For AC Milan to dream and achieve what they want to they need the best version of Rafael Leao, something that has not been seen enough this season.
Calciomercato.com talk about the ‘great expectations’ that have been placed on Leao, ones that are impossible not to have one especially when talking about a player of his class and quality, but also because of the renewal which made him the highest-paid player in the squad.
In an interview with Sky, the winger said: “We want to try to win something important this year. World-class level? I think so, I’m working hard and I’ve done well in recent years, we also won and we want to do it again.”
The Rossoneri’s inconsistency this season has been evident, something that the various injuries that occurred do not help. There is still time to salvage the campaign, but the opportunities are gradually reducing as they did on Wednesday night in the Coppa Italia exit.
What is equally clear is that the performance of Pioli’s team (and vice versa) was also affected by its main player Leao, who was given a rich five-year contract worth €7m net per season including bonuses.
Leao has been incredible at times this season, but only in flashes and the data shows it. He amassed 16 goals and 15 assists across all competitions last season to six goaals and six assists so far this season.
Looking at Serie A alone as a reference, his average has risen from a goal every 162 minutes last year (one goal every approximately two games) to the current goal every 384 minutes, therefore one every more than four games.
The xG numer (Expected Goals) dropped drastically to 2.65 compared to 10.86 in 2022-23, just as the xA (Expected Assists) saw a drop from 6.19 to 4.14.
Going into more detail, Leao went from shooting 2.6 times per match to just 2, he saw the conversion of goal chances drop from 16% to 9% and the opportunities created from 16 to 9.
Lastly, from beating his man once every two dribbles, his success rate in getting past an opponent has dropped to 47%. All this data demonstrates a decline, but we are halfway through the season it must be said.
The latest matches, especially in the cup, have provided positive signals: he has two goals and one assist in the last three games. His qualities, now, must shine once and for all, to drag Milan out of this crisis of results and performances.
What better occasion than a big match like the one against Roma? In the first round, it was one of his sensational goals that led the Rossoneri to a success in the capital, so the fixture against Giallorossi is the perfect chance to demonstrate what he can do.
Not only that, but he must end a drought of goals in the league that has been going on since 23 September, when he netted the goal that beat Verona at San Siro. Three and a half months later, the Portuguese needs to rekindle his spark in Serie A.
