Milan to win or draw: Lazio fixture unpredictability hints at potential outcome

Estupinan Lazio-Milan record

Photo by Paolo Bruno/Getty Images

AC Milan will be up against Lazio at the Stadio Olimpico on Sunday evening, and it’s a fixture in which there has been no clear favourite for quite some time. 


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After the win against Inter in the derby, it’s clear that Milan need to clinch another three points against Lazio to build some momentum, while continuing to put pressure on the Nerazzurri. Having said that, tomorrow’s fixture is by no means easy.

Massimiliano Allegri and Maurizio Sarri both stated in their respective press conference, first the Milan gaffer and then the Lazio boss, that the tactical battle is difficult to get right. Of course, given the experience of the managers, that’s exactly what you would expect.

Seven games without the same outcome

Beyond the managers, however, the fixture also comes with some historical baggage. Going back to the 2019-20 season, if we look at the games played between the two teams at Stadio Olimpico, there hasn’t been the same outcome two times in a row a single time.

Lazio won 3-0 in 2019-20, Milan won 0-3 in 2020-21, Milan won 1-2 in 2021-22, Lazio won 4-0 in 2022-23, Milan won 0-1 in 2023-24, the teams drew 2-2 in 2024-25, and Lazio won 1-0 in the Coppa Italia clash earlier this season.

In short, seven games without the same outcome being repeated. If that trend were to continue tomorrow, then the game will end in a draw or a win for Milan. However, the point is that there never seems to be a clear favourite heading into this fixture.

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