As a result of two draws and one loss in the opening three games, AC Milan are facing an uphill battle in the Champions League group stage. However, it’s far from over for the Rossoneri, who will need at least two wins from the final three games.
The draws against Newcastle and Borussia Dortmund, especially the first one, were indeed frustrating and could prove costly in the end. Losing away at PSG was more or less expected, but the return leg is now less than one week away. It remains to be seen what the response will be.
Taking a look at the standings in Group F, also labelled as the ‘group of the death’, it’s clear that Milan have some work to do in the final three rounds.
➤ Paris Saint-Germain: 6 points
➤ Borussia Dortmund: 4 points
➤ Newcastle: 4 points
➤ AC Milan: 2 points
Essentially, the Rossoneri need to win at least two of the remaining three games to have a chance of reaching the knockout stages. Three wins would see them through for sure, as they would reach 11 points while Dortmund and Newcastle only would be able to reach 10. PSG, meanwhile, would be able to reach 12.
Claiming all three wins is very unlikely, though, and the following is more realistic: a draw against PSG at San Siro, a win against Dortmund at San Siro and a win against Newcastle in the final round at St. James’ Park.
Milan would then have to depend on the results of Dortmund-Newcastle, PSG-Newcastle and Dortmund-PSG. Essentially, the Rossoneri would need both Dortmund and Newcastle to drop points at least once. The maximum they could reach then would be eight points, while the Rossoneri would be at nine.
Winning two and losing one (the one against PSG) would also be enough for Milan in that same scenario, taking them to eight points. It would then come down to head-to-head points, based on which they would prevail (four points against both Dortmund and Newcastle). The group could look as follows:
➤ Paris Saint-Germain: 11 points (3W, 2D, 1L)
➤ AC Milan: 8 points (2W, 2D, 2L)
➤ Borussia Dortmund: 8 points (2W, 2D, 2L)
➤ Newcastle: 4 points (1W, 1D, 4L)
Of course, all of the above is based on Milan beating Dortmund and Newcastle. The situation would be different in the event of a win against PSG and a loss against Dortmund, for example, which is why it’s best to wait until after the next round before breaking down all the various combinations.
