Pisa away (20th) and Udinese (11th) to round off the season. With Napoli only needing four more points, they should secure Champions League without too much of a fuss.

Juventus meanwhile are in a position where they too must make use of their three-point cushion over fifth. Verona at home (19th), Lecce away (17th), Fiorentina at home (15th) and Torino away (13th) is not too challenging a finale on paper. However, there is the added dynamic of Lecce being in a survival battle, and a derby to finish the season.

After Napoli, Como have Verona away, Parma at home (12th) and Cremonese away (18th) to end 2025-26. It feels like it all comes down to the aforementioned game against the Neapolitans for them, though a Lombardy derby in the final round versus a Cremonese side currently one point from safety is tasty.

Finally, there is Roma who are currently sixth but level with Como on 61 points. Fiorentina at home is followed by Parma away (12th), the derby against Lazio 98th) and Verona away to conclude the campaign. The derby feels big, but the Giallorossi must back themselves to win at least three.

This isn’t a particularly exciting take, but it feels as though the most likely scenario – on the balance of the remaining games – is that things stay as they are with regards to the top four spots. The beauty, though, is that football is not played on paper.

Milan must do their jobs in all of this and get to the magic six-point marker quickly. Failure to beat Sassuolo would put added pressure on Atalanta and the two games after that, especially given the shortcomings exposed against bottom-half teams and with the attack struggling.