Rafael Leao failed to end his Serie A goal drought during the draw against Bologna on Saturday night, and the stats show that he is not shooting anywhere near as much.
La Gazzetta dello Sport recall that Leao’s last league goal dates back to 23 September against Verona at San Siro, before a long fast that has seen him net against Cagliari and Atalanta in the Coppa Italia plus PSG Champions League.
The performance against PSG was decisive, the performance was one of the best of his career, but in Serie A the number of days without a goal rose to 128. Fourteen games, 1012 minutes.
There are two roads. On the one hand there is Pioli. Before the match against Bologna he spoke of Leao as a ball artist, a genius, someone who despite abstinence works for the team and produces assists, creates numerical superiority.
On the other hand, however, there are the numbers. The Portuguese finally had a shot on target after almost three months without one in Serie A during the Bologna game: he hadn’t had one since Napoli-Milan on 29 October before that.
After a quarter of an hour he aimed at the man, ran down the flank as he knows how to do and unloaded a left-footed shot that Skorupski parried away.
Sofascore data shows that in the last 12 matches, Leao has shot 15 times. Nine of those shots went high over the crossbar. He provided two assists, but the goalscoring crisis is evident, masked by a good performance from the whole team.
Milan have not lost in the league since December 9th, almost two months. From there they amassed five wins and two draws (including one against Salernitana). They conceded seven goals, but scored 17.
Pioli boasts the second-best attack in Serie A with 43 goals scores and the eighth-best defence in the league with 25 goals conceded. If you consider the xG conceded, Milan are the tenth-worst rearguard with 39 xG.
If we talk about dribbling and quality plays that lead to goal-scoring action, Leao is always at the top of Serie A. He is currently sixth for successful one-on-ones – ahead of him are Soulé, Kvaratskhelia, Banda, Laurientè and Ebosele.
The former Lille man first for big chances together with Kostic, eighth for key passes, 11th for fouls conceded and third for successful dribbles per game (1.50). The assist count is also excellent at six for the season, with three chances created per game.
When he gets closer to the goal, however, the data drops: Leao has an average of 0.25 shots on target per game, which is among the lowest if we talk about attacking wingers in Serie A.
His Expected Goals are around 1.25. He is certainly a new Leao, more mature if we talk about team play and winning touches, but less performing in terms of goals.
Each passing game increases the weight on the shoulders of a boy who smiles as he runs. The title of his book says a lot about him. It’s called ‘Smile’ – Rafa can’t wait to show it again in Serie A too.
