The Champions League race in Serie A will conclude tonight, and for AC Milan, a win would definitely secure qualification for the competition. However, a draw might also be enough.
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Milan bounced back at just the right time with their win against Genoa last weekend. Not only did it serve as a much-needed confidence boost ahead of the final round, but it also set them up nicely in the Champions League race.
They are currently level on points with Roma (70 points), while Como and Juventus are a bit behind (68). As such, they have everything in their own hands, but making sure you are up to date with the different scenarios is never a bad thing.
How Milan can clinch Champions League
Let’s start by saying the obvious. For things to get interesting tonight, one of Como and Juventus need to win, otherwise it doesn’t matter how it goes for Milan and Roma. Equally, if the Rossoneri and the Giallorossi get their jobs done, then the positions will remain as they are now.
Now, with that out of the way, Milan could still qualify for the big competition with a draw tonight. Gazzetta dello Sport included a very good image this morning, showing how the league standings would look if three or four teams were to finish on 71 points.
As you can see in the image above, Milan would finish in the top four in all of those scenarios, which is thanks to their record in the H2H games. Just to be extra clear, taking the first scenario as an example, that would happen if Milan and Roma both draw, while Juve and Como both win.
The second scenario, meanwhile, would happen if Milan and Roma both draw, while Como win and Juventus draw/lose. It’s only in the last scenario in the image that Milan could get in trouble, as Roma winning would see them finish fifth.
Those are not the only scenarios in which a draw would be enough, though. Let’s say Roma and Como win, while Juventus only get a draw. Then Milan and Como would be on the same points, but thanks to the H2H advantage, the Rossoneri would finish above.
Swapping Como for Juventus, on the other hand, would see Milan drop out of the top four as the H2H record is equal between the two (0-0 in the first leg, then 0-0 again in the reverse leg). Goal difference would thus decide it all, putting the Bianconeri ahead (+27 vs. +19).
Of course, the goal should just be to win the game tonight, but it’s nice to know that there are some fallbacks.