AC Milan have a very low chance of emerging on top in the Scudetto race, according to a calculation by Opta.
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The OptaPredictor (via MilanNews) has published its data regarding how the season finale will go. They have Inter at a 89.48% chance of winning the Scudetto, while Milan (6.16%) and Napoli (4.19%) have a remote possibility in their eyes.
Milan are estimated to finish on 77.58 points, which rounded up would be 78, a whole 15 ahead of 2024-25. The chances of Massimiliano Allegri’s side making the top four currently stands at 98.06% so is almost certain. Europa League is at 1.65%, and Conference League at 0.28%.
Even with the 1-1 draw against Fiorentina on Sunday, Inter remain six points ahead of Milan in second. Not only that, but the Rossoneri will travel to Naples in the Easter Monday game at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, so a draw could see the Nerazzurri gain two points on both.
There are still eight games to go in the Serie A season with 24 points up for grabs, and even the most unlikely outcomes – even from a mathematical standpoint – are possible. The most absurd of all, and completely unprecedented, would be for three teams to end up on equal points.
A Scudetto play-off would be needed, but one team must be eliminated and it would go to a head-to-head record between the teams involved. Milan lead the mini-table with nine points, while Napoli have four points and Inter one. So, the title play-off would be at San Siro between the Rossoneri and the Partenopei.