On Saturday, 25 May, AC Milan are set to host Monza at San Siro in the 38th round of the Serie A season.
There is now just one game remaining and the stakes are certainly low as Milan cannot secure European qualification. By contrast, Monza have already been relegated so, for them, this is a match about pride.
AC Milan Fighting for Europe
AC Milan are entering this game with mixed form. They have won five of their last eight in all competitions. The recent runs includes a 3-1 win over Bologna and a 2-1 win against Genoa.
That being said, they have recently lost the Coppa Italia final, with Bologna winning 1-0 on 14 May. In the league campaign, Milan have hit 60 points from 36 matches and are currently sitting at number eight in the table.
When looking at their attack, Milan’s numbers remain steady, with an average of 1.67 goals per match over their last six appearances. Defensively, they have conceded 0.67 goals per game in the same period suggesting that there’s a fairly balanced approach. It’s worth noting that the team has managed three clean sheets in those six matches.
Key to success this season has been the performances of Christian Pulisic. The winger has racked up 17 goals and 10 assists across all competitions and he’s become a critical part of the team’s attack. Rafael Leao is still providing width and creativity, while Tijjani Reijnders is banging in goals.
Monza: Relegated and Struggling
The Lombardy club has now lost five of its last six matches. Their only win in this time was a 2-1 victory against Udinese on 11 May. During that six match period, they have conceded 12 goals and scored just three. They are averaging just 0.5 goals per game, and these performances reflect the struggle that they have experienced all season. The end result is Serie B football next season.
After matches, Monza have collected just 18 points, with just three wins and nine draws. It’s fair to say that their defensive line has struggled against high-scoring opponents. Milan Djuric and Gianluca Caprari are the team’s top scorers, each finding the net six times this season.
It’s the lack of a consistent attacking threat and defensive resilience that has cost them dearly throughout the 2024-25 campaign.
Head-to-head Analysis
The two teams have come face-to-face multiple times over the past few seasons and the results have been heavily in Milan’s favour. In their last six meetings, Milan have claimed five victories, with Monza chalking up just one.
Their most recent clash, in November 2024, saw Milan win 1-0. Before that, a preseason friendly in August saw Milan dominante with a 3-1 win. When these teams meet, C MIlan average 2.33 goals while Monza comes up short with just 1.
That’s not to say that Monza has never had the upper edge. On 18 February 2024, Monza stunned Milan by winning 4-2 at home. This appears to be a one-off though, with Milan retaining superiority.
Tactical outlook
Milan are expected to field a 3-4-3 formation, with Pulisic and Leao on the wings, with Jovic leading up front. Their midfield will possibly be made up of Youssouf Fofana and Tijjani Reijnders and they will be tasked with controlling possession. Defensively, Theo Hernandez and Fikayo Tomori will be there to provide pace and strength at the back.
It’s likely that Monza will take a cautious approach with a 3-5-2 or 4-4-2 formation. They are likely to rely on set pieces and will be looking for explosive counter attacks. However, on recent form and results, Milan will be more than capable of dealing with this.
Market outlook and odds analysis
From a betting point of view, AC Milan are heavily favoured. When you look at aggregated odds coming from Odds88.io, Milan will almost always have short odds when playing at home. The gap in form, league position, and historical performances are all clearly reflected in the markets and it’s likely that the numbers will hover around 1.40 for a Milan win.
Monza comes with long odds, generally 8.00 or more. The over/under markets are suggesting that this could be a high scoring game, with many sportsbooks looking to favour over 2.5. This reflects Monza’s poor defensive form.
Final thoughts
This is a match where the outcome seems certain. Milan have had the best run of late and they still have something to play for. However, that’s not to say that Monza should be ignored as a betting opportunity. Key will be the full line up and any of the squad out with injury. If key players are missing for Milan, a punt on Monza could bring a pleasant surprise.
