In the last few days, the headlines surrounding AC Milan have been dominated by discussions about Rafael Leao’s present and future.
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In case you missed the post-Lazio controversy, Leao expressed anger that Christian Pulisic didn’t pass to him on the field, which then continued when Massimiliano Allegri brought him off shortly after. It has since been resolved with an apology, yet doubts still remain about the Portuguese.
Leao: Help or hinderance?
One thing is certain: Leao was placed at the centre of the project by the incoming coach Massimiliano Allegri, who decided from very early on in preseason that he wanted to use a 3-5-2 and that the former Lille man would partner Pulisic up top.
Sunday evening’s loss against Lazio was perhaps emblematic of where things are at. Due to a variety of different factors – with the main one being limited time together due to injuries – the front two just hasn’t clicked.
Corriere dello Sport (via MilanPress) have also presented some numbers which seem to underline that Leao is no longer so essential for the Rossoneri. This season he has scored 10 goals, his personal best at this point in the season, but he has a lot fewer assists than in the past.
With Leao on the pitch, the Rossoneri have generated 1.70 xG (Expected Goals) per game so far, compared to 2.16 xG without him. It must be noted Rafa has missed seven games against lower-quality opponents: Cremonese, Lecce, Bologna, Udinese, Verona, Bologna and Parma.
The same goes for xGA (Expected Goals Against): with Leao, Milan concede an average of 1.32 xGA, while without him, they concede just 0.45. It is another huge difference, but again the opposition is key, as is Allegri’s approach in the various games.
The statistic is supported by another key bit of data: with Leao on the pitch, Milan have conceded 11.82 shots per game, and without him it is 8. It suggests that the Diavolo are more unbalanced when he is present and perhaps have less tendency to press in an organised way.
Leao is effectively a ‘high-variance asset’, which means that he is a player who amplifies both opportunities and risks. Allegri knows this well, and he accepted the task early in the season, one he isn’t giving up on.
Then, there is another question: if you take Leao’s ten goals out of the picture, who steps up to fill the void? Milan’s forwards have ranged from inconsistent to non-existent all season, and the midfield hasn’t provided the output Allegri wanted either. So, it is a complicated picture to digest.