AC Milan find themselves one point off top spot after 10 games, and this is making some fans dream about a possible title charge.
As La Gazzetta dello Sport (seen below) write this morning, not having European competitions is a significant advantage for Milan over the teams around them, one that Napoli were able to draw upon last season under Antonio Conte.
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Speaking of which, Milan have beaten Napoli, Roma and Bologna this season and have drawn away from home against Atalanta and Juventus. Their only defeat – in the opening match against Cremonese – might have been a blessing. So, can Milan dream?
Why yes
The first reason is simple: Luka Modric. He arrived from Real Madrid and took up a new position (as a Regista) in a new league, one that Milan can dedicate themselves entirely to, with the offshoots of the Coppa Italia and Supercoppa Italiana to manage.
Modric is like Calhanoglu for Inter and Lobotka for Napoli. He is a player that Juve lacks: someone who receives a pass under pressure, maintains creative possession, calms his team-mates and anticipates the play like a chess master.
Modric increases the collective output and leads one of the richest defenses in Serie A, with the attacking Rabiot, plus Fofana, Ricci and Jashari who can play as box to box players, plus the somewhat forgotten Loftus-Cheek. No one has so many options.
The second reason is Massimiliano Allegri and his work. Milan needed to restructure the defence, and he seems to have succeeded by playing a deeper defensive line and compacting the space between the departments.
He’s still lacking in attack because, even if we risk being proven wrong, Leao’s central position can only be temporary. However, Leao is responding with decisive plays, less fuss and more pragmatism.
Allegri, perhaps sometimes questionable in his attacking strategy, knows how to manage a Scudetto-winning team and is able to reassure a talent from whom, once and for all, no one can expect the continuity of Fofana.
The third reason is actually a game coming up. The Diavolo know how to react and react, and are practical, as we saw against Roma. They don’t score in bursts, but they have the fourth-best attack in the league and the third-best defence, with Maignan back in top form.
We’re halfway through the first round and there are only two high-ranking opponents left to play before the midway point: Inter and Como. The derby, after the break, will tell us much more about the ambitions of Milan.
Why no
There are many positive signs boosting the atmosphere, but it’s best not to forget that Inter and Napoli are superior to all the other contenders in terms of their experience and their squads, which have the depth to compete in Europe.
Milan’s big problem is the attack. The power of the four Nerazzurri strikers (Lautaro, Thuram, Esposito, and Bonny) guarantees Chivu goals, even with rotation. Napoli have some physical issues, but Hojlund (at times explosive), Lucca (inconsistent) and Lukaku (when he returns) reassure Conte.
Allegri, however, is unable to solve the Gimenez conundrum, devastating for Feyenoord but absent for Milan. He has not gotten Nkunku to click yet, someone who was lethal in front of goal for Leipzig. Neither have scored a league goal yet, and despite Leao and Pulisic’s form, this isn’t enough.
The second doubt is about the system. Where does Leao perform best? Milan’s problem, so to speak, is that to maintain a three-man midfield and defend with three central defenders, Allegri resorts to his beloved 3-5-2.
This penalises the most important player (along with Modric partly) in Leao, who is better roaming out wide. The goal against Roma came from the left. Sooner or later, a decision will have to be made on whether to persist with the current system, or evolve into a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1.
Finally, there is Milan’s squad depth, or lack thereof. Psychologically, Milan must become more resourceful: they conceded big chances against Atalanta and Roma, which opponents will not always miss. Furthermore, the abundance of the midfield isn’t matched by the same wealth in other areas.
Tomori, Gabbia and Pavlovic are the starting centre-backs with only De Winter as a reserve. Saelemaekers is doing a great job, but Bartesaghi is a teenager, Estupinan is injury-prone and Athekame is raw and other second string players aren’t convincing.
Up front, too, there are no alternatives. In January, the squad will need to be bolstered with defenders and midfielders, expenses that are investments if the Champions League is to be reached.
So far we have been a little flattered by the table as everyone is dropping points which has kept us near the top.
It is also reasonable to say we have been quite lucky in recent games where we struggled v Fiorentina/Pisa/Atalanta/Roma
In the first half v Roma they had 11 shots and if they had any capacity to finish, we would have been a couple of goals down by the break.
If we are to challenge for the title we cannot be crying about missing 2 starters (Rabiot, Pulisic) in the positions we have most depth.
The squad has been built with confusion once again, where we sold our wingbacks and bought fullbacks only to play with wingbacks.
We also can’t ignore the loss of goals and assists from Theo/Tiji which have not been replaced.
If we shift to 3 upfront, what happens to Salaemakers? One of the bright spots in the team
At this point we need at minimum a CB a wingback and a striker. Positions we were well covered in.
At some point management need to stop wasting money on random attackers and purchase a proper centre forward, this has gone on for years and we would have saved money by now if we just went big on 1 good player.
It’s nice to be in the hunt for now, but we are also only 3 points form 6th. So top 4 is still going to be a challenge.
With the lack of squad depth and lack of goals we will struggle to keep pace with the top long term
Bro, silence is golden for a reason.
Great comment
Well said.
Ultimately, ‘Scudetto worthy’ means nothing anyway. That’s decided at the end, not after 10 games.
It’s good that we’re not far off the top but we’re also only separated from those below by a few points. We’ve kept pace, nothing more.
All it means is there’s 28 games to decide the end table now instead of 38.
Crucially, we’ve managed to address some of last year’s issues and have a better platform to build from, but a couple of key injuries could play us right out of it.
The fact we have only lost 1 game is important because teams that win rarely lose more than 4 games.
Our rivals, like Inter have lost 3 already.
It’s been a strange start to the season, as you say it’s almost like starting the league again at game 11
I’m not saying that your initial comments about the team’s “luck” is wrong, because they’re not. However, the opposite of your comments is also true: the other teams in the table are close to or leading Milan because Milan has dropped points. The loss to Cremonese and the draw with Pisa were unacceptable. The draw with Atalanta should been a win.
You’re correct about the first 30 minutes of the Roma game, but we also had trouble finishing. That includes at least 4 point blank misses. It goes both ways.
As for the injuries, it’s not just Pulisic and Rabiot that they’re missing. At one time, they were missing six players who either started or contributed significant minutes to the team. They went undefeated during that span including road games with Juvi and Atalanta. That’s a great achievement.
So while your comments are correct, the counter points are also true. I don’t believe the situation is dire. We’re actually in pretty good shape.
You make very fair points Joe.
We are in a position to challenge.
No doubt with players back things will improve.
But imagine we lost salaemakers or Gabbia or Pavlovic, we really don’t have much cover and as every year there will be injuries and suspensions.
The coach and sporting director have both admitted we are a bit short in depth.
We have a huge advantage having no European football, over the likes of Napoli and Inter who in my opinion will be fighting for the title.
We should also always have an eye to next season as that is how to build. I think we will need to blood some youth players as next summer we will have a large budget deficit that will need plugging and as always that will be through sales. So it will be very challenging to increase our squad size for european comps while also balancing the books.
I’d imagine it’s most likely to be a couple of Pavlovic/Alexis/Pulisic/Leao, not sure we have anyone else we can profit from to fill that gap