Italy may not be heading to North America for this summer’s FIFA Men’s World Cup, but a host of AC Milan players will still be there to represent their home countries.
While all will be dreaming of lifting the Jules Rimet trophy at the final on 19th July, the truth is that only the French contingent of Mike Maignan and Adrien Rabiot have a realistic chance. The rest of Milan‘s World Cup players all represent nations with an outside shot at best of winning the tournament.
Read SempreMilan ad-free and get access to exclusive news. Click here for a free trial!
This doesn’t mean that there aren’t ways to back these less-favoured teams in their games, though. There are two bets which are designed to lower the risk when taking the underdog: draw no bet and double chance.
You can read a full breakdown of the maths behind how the exact odds for a draw no bet in soccer betting are calculated at Action Network, the most trusted source for sports betting insights and analytics.
Alternatively, below are easy-to-understand explainers for how draw no bet and double chance bets work.
Draw no bet
In normal match result betting, there are three outcomes to back: the home team to win, the away team to win, or a draw. A draw no bet wager, sometimes called a ‘tie no bet’ in certain markets, works by removing the option of the draw.
This means the only options for the match result are wins for either team. The attraction of this kind of wager is that if the match ends in a draw, the bet is pushed and your stake is returned as cash.
For instance, Luka Modrić’s Croatia side are major underdogs for their first group match against England. However, Croatia have a good record against England, and Milan’s midfield maestro could lead them to another upset. If you wagered €10 on Croatia to win, but they fall just short and the match ends in a draw, your €10 stake would be returned in cash.
These bets are a great way to back an underdog, but give the safety net of being pushed if the match ends in a draw. The downside, though, is that the odds offer less value than using the traditional three-outcome market.
It’s important to note that all draw no bet wagers only count for the regular ninety minutes plus injury time. If you backed one of Modrić’s games in the knockout stages as a draw no bet, and the match went to extra time, it would still settle as a draw even if Croatia eventually came out on top.
Double chance
A double chance bet is another way of improving coverage when backing an underdog, only this time by offering more options for the outcome. There are three choices in a double chance market: taking the home team and the draw, the away team and the draw, or for either team to win outright.
For instance, Rafael Leão’s Portugal have a tough final group game against Colombia. As good as Portugal are, the team is far from certain to win. The double chance outcomes here would be Portugal and the draw, Colombia and the draw, or for either Portugal or Colombia to win.
Therefore, you could lower your risk exposure slightly by taking Portugal and the draw.
Like with a draw no bet wager, a double chance offers less value than using the traditional match result market. However, it also provides better coverage, and makes backing a result more appealing if you think it’ll be close.
It also is settled at full-time, regardless of whether the game goes to extra time or penalties. This means that a bet on Portugal or Colombia to win would lose if the game was a draw at full-time, and one of the sides was to score a winner in extra time.
