The Scudetto race could be wrapped up as early as Sunday, with the Derby della Madonnina perhaps being the most important one for some time.
When the final whistle was blown in the reverse fixture in November, it was the Milan players who got to celebrate thanks to an odd-goal win. It meant they went second in Serie A, a point ahead of the Nerazzurri.
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Plenty has changed since then, with Inter establishing a ten-point lead at the top of the table while also advancing in the Coppa Italia. In short, Cristian Chivu is on course for a double in his first season in charge of the Milan rivals.
Speaking to Casinos.com, a portal that lets players discover the best PayPal casinos and biggest football sportsbooks, a Milan supporter highlighted the importance of the game: “It’s one we have to win. Allegri will know the importance because if not, the title is basically done.”
Kick-off is set for Sunday, with Inter arriving in dominant form both in the standings and with their recent results (in the league, at least). However, Milan’s hard work and attacking threats mean the title race isn’t over just yet, even if the odds are stacked heavily against them.
Inter have one hand on the Scudetto
If not dealt with properly, this could easily become the weekend that the 2025-26 title winners are decided in Serie A.
With a win against Milan, there will surely be no stopping Inter. The shock elimination from the Champions League has only fueled the desire to win the domestic double, and that hunger has been evident in their league performances.
Chivu’s men are ten points clear of the Rossoneri and haven’t lost a Serie A match since the last time these two sides met in November. They look full of confidence home or away, grinding out results when they’re not at their best and dominating when they hit top gear.
That consistency usually separates champions from contenders, and Inter have shown it all season. Federico Dimarco is the man to watch. As the league’s top assist provider with 14 of them, he’s boasting a remarkable 71 big-chance creations, making him a vital especially on set-pieces.
The only other defender to record as many goal involvements in a single Serie A season since it expanded to 20 teams in 2004 was former Milan player Massimo Oddo while he was at Lazio in 2005-06, with seven goals and 13 assists. And it’s not just because his teammates are finishing well.
Dimarco has earned his assists. The Italian has created at least 19 more chances than anyone else in Serie A this season, whichunderlines his importance to Inter’s attacking play.
Three points or nothing for Milan
Milan now have no room for errors. Draws have drained their title push far more than defeats. Indeed, they have just two losses all season, but nine stalemates compared to Inter’s single draw is where the gap has opened. Those 18 dropped points have made a huge difference.
They managed to avoid a 10th draw in the final minutes against Cremonese, thanks to Strahinja Pavlovic’s header, but the performance wasn’t great. It also came after the defeat to Parma, which was another big blow to the Scudetto pursuit.
Milan simply haven’t been able to turn tight matches their way often enough, so now beating Inter is the only way to keep even a faint hope alive.
They managed it in November through Pulisic’s goal and Maignan’s penalty save. Furthermore, the recent derby record has been good, with four wins in the last six (2 draws). That offers some comfort, but recent form suggests Inter are much better now than earlier in the season.
Even so, a win for the Rossoneri would still leave a seven-point gap with ten games to go. Milan would thus need a flawless run after that, most likely anyway.
No doubts about the favourites
While the derby is a game of its own, and usually ends up being tight, the numbers speak in Inter’s favour. They have the highest probability of taking all three points, winning around 42% of simulated outcomes.
Milan’s ability to raise their level in big matches keeps this game competitive, but Inter’s consistency and recent form make them favourites, leaving Allegri with work to do.
A draw would suit Inter just fine, keeping the ten-point gap intact with a cruising finale to go. Meanwhile, Milan need the win desperately and that desperation could lead to mistakes. In short, they have to be spot on to win it.
