AC Milan moved onto nine points in the Champions League standings last night with a win over Slovan Bratislava, and a simulation has worked out potential outcomes.
La Gazzetta dello Sport cite Opta calculations, which include more than 50,000 different simulations, in determining what Milan need in order to finish in different brackets of the new ‘league’ phase of the competitions.
By winning the remaining three games against Red Star, Girona and Dinamo Zagreb, one of the top eight places is guaranteed. Getting to 18 points in total means accessing the last 16 without any play-offs needed.
Even with sixteen points (so two wins and a draw to finish) it is almost guaranteed at 98%. Dropping to fifteen points (two wins and a defeat) we enter the world of ifs and buts: the percentage drops to 73%, and there goal difference could become big.
With the current nine points the Rossoneri already have a 69% chance of reaching the play-off stage. At 12 points they would be certain of playing a two-legged tie to get into the last 16.
But the Diavolo’s goal, at this point, is obviously at least eighth place. As per further calculations, it would bring in a total of around €31m in performance bonuses alone.
I dont quite understand how these things work from a financial pov. Are the top 8 teams being compensated for playing less games? (I can only as.sume so). Otherwise it would better to be in the 9-24 teams especially if you know you’re not going to make a huge run in the competition. As you’ll receive the matchday revenues that go with the extra games. Wouldn’t it then be better to be 9-24 if you’re a bigger club and know u can dispatch a smaller team 🤷♂️. Maybe I have that wrong but that top 8 has to receive way more money than the rest like at least 5-10m more.
U sound like we should focus on money than resting our players. If we get into the top 8 our players are rested and we might even get a favorable draw. While we don’t play 2 games we can also shift the focus to the league. A serious run in the champions league and the serie A would make sure that our players know we are contenders and might even attract other players
You’re new here lol 😅 I’m definitely not focused on money. Way more on the sporting side. I was just curious.
Better position on table generate more money, and winning more games, bring 2,1 million per win.
So better position, more wins equal more money than 1 extra home game in 1/16 of finals.
Yes that’s sounds about right. But remember a big club can easily geneate 5-10 mil. on a single matchday. I’m pretty sure there’s a number cruncher at the club looking at if it’s better to be 9-24 than top 8. At top 8 UEFA has to compensate me for the lost matchday. I’m curious to see how much the 1-8 clubs do get.
It’s not about playing fewer games. The €31M payment would be for making it to the knockout rounds.
If someone knows more than I do, and I’m incorrect, please correct me, but I’m pretty certain all 16 teams that qualify for the final 16 will receive the same €31M, so it doesn’t matter if we are top 8 or win a 9-24 playoff.
That said, of course we would want to make the top 8 and avoid the playoffs, since that eliminates the chance of losing a playoff, and it means two fewer matches we have to play and a couple of weeks where we only have one match instead of two.
Best regards
I think we’re getting ahead of ourselves. We have 3 more games that on paper are easy, but since when do we have it easy against “lesser” teams? We just almost blew it and almost drew 3-3 with the very last UCL team (would have been a draw if not for Pavlovic’s heroic goal line save) so we can’t really be sure that we’ll win our last three games. We seem to always play down to the competition and play much worse against the small teams than against the big ones.
I frankly don’t think we’ll make top 8. Regardless of our current table position, look at what teams are ahead of us:
Inter
Barcelona
Liverpool
Atalanta
Leverkusen
Arsenal
Dortmund
Bayern
Aston Villa
Atletico Madrid
and a few others (Monaco, Sporting, and Brest).
All 10 that I listed above (not even considering the less impressive 3 that are still ahead of us) are theoretically better than we are so to get to top 8 we’d have to dislodge 3 of them (and the 3 lesser ones).
Also, below us but still very much on board to leapfrog us, are Manchester City,, Juventus, and Real Madrid. Lille are also decent.
I figure that there are 14 teams that are very competitive, most more than we are, fighting with us for 8 spots. So we would be the 15h one on that list. 8 will make it, 7 will not. Somehow given our up-and-down season and inability to comfortably beat smaller teams, I think it is unlikely that we’ll be among the 8 that will make it, instead of the 7 that will not. And we can arguably even talk about the 10 that will not given that there are still 3 additional teams that are less impressive but still, are ahead of us.
Call me pessimistic if you will. I call myself a realist.
And don’t even start with “you’re not a real Milan fan; you don’t support the team.” Of course I am and I do. I’ll be delighted if we make the top 8. I just rationally think it’s less likely than not making it.
I understand what you are saying. When you look at that list it seems unrealistic to think we can just slide straight up above all those teams.
But I guess the point is, mathematically they can’t all get 9 points in the remaining games.
If we do get 9 points (which we should) then it should comfortably be enough to reach the top 8.
Most of those teams will have a significantly tougher run home. Like our first 4 games was.
” I just rationally think it’s less likely than not making it.”
They literally did all the calculations for you and gave you the percentages and you still don’t want to accept it. That is not rational at all.
“By winning the remaining three games against Red Star, Girona and Dinamo Zagreb, one of the top eight places is guaranteed. ”
“Even with sixteen points (so two wins and a draw to finish) it is almost guaranteed at 98%. Dropping to fifteen points (two wins and a defeat) we enter the world of ifs and buts: the percentage drops to 73%, and there goal difference could become big.”
So our chances are good. Even if we lose one of the games still a 73% chance of making it.
I see that disappoints you because you like to go around screaming how awful the team is, but we are in a good position in Champions League.
You see our first 4 matches were our most difficult matches. For some of the teams above us their first 4 matches were the easiest and they have harder games coming up. Also some of the teams that are currently ahead of us have to play each other, so its guaranteed that they are going to drop points. Barcelona has to play Dortmund, Benefica and Atalanta, Inter has to play Leverkusen and Monaco, Monaco has to also play Arsenal, Atletico has to play Leverkusen. Lille has to play Liverpool.
So a bunch of those teams ahead of us are guaranteed to drop points. Of course anything can happen but the odds are in our favor right now. It’s ok to be positive about it.
Bro relax, If we will win our remaining 3 matches still we could end up at no. 9 on goal difference to Bayern and atletti at same points. While outta 13 teams you mentioned
Atlanta, Leverkusen, Villa, Monaco, Brest have less chances than Milan, while lille and benfica are also above us now but they will destined to loose atleast two points
Atlanta( Real madrid, sturm graz, Barcelona(A))
Leverkusen( Inter, Atletico(A), Sparta)
VIlla(Liepzig(A), Monaco(A), Celtic)
Monaco(Arsenal(A), Villa, Inter(A))
Brest( PSV, Shakhtar(A), Real madrid)
lille( Sturm graz, Liverpool(A), Feyenoord)
Benfica( Bologna, Barcelona, Juventus(A))
we have favourable draw ahead and hope for all Milan’s wins and atletico vs leverkusen ended at draw then we will be in top 8
To me 17 or 18 points looking insufficient and that AI is giving % on 15 or 16 points that’s all are crap
OK, but see, just today, our next opponents Red Star beat Sttutgart 5-1. So maybe they won’t be that easy to beat.
Forza Milan, I hope we make it. But it will be a lot harder than this article is suggesting.
See the thing is that people who don’t like the Milan team are the people who will underrate the team, it’s uncalled for?
At least for once appreciate the job of the coach and encourage him with your comments to do better, rather than castigating the coach and the team at once and the funny 🤣 aspect is that these people who play down 👇 coaches and teams, doesn’t even know the pressure that the coach faces when he’s doing his job, it’s just too bad and these same sect of people if they are given the same job of the coach knows absolutely next to nothing about coaching, haa!
Be considerate for once, if you think it’s easy then go ahead and take over the job of the gaffer.
Just because this coach, this management and half of the players on the payroll are trash doesn’t mean we don’t support the team.
Majority of us, who are most vocal critics here watch every match and follow news around this club daily. And been doing so for decades.
We’re just not sugarcoating and shy away from evident problems.
Exactly. When the whistle blows I’m the biggest cheerleader for all players, rooting for Chuk to score or assist, rooting for RLC to bully his way in midfield, hoping Deers split the defence etc. The an.alysis / critique of the team is separate from the support of the team and many people can’t wrap their heads around that.
And as you mentioned there are ppl here who seen football for decades, so when certain decisions are made it’s very easy to tell what’s going to happen. That adds to the frustration. But the love and support will forever be there.
Sorry Ted. When your comment on every article, even after the team wins, is “the management, the coach and half the players are trash,” you are not supporting the team. You are just an angry person who comes here to vent. It’s not even like you make any kind of intelligent critique, no it’s just everybody is trash. Tell me how that is supporting the team at all.
You are not alone , there are many like you on here. Look no further than this article here. You have an article clearly saying that we are in very good position to advance in the Champions League and 90% of the comments are negative , people choosing not to believe and outright denying mathematical facts just so they can sh!t on the team and the coach a little more. These are not people who are hoping for this team to succeed.
Like my friend IKWYDLS, his favorite thing is to come in here and say “I told you so.” So he would rather see the team fail so he can come in here and say it, than he would like to see them succeed and have to admit he was wrong.
By the way IKWYDLS, I missed you at the beginning of the season when you weren’t posting on here. Did they take away your computer privileges over there at Arkham Asylum?
Well, definitely not 98%.
There are games between
Atletico – Leverkusen,
Real – Atlanta,
Inter – Leverkusen
Villa – Leipzig,
Barcelona – Atlanta,
Dortmund – Barcelona,
Probable scenario –
Bayern and Arsenal win all 3 (easy) games,
Dortmund win 2 other games (without Barcelona)
make her above us anyway,
our only hope is to take the place of Leverkusen or Atlanta,
if Leverkusen ties Inter and Atletico or win one game – they will be above us.
then if Atlanta draws one game against Real/Barcelona they are above us.
In conclusion, even if we win all the games left,
we need Leverkusen to lose 1 game or draw 2 games, or Atlanta to lose 1 game or draw twice
and after all that we need Villa to lose 1 game or draw 1 game, and then we need to score 4 goals without conceding.
In conclusion to the In conclusion – we probably won’t be top 8 even if we win all 3 games.
Best case scenario –
Draw between Atletico – Leverkusen,
Draw between Villa – Monaco
Let’s not count our chickens before they hatch guys!
There’s a long time between now and when those games are played. Our form can change, our team can change and even our coach can change. So bear that in mind.
The level of stupidity on this site is shocking. They literally ran every possible scenario and if Milan win their 3 games it is “guaranteed” they finish top 8. That means it is a mathematical fact. And facts are facts, it doesn’t matter whether you understand it or believe it. I’ll trust their computer over you doing the math in your head. 😆