Rafael Leao failed to end his Serie A goal drought during the draw against Bologna on Saturday night, and the stats show that he is not shooting anywhere near as much.
La Gazzetta dello Sport recall that Leao’s last league goal dates back to 23 September against Verona at San Siro, before a long fast that has seen him net against Cagliari and Atalanta in the Coppa Italia plus PSG Champions League.
The performance against PSG was decisive, the performance was one of the best of his career, but in Serie A the number of days without a goal rose to 128. Fourteen games, 1012 minutes.
There are two roads. On the one hand there is Pioli. Before the match against Bologna he spoke of Leao as a ball artist, a genius, someone who despite abstinence works for the team and produces assists, creates numerical superiority.
On the other hand, however, there are the numbers. The Portuguese finally had a shot on target after almost three months without one in Serie A during the Bologna game: he hadn’t had one since Napoli-Milan on 29 October before that.
After a quarter of an hour he aimed at the man, ran down the flank as he knows how to do and unloaded a left-footed shot that Skorupski parried away.
Sofascore data shows that in the last 12 matches, Leao has shot 15 times. Nine of those shots went high over the crossbar. He provided two assists, but the goalscoring crisis is evident, masked by a good performance from the whole team.
Milan have not lost in the league since December 9th, almost two months. From there they amassed five wins and two draws (including one against Salernitana). They conceded seven goals, but scored 17.
Pioli boasts the second-best attack in Serie A with 43 goals scores and the eighth-best defence in the league with 25 goals conceded. If you consider the xG conceded, Milan are the tenth-worst rearguard with 39 xG.
If we talk about dribbling and quality plays that lead to goal-scoring action, Leao is always at the top of Serie A. He is currently sixth for successful one-on-ones – ahead of him are Soulé, Kvaratskhelia, Banda, Laurientè and Ebosele.
The former Lille man first for big chances together with Kostic, eighth for key passes, 11th for fouls conceded and third for successful dribbles per game (1.50). The assist count is also excellent at six for the season, with three chances created per game.
When he gets closer to the goal, however, the data drops: Leao has an average of 0.25 shots on target per game, which is among the lowest if we talk about attacking wingers in Serie A.
His Expected Goals are around 1.25. He is certainly a new Leao, more mature if we talk about team play and winning touches, but less performing in terms of goals.
Each passing game increases the weight on the shoulders of a boy who smiles as he runs. The title of his book says a lot about him. It’s called ‘Smile’ – Rafa can’t wait to show it again in Serie A too.
Though I am not a massive fan of his, the way Serie A defences have clamped down on him have certainly impacted his productivity. He is often facing 2 or 3 defenders when he receives the ball. The trouble is that he contributes so little in all other aspects of the game that if he is not contributing to goals, he is actually a hindrance to the team. Hopefully he can refine his passing and figure out a way of dealing with multiple defenders.
Conte will transform him in a right wingback. He’d have a lot of space to run forward, if Conte can only make him run back too.
He’s getting figured out more. He’s getting double, triple teamed sometimes and when he makes the run to the box defense is aware he’s gonna try to pass the ball back in.
If he wants to continue to be a protagonist, he’s gonna have to change his game a bit. Maybe cut inside more on his runs and improve his shooting.
Personal metrics aside though, he’s creating more space for others around the box because of everything above. So while he isn’t scoring, he’s helping others get in better positions and have chances on goal. Like RLC’s chances last game.
This is what frustrates me the most I think. He created SO much space and we haven’t figured out a way tactically to exploit it?!
This example is one of many reasons I’m not a fan of Pioli.
Problem is, we can’t push all the midfielders up to attack the spaces because we get caught in transition. Our mids don’t penetrate enough through the middle, so we just meddle side to side. And we don’t have a defensive enough mid to make a difference in a two-man pivot on the counter…
So…. what you see is what you get so far. That’s just a personel/tactical lineup mismatch. But Pioli won’t try to reinvent the wheel with 6mos left. SO we’ll stay in third.
“SO we’ll stay in third.”
IF we’re lucky…
With his status in the team & the amount he’s been paid, he’s definitely not doing enough.
I know he isn’t the most intelligent footballer & he’s being double teamed & sometimes even triple teamed on but anytime I watch him, I always shake my head. Shooting is so bad you’d think he doesn’t do shooting practice at all in training. His passing is worse, atrocious! Hardly ever involved in gameplay. Maybe it’s Pioli system idk. Watch him for Portugal, it’s pretty much the same. Not surprised he hasn’t nailed down a starting berth despite obviously being the most talented of the bunch in his position.
Heck, if anyone is willing to pay his full release clause, we’d be idiotic to refuse.
It’s like he’s been figured out. People know what he’s going to do now and he has no other plan, but besides that, he has just had bad dribbles, bad runs and over all bad decision making. It’s like ever since that injury he is not the same, can barely beat his opponent for pace anymore. The number 10 curse?
It’s just that he gets double or triple teamed when we hold the ball and since we play on possession and rarely go on the transition he doesn’t have the space to operate.
The frustrating thing is that Pioli’s system rarely utilises the space left behind the players closing him down.