AC Milan made it three wins on the trot in the Champions League for the first time since 2007 when they beat Slovan Bratislava 3-2 away from home.
Milan took the lead when Christian Pulisic went through on goal and converted Tammy Abraham’s through ball, but they conceded moments later and the two sides went in level at the break.
Rafael Leao came off the bench to restore the advantage for the Rossoneri, then Abraham got a goal of his own and looked like he had wrapped things up. The hosts responded again to make it a nervy finish even after a red card.
What it means for Milan
The end result though was three more points that continue the path towards direct qualification for the last 16 stage, though the same worrying narratives about a lack of defensive resilience remain.
As we picked out in our post-match stats piece, the numbers make for interesting reading after an open contest. The problem is that – barring the Real Madrid game – the Diavolo have not been convincing in anything they’ve done in Europe so far this season.
Opta calculations – which include more than 50,000 different simulations – have determined what Milan are likely to need in order to finish in different brackets of the new ‘league’ phase of the competitions.
By winning the remaining three games against Red Star, Girona and Dinamo Zagreb, one of the top eight places is guaranteed. Getting to 18 points in total means accessing the last 16 without any play-off needed.
Even with 16 points (which would mean a win and two draws) the top eight is almost guaranteed at 98%. Dropping to 15 points (two wins and a defeat) the percentage drops to 73%, with goal difference becoming a factor then.
With the current nine points the Rossoneri already have a 69% chance of reaching the play-off stage. At 12 points they would be certain of playing a two-legged tie to get into the last 16.
Milan’s target at this point is obviously at least a top eight spot. As per further calculations, it would bring in a total of around €31m in performance bonuses alone.
Streaming the Champions League
As revealed by ExpressVPN, the UEFA Champions League was the most streamed event of 2024 (so far…) and the social media activity was also off the charts; content created around key games generated approximately 3.3 billion interactions!
This is no surprise to us as we know from talking to AC Milan fans that they are streaming matches more and more frequently. Sometimes it’s via their phones at bus stops and sometimes it’s in their bedrooms because their families have taken control of the TV in the living room.
Whichever way people are streaming these days, one thing is undeniable – a secure connection via a VPN is good news.
The next opponents
Milan welcome Red Star to the San Siro on Wednesday night hoping to secure three of the points they need to push towards the top of the table.
However, they will face a side that are in quite simply ridiculous form. They have won 16 of their 17 league games so far this season (drawing the other). Red Star have scored 55 goals and allowed nine, sitting 15 points ahead of their rivals Partizan in second.
In the Champions League they have naturally found things more difficult, having been hammered by Inter and Barcelona already. Yet, in the last round they put five goals past VfB Stuttgart in what was a memorable European night.
The main men have been Cherif Ndiaye (nine goals, one assist in the league), Luka Ilic (five goals, two assists) and Bruno Duarte (the same as Ilic).
The side from the Serbian capital have had 16 different goal scorers in the league alone though, which shows just how spread their attacking threat is under head coach Vladan Milojević.
