Just before 23:00 CEST on Sunday night, AC Milan will finally know if they have secured a place in the next edition of the Champions League.
The results of the last round mean that there are two places left, given that Inter and Napoli are already certain to participate in next year’s top European club competition. Four teams are vying for the last two spots available.
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Milan (70 points), Roma (70 points), Como (68 points) and Juventus (68 points) are in the race going into the last day. The Rossoneri and Giallorossi hold their fate in their own hands, as both teams will only need to beat Cagliari and Hellas Verona respectively to secure third and fourth place.
With four clubs still in contention and only one match remaining, there’s a real possibility that two or more teams could finish level on points. At that point, head-to-head records and even mini-leagues could come into play, as MilanNews relay.
How Milan will qualify
The easiest way for Milan to take care of business of course is to beat Cagliari, who secured their Serie A status for another season with a win over Torino in the last round.
If the Rossoneri draw, though, what are the various head-to-head permutations?
🆚 Tie on points with Roma: Milan advantage.
🆚 Tie on points with Roma: Milan advantage.
🆚 Tie on points with Juventus: Juventus advantage.
🔢 Milan, Roma, Juventus level = 1. Juventus, 2. Milan, 3. Roma.
🔢 Milan, Como, Juventus level = 1. Como, 2. Milan, 3. Juventus.
⚖️ All four teams level = 1. Milan, 2. Como, 3. Juventus, 4. Roma.
So, if Milan draw, they qualify for the Champions League under the following conditions:
➤ If Roma lose, regardless of the result of Como and Juventus [3rd place if Como and Juventus don’t win; 3rd if only Como win; 4th if only Juventus win; 4th if both win].
➤ If Roma draw, regardless of the result of Como and Juventus [3rd place if they are level with Roma and Como or if four teams finish on 71 points; 4th if they finish level with Juventus and Roma].
➤ If Roma win and Como and Juventus do not win [4th place].
➤ If Roma win, Como win and Juventus do not win [4th place].
If Milan lose, they qualify for the Champions League under the following conditions:
➤ If Roma, Como and Juventus all lose [3rd place].
➤ If Roma lose and only one of Como or Juventus win [4th place].
➤ If Roma draw/win and Como and Juventus don’t win [4th place].
The most important thing is to win
To quote Herm Edwards, “You play to win the game.” It’ll be interesting to see what that means with ACM.
It means parking the bus from the first minute, even against relegation battlers, and hope to nick a goal on a “counter” or opposition mistake. Then full panic mode if the opposition scores first. When in possession, but not losing, pass to Leao so he can make a run into double coverage so he can get dispossessed. If Leao isn’t on the pitch, make bad passes that result in broken plays.
Just WIN regardless the score line and the performance.
Hell yeah only need a draw! Park the bus!
Nope. If Roma win their on 73. If ACM draw their on 71. If Juve win it’s 71 for both. Head to head two draws. Juve win on goal differential. So, parking the bus as you say is risky if Juve and Roma win. Also, the chance of an odd goal deciding CL is a risk.